1. Understanding victim experiences of violence Professor Susan McVie University of Edinburgh Crime Survey Users Conference, December 2010

2. Aims of paper This paper will use data from the 2008/09 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey to explore the forms of violence experienced by adults (aged 16 or over) in Scotland and identify the profiles of those most at risk from these different forms of violence.

3. The Scottish context Scotland has been named the most violent country in the developed world (BBC coverage of a UN report, 2005) Scotland has the second highest murder rate in Europe (Guardian report of a WHO study, 2005) Police Recorded Crime rates show a substantial increase in minor assault since 1992, but not serious or sexual crimes or violent theft ( Scottish Executive 2002, Scottish Government 2010 ) Data from the Scottish Crime Surveys confirms that there has been an increase in minor violence over the same period (Matthews & Bolling 2007) Predominant perception in Scotland is that we have a major problem with violence and knife crime involving young males

4. Research evidence There are many studies of violence, most of which have shown that: –Young, single males are at most risk of violence –as victims and offenders –There is a strong relationship between violent victimization and offending –Violence is often part of a generally risky lifestyle –Victims of street-based violence tend to be from less affluent backgrounds –The profile of victims of domestic & sexual violence is very different Studies which look at the relationship between violence and other types of crime tend to focus on property crime or vandalism Most research has tended to focus on one specific type of violence (e.g. domestic, sexual, street-based, youth, etc) There are few studies that explore individual experiences of different forms of violence –WHO world report on violence and health (The Lancet, 2002) –Various studies linking child abuse/neglect to later offending

5. Research evidence There are many studies of violence, most of which have shown that: –Young, single males are at most risk of violence –as victims and offenders –There is a strong relationship between violent victimization and offending –Violence is often part of a generally risky lifestyle –Victims of street-based violence tend to be from less affluent backgrounds –The profile of victims of domestic & sexual violence is very different Studies which look at the relationship between violence and other types of crime tend to focus on property crime or vandalism Most research has tended to focus on one specific type of violence (e.g. domestic, sexual, street-based, youth, etc) There are few studies that explore individual experiences of different forms of violence –WHO world report on violence and health (The Lancet, 2002) –Various studies linking child abuse/neglect to later offending

6. Research Questions To what extent do individuals experience multiple forms of violence? Is there a violent victimization typology? What are the characteristics of those who experience multiple forms of violence, and do they differ from others? What are the implications for policy and practice?

7. Methodology Analysis of the 2008/9 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey Household survey, sampling one adult (age 16 or over) per household Sample size = 16003 (Main Q) and 10974 (SC Q) Using data from Victim Form, Main Questionnaire and Self-completion Questionnaire Descriptive analysis, latent class analysis and regression modelling

8. Source: SCJS Technical Report, TNS Global 2009

9. Methodological challenges Identifying all victims –restricted to those who experienced violence within the last year reference period –taking account of those who experienced violence outside Scotland –uncapping the number of times people had experienced victimization Merging three datasets & identifying the base sample Using four separate statistical packages Dealing with complex weighting

10. Defining violence Violent assault (VF) –minor & serious assault Violent threats (VF) –threats to kill, sexual threats, other threat or intimidation Violent theft (VF) –robbery Sexual violence (SCQ & VF) –sexual assault, indecent exposure, unwanted touching Partner violence (SCQ) –Psychological and/or physical violence Stalking and harassment (SCQ) –Obscene phone calls, threatening texts/letters, followed or watched

11. Prevalence of violence in last year - 1 Violent theft (n=16003) Sexual violence (n=10974) Partner violence (n=10974) Violent threats (n=16003) Violent assault (n=16003) Stalking and harassment (n=10974) Number of victims (MQ sample) 42142284374517659 Number of victims (SCQ sample) 24139284261395659 % victims 0.21.32.62.43.66.0 Number in Scottish population (estimate) 10,25644,67084,20684,092133,721189,873 Figures based on analysis of the 2008/09 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey

12. Prevalence of violence in last year - 2 NoneOne type Two types Three types Four + types Any type Number of respondents (n=10974) 9,5911,08622669101,383 % of respondents 87.49.92.10.60.112.6 % of victims -78.516.34.40.7100

13. LCA analysis for 6 types of violence (all cases)

15. Explanatory model Multinomial regression using these explanatory variables: –Age * –Sex * –NSSEC * –Marital status * –Ethnicity –Tenure * –Household income * –Simd – top 15% –PFA –Urban/rural –Sentenced offender *

16. Odds ratios Intimate violence Chronic violence Assault only GenderMale0.717 1.240 1.798*** Femaleref Ref ref Age group16-241.511*1.565 1.848*** 25-44ref Ref ref 45-650.356***0.225***0.638*** 66+0.068***0.019***0.110*** NSSECManager1.490 0.389*1.297 Intermediate0.965 0.366**0.773 Routineref Not employed1.102 1.050 0.781 FT Student1 0.745 0.567** StatusCouple0.450***0.202***0.679*** Singleref TenureRenter/other1.392 2.236**1.731*** Home ownerref IncomeRef/DK0.548**0.936 0.974 <£10k1.288 0.791 0.870 £10-£40kref £40k+0.609 0.424 0.655** OffenderYes2.553***1.981 2.390*** Noref Reference = non violence group; N=10863; nagelkerke =.137; *** p<.01, **p<.05, * p<.1 difference in odds ratios compared to reference gps.

17. LCA analysis for 6 types of violence (victims only)

18. Conclusions Published crime survey figures show that a relatively low proportion of Scottish adults are victims of violent assaults each year; however, prevalence more than doubles when wider forms of violence are considered Amongst victims of violence, there are some interesting sub- populations who experience multiple forms of violence – particularly those who experience intimate violence Regression analysis indicates that there are both similarities and differences in the underlying demographic characteristics of these sub-populations There is a need to maximise the value of the survey and use it to explore victimisation holistically

19. Limitations Even for a survey of this size, numbers of rare events are small Recall periods vary for different questions Lack of longitudinal data Lack of data on violent offending May be reporting problems (e.g. for sexual offences)

20. References Krug et al (2002) The World Report on Violence and Health, The Lancet, vol 360, issue 9339, pp1083-1088 Brown, M. and Bolling, K. (2007) 2006 Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey: Main Findings, Edinburgh. Scottish Executive (2002) Statistical Bulletin: Criminal Justice Series: Recorded Crime in Scotland 2001 Scottish Government (2007) Statistical Bulletin: Crime and Justice Series: Homicide in Scotland 2006-07 Scottish Government (2010) Statistical Bulletin: Crime and Justice Series: Recorded Crime in Scotland 2009-10 SCJS Technical Report, TNS Global 2009 Van Dijk et al (2008) Criminal Victimisation in International Perspective: Key findings from the 2004-2005 ICVS and EU ICS. The Hague, Boom Legal Publishers