1. Dr. Jim Gilkeson, CFA CFA Society of Orlando February 27, 2014

2.  2005: Is the Sky Falling?  2007: What a Difference a Year Makes  2008: Where Do We Go From Here?  2009: Reading the Tea Leaves  2010: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly  2012: Have We Hit Bottom?  2013: (Very) Cautious Optimism  2014: Will Slow & Steady Win the Race? 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA2

3.  Price  Volume (Sales)  Delinquency/Foreclosure  Financing  Supply  Demand  Scorecard 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA3

4. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA4

5. New homesExisting homes 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA5

6. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA6

7. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA7

8. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA8 MSA1-year5-year West Palm Beach12.95%-12.18% Miami12.59%-17.24% Punta Gorda12.08%-13.70% Ft Myers11.55%-5.84% Sarasota10.88%-11.05% Orlando10.61%-25.05% Ft Lauderdale10.43%-12.16% Port St. Lucie9.04%-17.21% Tampa/St. Pete8.41%-17.48% Naples8.34%-14.31% Palm Bay6.60%-20.99% Daytona6.26%-24.08% Jacksonville5.98%-21.69% Lakeland5.57%-30.15% Ft Walton4.65%-14.63% Pensacola4.22%-12.85% Tallahassee3.73%-20.79% Ocala3.64%-31.86% Gainesville1.92%-24.40%

9. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA9

10. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA10

11. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA11

12. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA12

13. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA13

14. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA14

15. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA15 Serious90+ DaysForeclosure Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ24.47%8.46%16.01% Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ17.81%5.82%11.99% Kingston, NY17.05%5.26%11.79% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL15.80%4.18%11.62% Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY15.67%4.95%10.72% Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL14.80%3.94%10.86% Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL14.40%3.98%10.43% Glens Falls, NY14.24%4.90%9.34% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL14.04%4.30%9.74% Orlando-Kissimmee, FL13.92%3.97%9.95% Pine Bluff, AR13.81%5.67%8.13% Las Vegas-Paradise, NV13.68%5.74%7.94% Mobile, AL13.42%6.00%7.43% Memphis, TN-MS-AR13.40%6.46%6.94% Jacksonville, FL13.16%4.57%8.59% Port St. Lucie, FL13.15%3.49%9.65% Palm Coast, FL12.95%3.48%9.47% Ocala, FL12.93%3.51%9.42% Trenton-Ewing, NJ12.93%4.19%8.74% Punta Gorda, FL12.38%3.60%8.78%

16. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA16

17. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA17 Net Home Mortgage Lending 200720082009201020112013* Depository Inst.171.3-151.2-200.1-99.1-76.3-89.7 GSE-9.78.8-11.3-117.3-103.269.8 Agency/GSE Pools622.6492.2402.5175.8148.095.0 ABS Issuers34.6-310.9-319.7-239.7-192.9-142.5 Finance Co + REITS-88.9-143.7-69.5-54.5-20.5-10.4 Other-15.6-5.5-2.3-7.630.96.8 Total714.3-110.3-200.4-342.4-214.0-71.0

18. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA18

19. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA19

20. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA20

21. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA21

22. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA22 Household Wealth Balance Sheet of Households & Nonprofit Organizations (in $trillions) 200520093Q2013Δ05-13 Assets71.773.190.926.8% Tangible28.423.727.0-4.9% Household Real Estate22.116.919.0-14.0% Financial43.349.463.947.6% Deposits6.28.19.350.0% Credit Market3.45.65.561.8% Corporate Equities8.07.512.151.3% Mutual Fund Shares3.84.16.263.2% Businesses Owned8.66.38.82.3% Pension Entitlements11.415.219.167.5% Liabilities Home Mortgages8.810.49.46.8% Consumer Credit2.32.63.030.4% Net Worth59.659.077.329.7%

23. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA23

24. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA24

25. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA25 National Housing Survey It is a good time to: BUYSELL Jan-1064%10% Jan-1168%10% Jan-1271%11% Jan-1369%23% Jan-1465%38%

26. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA26 National Housing Survey Personal financial situation is getting: BETTERWORSE Jan-1044%17% Jan-1144%12% Jan-1244%14% Jan-1343%19% Jan-1444%14%

27. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA27 National Housing Survey The economy is on the: RIGHT trackWRONG track Jan-1031%62% Jan-1134%57% Jan-1230%61% Jan-1339%53% Jan-1439%54%

28. 2/27/2014 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA28 Scorecard LevelTrend Pricesat/past peak levels-- Salesat peak levels in Orlando++ Financinglow rates+? "all cash" high-- lower FHA++ Foreclosuresstill high-+ Buildersstarts-+ views++ Demandconsumer confidence-+ affordability+- household wealth++