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Global Reactive Gases Martin Schultz IEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Reactive Gases Martin Schultz IEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Reactive Gases Martin Schultz IEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

2 MACC G-RG (13 partners) combines heritage from GEMS (12 partners) and PROMOTE (5 partners) PROMOTE heritage: level 2 satellite data products (GOME, GOME-2, Sciamachy, OMI) decentralized data assimilation for stratospheric (and total column) ozone (SACADA, BASCOE, TM3DAM) GEMS heritage: quasi-operational monitoring of tropospheric and stratospheric composition with IFS-MOZART and coupling achieved for IFS- TM5 and IFS-MOCAGE reanalysis 2003-2008 support of scientific field campaigns a lot of validation activities Introduction Slide 2

3 MACC G-RG comprises 4 work packages: WP 1: Satellite based monitoring of stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns WP 2: Consolidation and improvement of integrated global stratospheric ozone service WP 3: Consolidation and improvement of integrated service for global tropospheric reactive gases WP 4: Development of fully integrated chemistry transport in the ECMWF IFS Introduction Slide 3

4 WP 1 objective: Continue existing decentralized services from PROMOTE that deliver value-added satellite data products related to stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns (ozone, NO 2, HCHO, CO, SO 2 ) to end users WP1 Status Slide 4

5 Task G-RG_1.1: Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2 Task G-RG_1.2: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var Task G-RG_1.3: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var Task G-RG_1.4: Total ozone record, monitoring and forecast service Assimilation and forecasts of global stratospheric ozone Task G-RG_1.5: Validation of WP G-RG 1 trace gas services WP1 Status Slide 5

6 Main results of first reporting period Routine provision of satellite based data for European instruments: GOME-2, OMI and SCIAMACHY Quasi-operational application of independent assimilation systems: BASCOE, SACADA, TM3DAM for stratospheric ozone chemistry Initial validation of stratospheric (assimilation) services WP1 Status Slide 6

7 Provision of satellite based data (level-2) Most level-2 data on stratospheric ozone, BrO, tropospheric and total NO 2, CH 2 O and SO 2 is now available in NRT via MACC and/or dedicated access points Improvements of the trace gas retrieval w.r.t. speed, temperature data, new (standard) absorption spectra Reprocessing for GOME(1995-2003) and SCIA(2002- 2010) Task GRG 1.1 WP1 Status Slide 7

8 Stratospheric ozone services SACADA assimilation of SCIA nadir ozone observations since March 2010. BASCOE assimilation of MLS AURA data since December 2009. Multi-instrumental 30 year reanalysis based on TOMS, GOME, SBUV, SCIA, OMI and GOME-2 data. SCIA ozone forecasts are now corrected for instrumental calibration issues, which is especially important for UV products. Tasks GRG 1.2--1.4 WP1 Status Slide 8

9 Assimilated total ozone record for the period 1978 – 2008 based on satellite observations of TOMS, SBUV, GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI TM3DAM R. J. van der A, M. A. F. Allaart, and H. J. Eskes (2010): Multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 11401-11448. WP1 Status Slide 9

10 BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM: Intercomparison and comparison to independent data (focus on 2003 episode) BASCOE and SACADA more similar than TM3DAM. Results agree well in regions with good daily data coverage. Best correlation with independent data for the middle and high northern latitudes. Worst during ozone hole conditions. Most systematic deviations occur in data void regions. CTMs are capable to reproduce the Antarctic ozone hole. Though, timing and intensity differs from observations. Task GRG 1.5 WP1 Status Slide 10

11 D 1.1 Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2 M4 onwards D 1.2 Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var M4 onwards Since March 2010 D 1.3 Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var M4 onwards Since Dec 2009 D 1.4 Total ozone record, monitoring and forecasting service M4 onwards (TM3DAM) continued D 1.5 Validation report on stratospheric ozone services M18 In preparation D 1.7 Unified web interface for integrated MACC and former PROMOTE services M15 Deliverable added during first MACC assembly. Integration of stratospheric assimilation services achieved (see Task 2.3), integration of level 2 satellite products and tropospheric services TBD. WP2 Status Slide 11 WP1 Deliverable Status o

12 WP 2 objective: Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for stratospheric ozone developed in the GEMS project with products comprising of ozone, N 2 O, CH 4, BrO x, ClO x and others based on user-consultation, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies WP2 Status Slide 12

13 Task G-RG_2.1: Preparation of datasets for stratospheric model validation Task G-RG_2.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service Task G-RG_2.3: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation Task G-RG_2.4: Improvement integrated global stratospheric chemistry model Task G-RG_2.5: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS stratospheric ozone service (case studies) Task G-RG_2.6: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global stratospheric chemistry model Task G-RG_2.8: Validation of initial CT-IFS results WP2 Status Slide 13

14 Acquiring and maintenance of necessary datasets NRT groundbased and satellite observations NRT and historic model output Creation of the Stratospheric Ozone Webpage: http://macc.aeronomie.be http://macc.aeronomie.be Centralized stratospheric ozone products: MACC, BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM shown side-by- side, allowing quick comparison Initial NRT evaluation of stratospheric services Extensive improvement in automated evaluation software allowing for quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation WP2 Status Slide 14 Major accomplishments in WP2

15 http://macc.aeronomie.be/

16 Evaluation with statistical plots in observation space shows: IFS-MOZART has not been able to simulate/forecast polar O 3 depletion Elsewhere: Both BASCOE CTM and IFS-MOZART overestimate (+20%) in the lower stratosphere and underestimate (-20%) in the upper stratosphere Monitoring and reanalysis of total O 3 columns: very successful... but vertical distribution of the analyses is wrong (bias ~ 20%) in South Pole vortex where model is too biased when no profile is assimilated… WP2 Status Slide 16 Major accomplishments in WP2

17 ez2m MOZART 3.1, ff0f wetdep bug fix, f3yj Analysis Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART Monthly mean vertical profiles at Neumayer station, Antarctica WP2 Status Slide 17

18 Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART Simulation results with MOZART 3.5.02 showing ozone depletion down to ~140 DU in September 2003 (old version had a minimum of ~220 DU) Offline results with NCAR settings very similar to MACC settings; integration into MACC-IFS ongoing WP2 Status Slide 18

19 D 2.1 Inventory of stratospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode M6, M24 D 2.2 Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service M6 onwards Basic system continued from GEMS and side- by-side comparisons with SACADA and BASCOE (from WP1) D 2.3 Service product catalogue and web documentation of stratospheric ozone evaluation M12, M24http://macc.aeronomie.be D 2.4 Updated stratospheric chemistry model M12 (Delay 6 M) Albeit the reason for the IFS-MOZART deficiency to simulate Antarctic ozone depletion are still unclear, a new model version (MOZART 3.5.02) which was received from NCAR in September 2010 shows much improved simulation results. The new model is currently integrated in the MACC-IFS system. D 2.5 Stratospheric case study model results and evaluation results M18 In preparation o WP2 Status Slide 19 WP2 Deliverable Status

20 WP 3 objective: Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for tropospheric ozone, ozone precursors (NO x, CO, HCHO, SO 2, selected NMVOC and others) and oxidizing capacity developed in the GEMS project, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies WP3 Status Slide 20

21 Task G-RG_3.1: Prepare datasets for tropospheric model validation Task G-RG_3.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated tropospheric trace gas service Task G-RG_3.3: Improve integrated global tropospheric chemistry model Task G-RG_3.4: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation Task G-RG_3.5: Adapt G-RG model to use new vegetation fire emission data and parameterisations from D-FIRE Task G-RG_3.6: Adapt G-RG model to use new anthropogenic and natural emission data and parameterisations from D-EMIS Task G-RG_3.7: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS tropospheric trace gas service (case studies) Task G-RG_3.8: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global tropospheric chemistry model Task G-RG_3.9: Negotiation of an SLA with a key user for tropospheric trace gas service post-MACC WP3 Status Slide 21

22 Main achievements: 4 NRT streams: IFS-MOZART with assimilation of CO and ozone IFS-TM5 with assimilation of CO and ozone IFS-MOZART without assimilation IFS with tagged CO-like tracers Preparation of the MACC re-analysis with IFS-MOZART Code and emission update & resolution increase Optimisation of AN suite with coupled system Tracer forecasts, plume modelling and analysis Eyjafjalla eruption in April 2010 Russian fires in July 2010 Further development of validation metrics and web services WP3 Status Slide 22

23 1-2 slides with NRT stream results (could also be tied in with Russian fires…)

24 For O3, Fbov shows an improvement over f026, however the O3 anomaly from 1-14 August still underestimated. Fbov underestimates the CO concentration throughout the atmosphere and both IFS runs fail to capture the increase in CO near 5000m due to the urban emissions and forest fires in southern europe. WP3 Status Slide 24 OzoneCO GEMS versus MACC reanalysis GEMS MACC

25 Zonal CO Flux = U * MMR_CO * ρ WP3 Status Slide 25 MACC reanalysis CO – long-range transport over Atlantic (30W)

26 GEMS&MACC developments allowed for quick implementation of tracer forecast within 24 h after eruption using different injection height assumptions Good agreement in shape with forecast from VAAC - Metoffice and others Large uncertainty in emission source strength and injection height Ongoing experiments with data assimilation of SO2 Ongoing inter-comparison of plume forecast within ENSEMBLE framework (Dispersion models) Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling WP3 Status Slide 26

27 WP3 Status Slide 27 Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling

28 Iceland - Eyjafjallajokull Banks Islands - Gaua Congo - Nyamuragira WP3 Status Slide 28 The potential use of SO 2 column data to assimilate volcanic plumes MACC models currently don‘t account for volcanic emissions in NRT

29 Time average WP3 Status Slide 29 Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010: Assimilation of IASI CO Agreement between IASI and MOPITT is good; IASI slightly higher. Mean of IASI data used in the assimilation underestimates, because high values get first-guess and varqc rejected

30 No CO assimilation for current period RETRO/REAS emissions GFEDv2 climatology TM5-semi-oper Assimilation of MOPITT CO MACC emissions GFASv0 TM5-GFASv0MOPITT-V4 Model is drawn towards observations Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010 WP3 Status Slide 30 CO column

31 No NO2 assimilation RETRO/REAS emissions GFEDv2 climatology TM5-semi-oper Assimilation of OMI NO2 MACC emissions, GFASv0 TM5-GFASv0OMI 1. Model is drawn towards observations 2. Artificial spots of wildfires are suppressed 1 2 WP3 Status Slide 31 Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010 NO 2 column

32 WP3 Status Slide 32

33 IFS-TM5 model Assim uses IASI CO columns GFAS doesn‘t capture burning events or emission magnitude leading to „observed“ CO enhancement.

34 MACC pages at ECMWF SCIAMACHY val. at IUP BC service at Jülich MOZAIC/IAGOS val. at Toulouse Development of tropospheric GRG services

35 GEMS-RAQ model: MM5/CAMx Climatic Boundaries vs. MOZART-GRG f026 boundaries Comparison with MOZAIC Use of global boundary conditions for regional AQ modeling WP3 Status Slide 35

36 D 3.1 Inventory of tropospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode M6 (+M24) D 3.2 Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated tropospheric reactive trace gas service M6 onwards D 3.3 Improved tropospheric chemistry model based on GEMS validation results M6 D 3.4 Service product catalogue and web documentation of tropospheric reactive trace gases evaluation M12 (+M24) D 3.5 Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with vegetation fire emissions from D-FIRE M12 D 3.6 Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with anthropogenic and natural emissions from D-EMIS M18 Delay 3M Definition of upgrades in D-FIRE products Needed to fix stratospheric ozone issue D 3.7 Tropospheric reactive gases case study model results and evaluation results M18 In preparation WP3 Status Slide 36 WP3 Deliverable Status o

37 WP 4 objective: Begin the development of a fully coupled chemistry transport model based on the ECMWF integrated forecasting system in order to eliminate inconsistencies arising from the coupled set-up in GEMS WP4 Status Slide 37

38 Task G-RG_4.1: Design study for the integrated CT-IFS Task G-RG_4.2: Analysis of IFS transport parameterisations for use with reactive gases Task G-RG_4.3: Implementation of simplified linear chemistry schemes for CO and its adjoint code Task G-RG_4.4: Preparation and implementation of chemistry modules Task G-RG_4.5: Preparation and implementation of emission modules Task G-RG_4.6: Preparation and implementation of deposition modules Task G-RG_4.7: Testing and optimizing of the integrated CT-IFS WP4 Status Slide 38

39 Expanded IFS-code to run with 100+ tracers Scripts to run C-IFS and to archive results (not in mars yet) Global mass, source and sink diagnostic Global tracer mass fixer (same relative change in MMR at all grid points to ensure conservation) Implementation of TM5 chemistry package for troposphere (provided by KNMI) Cariolle-scheme for stratospheric ozone Integration of wet-deposition and lightning modules Successful completion of first one-year run with good results WP4 Status Slide 39 C-IFS Development Status

40 Area-averaged 222 Rn profiles at 12 UTC… … and at 24 UTC. C-IFS TM5 222 Rn simulation with C-IFS 900 hPa WP4 Status Slide 40

41 Obs TM5 C-IFS WP4 Status Slide 41 Surface ozone simulation with C-IFS Differences to be expected, because of different wet deposition/dry deposition schemes

42 Species emitted at surface are increased by non-conservation of semi-lagrange advection Ozone (and other stratospheric species) tend to be decreased WP4 Status Slide 42 IFS Tracer Transport

43 NO lightning emissions Three different parameterisations for flash rate density using cloud height (Price and Rind, 1993), convective precipitation (Meijer et al, 2001) or updraft velocity & ice cloud height (P. Lopez) implemented Wet deposition Simple parameterisation based on precipitation fluxes and clouds Re-evaporation and in-cloud scavenging in convection routine Dry deposition Constant surface flux in vertical diffusion More explicit treatment Photolysis rates Look up-table with corrections for cloud optical depth Use (extended) SW radiation scheme C-IFS physical chemistry parameterisations WP4 Status Slide 43

44 Price and Rind, 1993 Conv. Cloud height Meijer 2001 (TM5) Conv. Precip. Lopez p.c. Updraft & Ice Cloud height Observations LIS OTD WP4 Status Slide 44 Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations

45 Lopez p.c. Updraft & Ice Cloud height Observations LIS OTD WP4 Status Slide 45 Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations Grewe et al., 2001 Updraft & Conv. Cloud height ECHAM5-MOZ

46 Implement MOZART and MOCAGE chemistry modules Consolidate input/output data handling for C-IFS Continue work on mass diagnostics and simple mass fixers Family advection to reduce gradients Test different interpolation options Improve wet-deposition scheme and lightning Implement and test linear CO scheme Prepare C-IFS for data assimilation WP4 Status Slide 46 C-IFS development plans for P2

47 D 4.1 Planning document on design outline and interface standards of CT-IFS M4 D 4.2IFS transport study resultsM12 (Delay 6 M) Acute work on Eyjafjalla eruption/plume modeling Testing more extensive due to use of more realistic tracers (TM5 chemistry) D 4.3 Simplified linear chemistry scheme for CO and adjoint code integrated M16 Code delivered from CERFACS, but not yet implemented D 4.4Chemistry module integratedM16 TM5 module is integrated and tested D 4.5Emission module integratedM20 C-IFS interfaced with inventories and GFAS data o WP4 Status Slide 47 WP4 Deliverable Status o ( )

48 Outstanding issues: Harmonisation („one-stop access“) of tropospheric GRG products Underestimation of CO got worse in MACC  D-EMIS, D-FIRE Testing and use of additional/new satellite observations Some elements of validation work have not functioned very efficiently  new VAL sub project in MACC-2 Further development of C-IFS remains challenging (but also exciting) Outstanding Issues Slide 48

49 Additional slides

50 Joint work CNRM-BIRA on strat. chemistry BIRA wanted to upgrade PSC chemistry representation in BASCOE. In the process, an error was found in MOCAGE PSC routine (from the REPROBUS original scheme), impacting specially HNO 3 in the polar vortex : sedimentation and thus removal was previously much underestimated. HNO 3, zonal monthly mean 09/2001 old new ppbv new

51 GAW site list for NRT validation (CO and O3) StationNRT intervallatlonalt 1Hohenpeissenberg1 day47.811.02985 2Jungfraujoch1 day (12h)46.557.993580 3Monte Cimone1 month44.1810.702165 4Moussala1 month42.225.402925 5Ryori1 month39.03141.82260.00 6Waliguan1 week36.28100.903842 7Santa Cruz (Tenerife)1 day28.5-16.3050 8Izana (Tenerife)1 day28.3-16.502367 9Yonagunijima1 month24.47123.0230.00 10Minamitorishima1 month24.29153.988.00 11Assekrem/Tamanraset1 month23.175.422728 12Cape Point1 month-34.3518.48230 13Ushuaia1 month-54.85-68.3218.00 14Neumayer1 month-70.65-8.2542 New sites since GEMS Submission via FTP Submission via Email Currently no data transfer Offline validation performed for following runs: f93i: 09/2009 – 07/2010 f1kd: 10/2008 – 08/2009 f9nd: 11/2009 – 07/2010 fdrl: 05/2010 – 07/2010 GAW NRT data delivery WP3 Status Slide 51

52 Comparison of F9nd (IFS TM5) and F93i (IFS MOZ) for Antarctica (Neumayer): SH SummerSH Winter f9nd does capture the level of O 3, however, in the winter time the correlation decreases. strong underestimation of surface O 3 for Neumayer in winter and summer! NRT validation with GAW data

53 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Anthropogenic CO emission ratio MACC/GEMS

54

55 Emission and deposition preprocessor SUMO Reggrid original emission datasets to working domain and convert to a reduced set of activity sector (optionally apply month/season/day temporal profiles) Global or regional datasets accepted 1 file per specie and per activity sector (NetCDF format) at domain resolution Aggregate emission to model species (optionally apply hourly profile) and calculate deposition velocities Meteorological fields from ECMWF or Météo-France for deposition velocities Wesely Ganzeveld-modified parameterization DV and emissions at domain resolution in 1 or 2 separate files (NetCDF format) !!! Output fields are in lat-lon coordinates !!! Prep-EmisSUMO

56 januaryjuly SUMO IFS-CTM (TM5) O3 deposition velocities in cm.s -1 (monthly means)


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