1. Weather Information to the Cockpit and Automated ATM Tenny Lindholm FAA New Technologies Workshop III 9-10 January 2007

2. Define “Weather in the Cockpit” “…a system combining and presenting various types of weather information [or decision support, weather impact variables] obtained through multiple data-link sources, on-board remote sensors, and in-situ sensors to aid crews with effective flight management” NASA AvSP “Employ the aircraft as a node in the National Airspace System’s communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) network. Enable flight deck weather information technologies that allow pilots and aircrews to engage in shared situational awareness and shared responsibilities with controllers, dispatchers, Flight Service Station (FSS) specialists, and others, pertaining to preflight, en route, and post flight aviation safety decisions involving weather.” FAA-AVS Vision

3. Guiding Principles WIC and ATM Weather is a constraint on the system—hence, weather information is essential for effective ATM decision support All users require a common weather picture, or awareness of the state of the environment High “glance value” and information content, not data Weather forecasting is uncertain, will never be exact -> risk management vs. risk avoidance Decision support rules differ by user, type of decision Human in the loop still needed En route weather DSS must include terminal constraints Concept of operations needed for “now” and graceful transition to the “future”—NGATS

4. Who Benefits? The NAS The “triad” All airborne users—Parts 91, 121, 135, DoD Emerging VLJ dominance Low, mid, and high altitude Potentially large numbers Single pilot operations, unique human factors challenges

5. R&D Gap Analysis Weather information products—moving forward with development and operational transition Data link capability (satellite, UAT, Mode S,…)—technology is there Display and flight deck integration development—moving forward Gap: in the application and operational use areas We have weather information, know how to get it in the cockpit, and display it. Now, how is it used? The approval process needs guidance on operational concept and must be in lockstep with research and development.

6. WIC Concept of Operations Two workshops, Boulder and Orlando -Industry, users, government, R&D communities well represented -Conops v.3 completed on 15 Nov which includes input from workshops and offline feedback Complete v1.0 early 2007 This is a living document that will evolve with NGATS, and referenced by WxIPT Conops http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/wic

7. We are Addressing… What we need to do to approve a source of weather information for unrestricted operational use - Approval must consider the science as well as the implementation of the science - It must also consider vendor-created weather products, both value- added features and products created using vendor software Therefore, for WIC and ATM implementation, approval spans the processes used to create and verify grids; produce products uniformly from grids; transmit them to data link processors and aircraft; and parallel transmission to AOC, ATC Plus, weather impact translation issues associated with DSS for ATM And, the timeframe is now through 2025!

8. Weather Hazard Areas from Users High Spatial/temporal Resolution Graphical, Related to Flight Profile Turbulence Icing Ceiling and visibility –Terminal –National Storms –Winter –Convective Oceanic/remote (weather, volcanic ash) ADDS (not appropriate for WIC; however, functionality and user interface aspects may be appropriate)

9. Turbulence Injures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers Injures Cabin Crew and Frightens Passengers

10. Turbulence TurbulenceTurbulence Icing Convection Winds/Temps Progs Java Tools METARs TAFs PIREPs AIR/SIGMETs Satellite Radar Page loaded: 18:20 UTC 10:20 AM Pacific | 11:20 AM Mountain | 12:20 PM Central | 01:20 PM Eastern kIcingConvectionWinds/TempsProgsJava Tools METARsTAFsPIREPsAIR/SIGMETsSatelliteRadar18:20 UTC G

11. Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Model based, currently clear air turbulence Other modes (mountain wave, convective) will be integrated as they are developed Operational with restrictions (meteorologists and dispatchers only) 4-D grid with probability Will include in situ downlink data, possibly NEXRAD (NTDA) 10,000 feet to FL450 (8 Jan 07)

12. Winter Weather Affects Aircraft In-flight and on the Ground

13. In-flight Icing Causes Dangerous Loss of Lift and Control

14. Inflight Icing

15. Current and Forecast Icing (CIP/FIP) Current icing with severity, probability, and super-cooled large droplet (SLD) volume (6 Dec 06) Forecast icing potential 4-D grid Operational. Status: “By FAA policy CIP is a Supplementary Weather Product for enhanced situational awareness only and must be used with one or more primary products (safety decision) such as AIRMET or SIGMET (ref AIM).” 1000 feet to FL300

16. Ceiling and Visibility Contributes to General Aviation Accidents and Air Carrier Delays

17. Air Carriers at San Francisco Are Regularly Impacted by Low Ceiling and Visibility Darin Bishop

18. Ceiling and Visibility (National) (May 07) Status of FAA National- Scale Work

19. Thunderstorms Cause Accidents and Delays

20. Storms National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) NCWF. “The NCWF is an automatically generated depiction of: (1) current convection and (2) extrapolated significant current convection. It is a supplement to, but does not substitute for, the report and forecast information contained in convective SIGMETs.” NCWF-2 and probability Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation, preliminary design review (PDR) Oct 06

21. NCWF-2

22. Information Dissemination Is Key to Improved Weather Decision Making

24. Oceanic/Remote Oceanic Weather Cloud Top Height -- Realtime System -- Pacific Experimental Product -- NOT for Operational Use This Page requires Javascript You will need Netscape version 3.0 or higher or Internet Explorer 3.0 or higher and Javascript enabled to view this. *** Caching may need to be turned off for images to update *** Click here to see the current character-based cockpit tactical displays. Click here to see the current graphical cockpit tactical displays. Return to OWPDT Web Home Author: Gary Blackburn NCAR/RAL, P.O.Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000 blackbrn@ucar.edu Last modified 22 September 2004 blackbrn@ucar.edu

26. HEMS (Helicopter Operations)

27. Flight Path Tool Application (Functions Apply With Any 4-D Gridded Data)

28. Vendor Products and Services

29. European/North America Harmonization SESAR (single European sky initiatives) and NGATS harmonization FIS-B, format and weather content harmonization; extension to ICAO member states Efforts are underway—FAA, EUROCONTROL; RTCA, EUROCAE - Operational Services and Environment Description (OSED, operational concept) and Final Review and Comment (FRAC) process -Workshops (US, Europe), engagement of approval authorities, data link community during document development –Europe – workshop planned for July 2007 –US – presentation planned at NASA ICNS (May 2007) and possible Airlines Electronic Engineering Committee (AEEC) meetings (April and July 2007)

30. R&D Areas To support approval process and implementation Application Human factors Translation from information to DSS Continued weather forecast improvement, hazard definition Probability Verification techniques Interpretation relative to decision needed Probabilistic forecasts and their use

31. Questions Tenny Lindholm, lindholm@ucar.edulindholm@ucar.edu http://rap.ucar.edu/projects/wic

32. Backup Slides

33. Suggested Questions What is the current operational approval process for emerging weather products? What is the current paradigm for operational control, and how will it have to change if WIC is going to make an improvement? WIC is already out there and being used. Why is there a need to change anything and just let the market drive what is available? Given weather information uncertainty, how do you see it being used an automated ATM environment? Weather is and will always be a constraint on the NAS. Since we cannot change the weather, how can the NAS benefit from improved information? How is the R&D community making their products available to the FAA and industry?

34. Why Weather Information to the Cockpit? “…common weather picture for all users…” First, weather information is essential for effective ATM decision support. Weather is a constraint on the system. Weather products should be of high information content and high “glance value.” They should be 4- dimensional (space and time) so that a 4-D flight profile can be related to the weather information. Weather information will always have some degree of uncertainty. Therefore, effective ATM will most likely not tolerate deterministic-type decisions (like closing airspace). To take advantage of the uncertainty characteristic of weather information, consideration should be given to using probabilistic weather forecasts and then basing decisions on expected value (or cost) of a particular course of action—risk management as opposed to risk avoidance. This concept allows for “shades of gray” between binary decision extremes. Giving consideration for the uncertainty, an operational concept for the use of integrated weather products is essential for both automated and semi-automated decision support (they will be different). Consideration should be given to keep the human in the ATM decision loop to take advantage of human judgment. It will be difficult to arrive at a complete set of rules for all situations needed to fully automate ATM functions. Decision support rules and thresholds for weather will be different for different users and operators as well as for different regions and weather hazards. These automation decision support capabilities will be directly integrated with weather information so that candidate solutions to weather-related problems can be rapidly developed and presented to decision makers for consideration. An en route DSS must include consideration for the terminals as well.