1. Numerical Weather and Environmental Prediction and Nowcasting for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics Jocelyn Mailhot, George Issac and Charles Lin Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate November 16, 2009

2. Page 2 The Meteorological Service of Canada of Environment Canada has the mandate and contractual obligation to provide weather support and services for the safety and security of the public and the effective and efficient operation of the games. The issues include: Olympics: Feb 12-28, 2010 Paralympics: Mar 12-21, 2010 Event conditions and safety for public, television and competitors Venue operations for the public Support to essential federal services primarily security Transportation issues for VANOC

3. Page 3 Whistler/Blackcomb Area Sites

4. Page 4 Experimental numerical prediction system with 3 components 1.REPS - Regional Ensemble Prediction System (lead M. Charron) 2.high-resolution numerical prototype (lead J. Mailhot) –GEM-LAM model cascade down to 1 km (15km/2.5km/1km); –improved physics 3.land surface modeling and assimilation system at microscales (100 m) – (lead S. Bélair) Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) A World Weather Research Program Project (lead G. Issac) EC activities related to VO2010

5. Page 5 Forecasting challenges Some of the Olympic events have extremely sensitive thresholds for decision: Sport and Weather New Snow (24 hours) WindVisibilityRainLow Temp High Temp Wind Chill Downhill, Slalom, Giant Slalom > 30 cmConstant above 17 m/s or gusts > 17 m/s 15mm in 6 hours or less > -25 > 15 cm and < 30 cm Constant 11 m/s to 17 m/s < 20 m on portions of the course Mixed precipitation  5 cm  2 cm within 6h of an event Gusts above 14 m/s but >20m but <50m on whole or part of the course (Courtesy of C. Doyle) 2010 Sports/Weather Threshold matrix; Red text = Critical Decision point Orange text = Significant decision point Green text = Factor to consider

6. Page 6 1 km Whistler Production of high-resolution forecast 3 self-nested LAM integrations twice daily from 0600 and 1800 UTC GEM Regional forecasts: LAM-15km → 2.5km → 1km GEM LAM 06Z 18Z 12Z 00Z 15 km – 20 h 2.5 km – 17 h 1.0 km – 15 h 3h 2h Daily Nesting Strategy 15 km 1.0 km 2.5 km R1R2R1 R2 00Z Vancouver 15 km 2.5 km

7. Page 7 Improved physics: 1.geophysical fields (orography, surface roughness,…) using new GenPhysX and database at 90-m res; 2.CCCmarad radiation scheme (solar + infrared); 3.Milbrandt-Yau double-moment bulk microphysics (with a prognostic snow/liquid ratio for snow density); New model diagnostic outputs: –visibility reduction due to hydrometeors (fog, rain, and snow); –cloud base, melting level, snow base; –solid-to-liquid ratio for snow density; –diagnostics of surface wind gusts and wind variances (speed + direction); Customized output package: –based on Olympic forecasters feedback (products, display format,…); –comprehensive list of 2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and cross-sections; –easy display (jpeg images with MetViewer). New features and products

8. Page 8 List of model outputs (2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and cross-sections): PLAN MAPS: Screen-level potential temperature θ Screen-level relative humidity (relative to liquid phase) 10-m winds Wind gusts (gust estimates, minimum and maximum values) Standard deviations of 10-m wind speed and direction Accumulated precipitation types (liquid/freezing/snow/frozen) Precipitation accumulation (liquid / solid / total) Precipitation rate (solid / liquid / total) Snow/liquid ratio {S2L} Cloud cover (high/ mid/ low + total) Cloud base height Visibility (through fog, rain, snow, plus total) Freezing level (m - 0°C isotherm level) Snow level (m – lowest level with non-zero snow rate) Wind chill factor Customized output package

9. Page 9 Wind forecast at VOH, 1643m, top of 2010 Men’s downhill 15 March 23 UTC to 16 March 14 UTC 15/23Z run See poster by A. Giguère et al.: 3D-100-A9.3 “In-situ evaluation of the GEM-LAM 1.0km model in preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games” Estimated wind gust, maximum and minimum gust, surface (10m) wind speed +/- 1 std dev surface (10m) wind directn +/- 1 std dev

10. Page 10 Verifications for VO2010 Olympic Autostation Network (OAN) consists of: about 40 standard and special surface observing sites (hourly or synop available on GTS); (relatively) large number of surface stations, concentrated in small region; Verifications based on a set of 10 cases (winter 2008); representative of “bad” weather conditions for the area; frontal passages, heavy snow, change of PCP phases, valley clouds, strong wind gusts,…

11. Temperature (2 m) Wind Speeds (10 m) Average of 10 Cases Evaluation – Near-surface winds and temperature kts CC CC REG-15km 2.5 km 1 km RMS BIAS Significant improvements at 1 km for winds and temperatures (also 2.5 km) with respect to operational regional REG-15km model

12. Page 12 2 Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) – A World Weather Research Programme Project by George A. Isaac 1, S. Bélair 2, A. Bott 3, B. Brown 4, M. Charron 2, S. G. Cober 1, C. Doyle 5, W. F. Dabberdt 6, D. Forsyth, 7, G. L. Frederick 6, I. Gultepe 1, P. Joe 1, T. D. Keenan 8, J. Koistinen 9, J. Mailhot 2, M. Mueller 10, R. Rasmussen 4, R. E. Stewart 11, B. J. Snyder 5 and Donghai Wang 12 1 Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada 2 Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 3 University of Bonn, Germany 4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 5 Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada 6 Vaisala, Louisville, Colorado, USA 7 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA 8 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia 9 Finish Meteorological Institute, Finland 10 University of Basel, Switzerland 11 University of Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada 12 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China

13. Page 13 Main Goals of SNOW-V10 Related to Nowcasting in Complex Terrain (Developed at March 08 Workshop) To improve our understanding and ability to forecast/nowcast low cloud, and visibility; To improve our understanding and ability to forecast precipitation amount and type; To improve forecasts of wind speed, gusts and direction; To develop better forecast system production system(s). Assess and evaluate value to end users; To increase the capacity of WMO member states (Training component).

14. Page 14 Builds on Existing EC R&D Projects: High Resolution Modelling, CAN-Now, and FRAM Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project (CAN-Now) Fog Remote Sensing And Modeling project (FRAM)

15. Page 15 Harvey’s Cloud Currently have a good array of equipment on Whistler at Creekside at ARQB, VOA, VOL, and TFL with plans for RND. Most of SNOW-V10 data from instruments are now being displayed on Web site (http://www.snow-v10.ca). Model data is now showing up.http://www.snow-v10.ca

16. Page 16 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS : VALID AT 2010-02-13 16:00 GMT PASTNOW NOWCAST -6h-5h-4h-3h-2h-1h+15+30+45+1h+15+30+45+2h+3h+4h+5h+6h GMT TIME10111213141516171819202122 WIND [m/s]10 121099888 15202215 GUSTS [m/s]0050003335515 1015 10 VIS [m]100+ SNOW [cm] 0000000000000000000 RAIN [mm] 0000000000000000000 T [C]-18 -16-15 -14-13 -10-14-16-15-16 WIND CHILL [C]-20 -18 -15 -12-15-20 -25 -20 SNOW V10 Venue Forecast: Whistler Creekside Downhill/Slolam/Giant Slolam Pig Alley/Mid Station/Timing Flats Click on box would give reason for alert and indication of confidence (from forecaster or verification scores) in forecast. All boxes would likely contain a range of values or most likely value. Prototype Product Under Discussion

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20. Page 20 VOA Vis VOL Vis VOA Precip VOL Precip Graphs show value of 1 min data in complex terrain where conditions change rapidly

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23. Page 23 Examples of Products from Whistler C-Band Doppler Radar on March 23rd

24. Page 24 Participating Groups Observing Systems and Associated Nowcast Systems  EC Region OAN Sites  EC Research Sites  UBC (McKendry) and U. Manitoba (Stewart)  NCAR WSDDM System + (Rasmussen)  BOM STEPS System (Seed)  NSSL Radar (Forseyth)  FMI (Koistinen) Modeling Systems  EC Research Models  WDT (Carpenter)  China (Donghai Wang )  Austria INCA (Haiden)  Germany (Bott)  Switzerland (Mueller)  NOAA and UK Met Office Verification  EC Team  NCAR (Brown) “Need for formal participant agreement”

25. Page 25 Products During Olympics Each group will produce a Table showing 24 hour forecast of significant variables for main venue sites (hourly intervals and 10 to 15 min intervals in first two hours). Similar to what forecasters produce. A Research Support Desk will be run during Olympics and Paralympics (virtual and on-site). –These products lead to a common verification strategy.

26. Page 26 Summary The Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games provides a unique opportunity for international collaboration on the science of winter nowcasting in complex terrain. A team of scientists has agreed to participate in the project and the WMO/WWRP has endorsed SNOW-V10 as a project. Representatives from Canada, USA, China, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Austria, and Australia are so far involved. A DRAFT science plan has been developed and can be found on the Web site: http://www.snow-v10.ca/.http://www.snow-v10.ca/ Following a successful Workshop in March/09 in Whistler another is planned for the Fall of 09 in Toronto.