1. Open policy practice: open science- based assessments for decision-makers Jouni Tuomisto National Institute for Health and Welfare, Kuopio, Finland

2. Outline Information flow in policy support Examples of open assessments Shared understanding Six principles of open policy practice Structure of information objects Lessons learned from open policy practice

3. Outline 1.We could start with a brief intro on Why Opasnet... what made you want to build the platform and what were your initial expectations when you first started the project. 2.If you think it is important we could also take some time to talk about the process of its design and what worked and what didn’t. 3.Then we could continue with more on the features, insights and data of the website or on the open risk assessment method of research and sharing scientific knowledge. 4.Finally, we could talk on how has Opasnet been used for social good and your vision on the future of the platform. “How have you proven that your tool works in practice to solve a clear, identified problem?” 3

4. Information flow in current decision support Original data Scientific publications CBA, impact assessment etc. Scientific review Report Practical knowledge and lobbying Civil servant Stakeholders Researchers Expert Decision maker

5. Open policy practice Open original data Scientific analysis Other scientific literature Open assessment Report Practical knowledge and lobbying Civil servant Stakeholders Researchers Expert Decision maker

6. What are open assessment and Opasnet? Open assessment –How can scientific information and value judgements be organised for informing societal decision making in a situation where open participation is allowed? –[Previous names: open risk assessment, pyrkilo] Opasnet –What is a web workspace that contains all functionalities needed when performing open assessments, based on open source software only?

7. Why Opasnet? Need for systematic flow of and place for relevant information –Scientific data and interpretations –Valuations and discussions –Decision options and objectives –Models and scenarios 7

8. Tendering process for pneumococcal vaccine Need to buy a new vaccine for the Finnish vaccination program (ca. 150000 doses per year). What should be the decision criteria? This question was answered by using an open hearing in Opasnet.an open hearing –Epidemiological model about health impacts of vaccines. –Cost effectiveness model including price and health costs. –Online discussion forum about valuations and assumptions. Best outcome: no outrage! –Reasons: Specific question, moderation? Drug companies were active, anti-vaccine groups were not. Little outside researcher involvement. 8

9. Other projects and assessments in Opasnet (1) Climate change policies and health in Kuopio, FinlandClimate change policies and health Future overview reports of Finnish ministries (Transport and Logistics; Health; Environment)Transport and LogisticsHealthEnvironment Evaluation and summary of several climate policy reports, strategies, and programs of the city of Helsinki.Evaluation and summary Health and ecological risks of mining (guidance and models)Health and ecological risks Water guide for assessing health risks of raw water contamination.Water guide 9

10. Other projects and assessments in Opasnet (2) http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Ymp%C3%A4rist%C3%B6nsuojelulaki Environmental protection lawhttp://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Ymp%C3%A4rist%C3%B6nsuojelulaki http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Rauman_sataman_laajennuksen_vaikutus_ter veyteen Urban planning in Raumahttp://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Rauman_sataman_laajennuksen_vaikutus_ter veyteen –http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Pienhiukkasp%C3%A4%C3%A4st%C3%B6t_Ra umalla Assessment of fine particles from the Port of Raumahttp://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Pienhiukkasp%C3%A4%C3%A4st%C3%B6t_Ra umalla http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Kilometrikorvaus_AM_2012 Compensation for work-based drivinghttp://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Kilometrikorvaus_AM_2012 http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Puijon_metsien_k%C3%A4ytt%C3%B6suunni telman_p%C3%A4%C3%A4t%C3%B6ksenteko Use of Puijo forest areahttp://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Puijon_metsien_k%C3%A4ytt%C3%B6suunni telman_p%C3%A4%C3%A4t%C3%B6ksenteko

11. Main findings from Pohjola et al 2012: In environmental health assessments there are tendencies towards: a) increased engagement between assessors, decision makers, and stakeholders b) more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessments c) integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains d) inclusion of values, alongside scientific facts, in explicit consideration in assessment

12. Shared understanding: graph Pohjola MV et al: Food and Chemical Toxicology. 2011.

13. Shared understanding: definition There is shared understanding about a topic within a group, if everyone is able to explain what thoughts and reasonings there are about the topic. –There is no need to know all thoughts on individual level. –There is no need to agree on things (just to agree on what the disagreements are about).

14. Principles of open policy practice Intentionality Causality Shared information objects Criticism Openness Reuse http://en.opasnet.org/w/Open_policy_practice

15. Six principles of open policy practice Intentionality: All that is done aims to offer better understanding to the decision maker about outcomes of the decision. Shared information objects: all information is shared using a systematic structure and a common workspace where all participants can work. Causality: The focus is on understanding the causal relations between the decision options and the intended outcomes. Critique: All information presented can be criticised based on relevance and accordance to observations. Reuse: All information is produced in a format that can easily be used for other purposes by other people. Openness: All work and all information is openly available to anyone interested. Participation is free. If there are exceptions, these must be publicly justified. http://en.opasnet.org/w/Open_policy_practice

16. An example of an open assessment Health impact of radon in Europe

17. An example of a variable in a model

18. An example of a statement and resolution of a discussion Is Pandemrix a safe vaccine?

19. Application of soRvi in Opasnet

20. Results from soRvi

21. Problems perceived about open participation 1.It is unclear who decides about the content. 2.Expertise is not given proper weight. 3.Strong lobbying groups will hijack the process. 4.Random people are too uneducated to contribute meaningfully. 5.The discussion disperses and does not focus. 6.Those who are now in a favourable position in the assessment or decision-making business don’t want to change things. 7.The existing practices, tools, and software are perceived good enough. 8.There is not enough staff to keep this running. 9.People don’t participate: not seen useful, no time, no skills. 10.People want to hide what they know (and publish it in a scientific journal).

22. Problems observed about open participation 1.People want to hide what they know (and publish it in a scientific journal). 2.People don’t participate: not seen useful, no time, no skills. 3.The existing practices, tools, and software are perceived good enough. 4.There is not enough staff to keep this running. 5.Those who are now in a favourable position in the assessment or decision-making business don’t want to change things. 6.The discussion disperses and does not focus. 7.It is unclear who decides about the content. 8.Expertise is not given proper weight. 9.Strong lobbying groups will hijack the process. 10.Random people are too uneducated to contribute meaningfully.

23. Main rules in open assessment (1) Each main topic should have its own page. –Sub-topics are moved to own pages as necessary. Each topic has the same structure: –Question (a research question passing the clairvoyant test) –Answer (a collection of hypotheses as answers to the question) –Rationale (evidence and arguments to support, attack, and falsify hypotheses and arguments) ALL topics are open to discussion at all times by anyone. –Including things like ”what is open assessment”

24. Main rules in open assessment (2) Discussions are organised around a statement. A statement is either about facts (what is?) or moral values (what should be?) All statements are valid unless they are invalidated, i.e. attacked with a valid argument [sword]. The main types of attacks are to show that the statement is –irrelevant in its context, –illogical, or –inconsistent with observations or expressed values. Statements can have defending arguments [shield].

25. Main rules in open assessment (3) Uncertainties are expressed as subjective probabilities. A priori, opinions of each person are given equal weight. A priori, all conflicting statements are considered equally likely.

26. Future promises and challenges Technically, Opasnet works surprisingly well. Personally, I am able to do almost all my work in Opasnet. Many people see open participation and expert + decision-maker collaboration as a promising approach. However, many reasons for resistance: –Open practices are a threat to expert authority. –People don’t want to show intermediate work. –Old tools are considered better for each specific task.  Now it is time for new ambitious collaboration and community for open online modelers/assessors.  Course DARM starts at UEF Jan13, 2015! 26

28. Conclusions We could do most of our scientific work online using shared information systems and web workspaces (such as Opasnet). These tools exist and are functional. The work would be quicker and better. There are major obstacles of new practices: –Lack of awareness. –Lack of practical knowledge to use tools. –Current practices and incentives are against sharing. –Reluctance to change things. Join Decision Analysis and Risk Management in 8 Jan – 14 Feb 2013!

29. History briefly: borrowing and combining ideas –1996: EU Parliament visit: ”Information does not flow!” –1997: Idea of Internet-based assessments –2000: Decision analysis (Harvard University) –2005: Wikipedia, wiki approach –2006: Opasnet wiki launched –2006: Wikinomics, mass collaboration, wisdom of crowds –2006: Argumentation rules (Amsterdam University) –2007: Open assessment –2009: Wiki government –2011: online wiki modeling using R –2012: MongoDB database –2013: Open policy practice (guidance for making decisions) –2014: Several policy projects without research funding 29

30. Framework for TEKAISU method

31. Open risk management: overview QRAQRA Mikko V Pohjola and Jouni T Tuomisto.. Environmental Health 2011, 10: 58 doiEnvironmental Health 2011, 10: 58doi Public health data

32. How Opasnet helps in assessments https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1f1s 1drjo8qMJ- vWR3BQgsfRbH2DO0E43Xb01eRddWc g/edit?hl=en_GB&authkey=CN_oqbYK& pli=1https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1f1s 1drjo8qMJ- vWR3BQgsfRbH2DO0E43Xb01eRddWc g/edit?hl=en_GB&authkey=CN_oqbYK& pli=1