1. Presented to: NAS-Wide Simulation Workshop By: Kimberly Noonan, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning Date: January 28, 2010 Federal Aviation Administration NextGen Modeling in NASPAC

2. Federal Aviation Administration 2 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Modernized NASPAC Environment Fleet Evolution Trajectory Module Sector Crossings Core Queuing Model Capacity Scheduler Future Schedule Generato r Output Parser Itinerary Generation Industry/ Regulatory Response GDP Generator Preprocessor (Demand) Output Parser Preprocessor ( Capacity)

3. Federal Aviation Administration 3 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 ETMS TAF Modernized NASPAC Environment Wx = weather TAF = Terminal Area Forecast MAP = Monitor Alert Parameter ETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System Pareto Curves MAP Values Wx Flight Table Airport Table Sector Table Fleet Evolution Unconstrained Traj.-Based Forecast (2D) Constrained Traj.-Based Forecast (2D) Trajectory Module 4D Trajectories Sector Crossings Core Queuing Model Delay Wx Time dependent Airport Capacities Time dependent Sector Capacities Unsatisfied Demand Capacity Scheduler Future Schedule Generator Output Parser Itinerary Generation Industry/ Regulatory Response Wind Field Sector Geometries Fuel Burn Rate Δ Fuel Burn Flight Delays Fleet Forecast GDP Generator Flow Restriction Defns & Caps

4. Federal Aviation Administration 4 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Airport Capacity Scheduler Modeling airport capacity –Previously Used ceiling and visibility to determine VMC, MMC, and IMC conditions and apply associated capacity curve –Now Considers wind speed, wind direction, and time of day Use special condition curves –Configuration specific –Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD)

5. Federal Aviation Administration 5 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Previously –No GDP module Now –GDP generator identifies GDPs and assigns expected departure clearance times Given flight times and weather dependent airport capacities Flights assigned arrival slot based on priority –Distance based tiers –International flights exempt –Airport specific GDP triggers Max flight delay Max queue length Next –Airline response and cancellation module –Probabilistic GDP triggers –Probabilistic weather forecast Ground Delay Program (GDP) Generator

6. Federal Aviation Administration 6 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Model Q-Routes –Previously No special treatment –Now Allow equipped flights, between certain city pairs to fly special routes Impose aircraft separation standards using restrictions Performance Based Navigation (PBN)

7. Federal Aviation Administration 7 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Oceanic Separation Previously –Flights flew unconstrained in oceanic airspace Now –Oceanic separation standards imposed using static restrictions –Considers lead/following aircraft type/equipage to determine separation Next –Incorporate altitude restrictions –Oceanic in-trail climb and descent ZOA

8. Federal Aviation Administration 8 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs) –Previously All flights had continuous descent arrivals Estimated time/fuel inefficiencies by historical data analysis –Now Assign each flight to a STAR –based on route and equipage Define more detailed 4-D trajectory –with altitude restrictions Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs) –Similar technique implemented SIDs and STARs

9. Federal Aviation Administration 9 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Previously –Baseline equipment data used throughout forecast Soon –Evolve future fleet equipment to meet forecast –Equipment categories include Datacomm ADS-B In and Out PBN: RNAV and RNP Equipage Evolution Notional PBN Forecast Notional ADS-B Forecast

10. Federal Aviation Administration 10 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010 Next Steps Incorporate Traffic Flow Management (TFM) –Airspace Flow Programs Improve Terminal Approach Control (TRACON) –Update and automate arrival fix and departure fix flows –Incorporate fix balancing Improve local and en-route weather effects –Model severe IMC conditions Incorporate dynamic events –Dynamic rerouting, dynamic sectorization Include Monte Carlo simulation capability –Re-factored source code Validation, validation, validation

11. Federal Aviation Administration 11 NextGen Modeling in NASPAC 28 January 2010