1. Enrollment Projections 2008 – 2018 Faculty Senate Meeting February 19, 2008 Dr. Terrence Curran Associate Provost for Enrollment Management Faculty Senate Meeting February 19, 2008 Dr. Terrence Curran Associate Provost for Enrollment Management

2. Enrollment Management 1.Increase Student Success Retention Rates Graduation rates 2.Increase Student Access Affordability Pipeline of Quality Ready Students Partnerships Outreach Education Scholarships and Financial Aid 3.Expand Market Share Out -of-State Transfer Students Veterans Male Students Underrepresented Populations Graduate Students Non-Traditional Students Strategic Academic Disciplines 1.Increase Student Success Retention Rates Graduation rates 2.Increase Student Access Affordability Pipeline of Quality Ready Students Partnerships Outreach Education Scholarships and Financial Aid 3.Expand Market Share Out -of-State Transfer Students Veterans Male Students Underrepresented Populations Graduate Students Non-Traditional Students Strategic Academic Disciplines

3. 1.Clear Enrollment Goals 2.Defined Capacity. 3.Establish Processes that Enable Student Success. 4.Optimum Enrollment 5.Effective Academic Programs 6. Tuition and Revenue 7.Continuity and Consistency in Institutional Planning 8.Increased Organizational Efficiency 9.Improve Service Levels 10.Student and Faculty Satisfaction 1.Clear Enrollment Goals 2.Defined Capacity. 3.Establish Processes that Enable Student Success. 4.Optimum Enrollment 5.Effective Academic Programs 6. Tuition and Revenue 7.Continuity and Consistency in Institutional Planning 8.Increased Organizational Efficiency 9.Improve Service Levels 10.Student and Faculty Satisfaction Strategic Enrollment Plan Results In…..

4. UNCW Enrollment Assumptions 1. Increase quality of Freshman class. 2. Narrow “quality gap” between freshman and transfers. 3. Increase diversity. 4. Maintain commitment to 8 county service region. 5. Increase education enrollment and teacher production. 6. Increase nursing graduates. 7. Sustain enrollments in premier academic programs. 8. Increase enrollments in emerging academic disciplines. 9. Achieve freshman to sophomore retention to 90% by 2012. 10. Improve 4 year graduation rate to 50% by 2012. 11. Improve 6 year graduation rate to 70% by 2012. 12. Improve 6 year graduation rate to 75% by 2017. 13. UNCW will address UNC Tomorrow. 1. Increase quality of Freshman class. 2. Narrow “quality gap” between freshman and transfers. 3. Increase diversity. 4. Maintain commitment to 8 county service region. 5. Increase education enrollment and teacher production. 6. Increase nursing graduates. 7. Sustain enrollments in premier academic programs. 8. Increase enrollments in emerging academic disciplines. 9. Achieve freshman to sophomore retention to 90% by 2012. 10. Improve 4 year graduation rate to 50% by 2012. 11. Improve 6 year graduation rate to 70% by 2012. 12. Improve 6 year graduation rate to 75% by 2017. 13. UNCW will address UNC Tomorrow.

5. UNC Tomorrow Increasing Access to Higher Education The UNC Tomorrow Commission found that “UNC should increase access to higher education for all North Carolinians, particularly for underserved regions, underrepresented populations, and non-traditional students.” (Sec. 4.2) Campuses are asked to review existing academic programs, student support systems, distance education, online programs, potential flexible program offerings, and student recruitment efforts, and identify ways in which they will institutionalize: Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) in underserved regions of the state Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) for non-traditional students and life-long learners, including encouraging the completion of baccalaureate degrees Strengthening and streamlining articulation agreements and collaborative programs, including academic advising programs, with Community Colleges Increasing Access to Higher Education The UNC Tomorrow Commission found that “UNC should increase access to higher education for all North Carolinians, particularly for underserved regions, underrepresented populations, and non-traditional students.” (Sec. 4.2) Campuses are asked to review existing academic programs, student support systems, distance education, online programs, potential flexible program offerings, and student recruitment efforts, and identify ways in which they will institutionalize: Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) in underserved regions of the state Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) for non-traditional students and life-long learners, including encouraging the completion of baccalaureate degrees Strengthening and streamlining articulation agreements and collaborative programs, including academic advising programs, with Community Colleges

6. Increasing the educational attainment of underrepresented populations, especially African-American males, Hispanics, and American Indians, and increasing student diversity on their campuses Helping to ensure that all students are better prepared to enter and succeed academically in college, including increasing retention and graduation rates and strengthening programs such as Early College and Summer Bridge Increasing access through the use of distance education and online degree, certificate, and licensure programs. Other initiatives identified by the campus that respond to this Section of the UNC Tomorrow Commission report Serving as a model for accommodating the needs of persons with disabilities. In developing plans to expand access, diversity, and opportunities for student success, campuses are asked to consider the related suggested strategies identified by the UNC Tomorrow Commission. Ten-Year Enrollment Plans: Campuses are asked to factor anticipated enrollment increases based on the plans developing under this section into their Ten-Year Enrollment Plans (preliminary information on Ten-Year Enrollment Plans due February 29, 2008; final plans due May 1, 2008)

7. The University of North Carolina General Administration 6 NC Public High School Graduates UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/10-2-07

8. The University of North Carolina General Administration 7 Relation of the Models (Total Projected Demand to 2017) UNC-GA Academic Planning/ARMwmd/2-16-07

9. The University of North Carolina General Administration 8 Projection of Enrollment Demand for UNC: Three-Model Average

10. The University of North Carolina General Administration 9 University of North Carolina System Enrollment and Changing Diversity for the State UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/2-21-07 Note: Freshmen enrollment figures represent students from the state. High school graduates and projected graduates are for public schools only.

11. The University of North Carolina General Administration 10 Projected UNC Enrollment Demand for Fall 2017 Average of Projection Models UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/3-14-07 UNC Total 281,295

12. UNCW Challenges 1.UNCW has significant space and facility shortages. 2.64% of CAS enrollment is found in 10 majors. 3.There is an expanding number of students who continue to find themselves cornered in the “pre-major” status and no institutional commitment to address their needs. 4.School of Nursing growth is inhibited by availability of appropriate faculty to meet accreditation standards. 5.School of Education growth is inhibited by the availability of interested and qualified students. 6.Cameron School of Business is within capacity. 7.UNCW’s current budget resource is insufficient to meet adequate staffing levels, program requirements, market salary competitiveness, and aspirations at our current enrollment level. 1.UNCW has significant space and facility shortages. 2.64% of CAS enrollment is found in 10 majors. 3.There is an expanding number of students who continue to find themselves cornered in the “pre-major” status and no institutional commitment to address their needs. 4.School of Nursing growth is inhibited by availability of appropriate faculty to meet accreditation standards. 5.School of Education growth is inhibited by the availability of interested and qualified students. 6.Cameron School of Business is within capacity. 7.UNCW’s current budget resource is insufficient to meet adequate staffing levels, program requirements, market salary competitiveness, and aspirations at our current enrollment level.

13. UNCW Challenges 8.UNCW’s Distance Education/Extension requires a definition of vision, a commitment of support by the Dean and Faculty of each College/Professional School and an institutionally supported funding model. 9.Prior UNCW enrollment models were unrealistic in estimating the proportion of graduate enrollment growth. 10.UNCW’s current level of scholarships inhibits market competitiveness with selectivity aspirations. 11.UNCW’s lack of funds for graduate assistantships inhibits graduate growth and quality. 12.UNCW needs to establish brand recognition and consistency in institutional messages. 13.UNCW must address inconsistencies in academic advising models and improve institutional commitment at each level of the institution. 14.UNCW must improve communication/awareness of academic policy development and implementation. 8.UNCW’s Distance Education/Extension requires a definition of vision, a commitment of support by the Dean and Faculty of each College/Professional School and an institutionally supported funding model. 9.Prior UNCW enrollment models were unrealistic in estimating the proportion of graduate enrollment growth. 10.UNCW’s current level of scholarships inhibits market competitiveness with selectivity aspirations. 11.UNCW’s lack of funds for graduate assistantships inhibits graduate growth and quality. 12.UNCW needs to establish brand recognition and consistency in institutional messages. 13.UNCW must address inconsistencies in academic advising models and improve institutional commitment at each level of the institution. 14.UNCW must improve communication/awareness of academic policy development and implementation.

14. Fall 2007 Statistics New Freshman1920 New Transfers 1294 Total Undergraduate 11026 New Masters429 New Doctorate19 Total Graduate 1154 Extension UG.273 Extension GRAD.67 Total Headcount12180 85% Fresh. to Soph. retention rate 44% four-year graduation rate 65% six-year graduation rate New Freshman1920 New Transfers 1294 Total Undergraduate 11026 New Masters429 New Doctorate19 Total Graduate 1154 Extension UG.273 Extension GRAD.67 Total Headcount12180 85% Fresh. to Soph. retention rate 44% four-year graduation rate 65% six-year graduation rate

15. BASE SCENARIO 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016 First-time Freshmen 1950 Undergrad Transfers 1320132513301335134013451350135513601365 Undergraduate Total 10875110611119711298113741143311479115171154811575 Graduate Total 1210127013301390145015101570163016901750 Grand Total Resident Credit 12085123311252712688128241294313049131471323813325 Extension (UG) 200 Extension (Master's) 125 Extension Only Total 325 Grand Total Resident Credit + Extension 12410126561285213013131491326813374134721356313650 % Growth Overall 2.5%2.0%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.0%.8%.75%.70%.65%

16. BASE SCENARIO 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017 First-time Freshmen 1960197519902005202520452065209021152140 Undergrad Transfers 1350138014101440148515301575163516951755 Undergraduate Total 10908110181126911501116641189412056121691230512463 Graduate Total 1110117712561307134914011474154116051696 Grand Total Resident Credit 12018121951252512808130131329513530137101391014159 Extension (UG) 373474487497504772784105810721089 Extension (Master's) 80127146165184204226247271297 Extension Only Total 4536016336626889761010130513431386 Grand Total Resident Credit + Extension 12471127961315813470137011427114540150151525315545 % Growth Overall 2.0%3% 2% 4%2%3%2%

17. 2007 vs. 2017 Undergraduate Resident Credit Enrollment by College/School