1. Research on the Statistical Range of International Agricultural Trade Qi Wang Yonghua Sun Zhihong Tian October 22, 2007

2. Key Issues What is the actuality of research on statistics range of agricultural trade? Comparison and analysis on commonly used statistical methods of agricultural trade How might HS and SITC for agricultural products range be matched? Possible suggestions

3. Actuality of Researches Agricultural trade plays significant role in China Statistical method is the basic issue of agricultural trade Two issues ： 1. How to specify the product range of agricultural product ? 2. How to match different statistical methods?

4. Problems Exist Currently Two statistical systems are widely used in international agricultural trade 1.United Nations Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) 2. Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) Complicated statistical methods result in disagreement in specification of agricultural product range

5. Problems Exist Currently Product range is various among different statistical methods, leading to incongruity with research findings Conclusions of researches into agricultural trade balance have contradictions because of the difference in choice of statistical methods and data sources The key point is the consistency of product range under different systems

6. Estimated Results of China's Agricultural Trade Balance （ 100 million US dollars ） YearMethod 1Method 2Method 3Method 4Method 5Method 6 199622.8851.8833.5534.237.89-31.76 199736.5568.8649.3750.2425.12-28.77 199844.4163.8455.1455.9734.42-12.36 199942.6958.1053.3153.7335.80-10.87 200033.4454.1744.0344.4217.13-22.77 200134.0156.8641.9642.2914.71-34.01 200216.4270.7056.5856.9727.00-16.42 2003-5.0051.3224.3124.97-13.31—

7. Considerable differences lie in the agricultural trade balance under six statistics approaches It is necessary to define a complete, accurate and comparable range of agricultural products to find the corresponding relationship between SITC and HS

8. Analysis on Common Statistical Methods HS and SITC are standard statistical systems aim at advancing international trade statistics standardization issued by Custom Cooperation Council and U.N. Statistical Commission Such international organizations as WTO, UNCTAD and FAO specify the statistical range based on their own needs

9. Common Statistical Methods Agricultural Product Statistical Range of URAA The first 24 Chapters of HS The category of URAA plus aquatic products in first 24 Chapters of HS The category of URAA plus all aquatic products FAO Agricultural Definition Based on SITC UNCTAD Agricultural Definition and ITS Agricultural Definition of WTO

10. Each statistical method has its own context of application and rationality, while there are flaws China has never had a comprehensive and authoritative statistical system. It requires to define on contingent aim and demand of researches, adverse to trade and economic research Establish standards for agricultural trade statistical system and corresponding database, improving this fundamental work of agricultural trade

11. Alignment Between HS and SITC There is a demand for matching product codes of HS and SITC The alignment of HS and SITC is the basis of establishing standard statistical system Product range covers agricultural products defined by URAA and all of the aquatic products, which are matched according to product codes under HS and SITC

12. Plan of Alignment （ 1 ） The relationship is neither close nor practical for alignment of agricultural products between HS and SITC under two digit tariff items Take four digit tariff items of HS as the benchmark to correspond the agricultural products under SITC to three digit tariff items Align product codes under HS with that of SITC

13. Example Four digit tariff item （ HS ） 0201 － 0202 include 6 eight digit tariff items, such as fresh beef and freeze beef. These items are in correspondence with three digit item 011 of SITC 0201 (HS) 0202 (HS) 011(SITC)

14. A total of 61 heads of SITC three digit tariff items correlate with 229 HS four digit tariff items It almost covers all of the tradable agricultural products currently A number of products of four digit tariff items under HS are in line with one product of three digit tariff items under SITC In other cases, one product under HS four digit tariff items is consistent with two products under three digit tariff items of SITC

15. Plan of Alignment （ 2 ） Take three digit tariff items of SITC as the benchmark to correspond the agricultural products under HS to four digit tariff items Plan of alignment is different when HS and SITC are benchmarks separately Plan of alignment based on SITC include all the corresponding relationship on HS

16. Possible Suggestions A complete, exact and comparable definition of agricultural product range will provide a solution to the above problem Design a complete and authoritative statistical system which is applicable to Chinese agricultural context and characteristics of agricultural products A unified agricultural statistical database is required in order to meet the demand of departments, institutions and academic research

17. Thank You!