2. Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning Emile F Pelletier Strategic Planning Operational Research Team Defence Research and Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis 1-09-2010

3. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Outline References Introduction the SC 2 RAT Tool –Inputs –Method –Outputs –Way Ahead Questions

4. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP References Burton, R.M.H., Christopher, G.L., Chouinard, P., Kerzner, L.F., Maj Simonds, K., (2005). Procedures, processes and tools of capability-based planning: An outline for a Canadian approach. DRDC-CORA TR 2005-035, November, 2005. Christopher, G., Blakeney, D., Petryk, R., Taylor, B., Kerzner, L., Fong, V., …, Beard, A., (2009). Strategic capability roadmap version 1.0 analytic framework. DRDC-CORA TR 2009-013, December, 2009. TTCP JSA TP3 (2006). Guide to capability-based planning [Word document]. Retrieved from Public Scientific & Technical Information Online Web site. http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper- Final.doc. http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper- Final.doc

5. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction Capability Based Planning process depends on harnessing ‘soft’ SME inputs into numeric data to use to produce an investment plan.

6. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction (Burton, Christopher, Chouinard, Kerzner, & Simonds, 2005) Scenarios Planning > req’ts Management > affluences/deficiencies Integration > plan

7. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Planning Steps to Identify Capability Requirements Chief of Defense Staff Action Team Capability Assessment Matrix (CATCAM) Output: Prioritised list of Capability requirements, Capability goals (MoC) (Christopher et al., 2009)

8. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Management Map CF Force Structure to required Capabilities The Scenario Capability + Capacity Requirements Assessment / Outlook Tool (SC 2 RAT) A set of scenarios assessed with SC 2 RAT generates a list of Capability deficiencies. Concurrency analysis completes this list and allows production of a list of affluences. Consideration of capability deficiencies and development of possible alternatives

9. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Components of SC 2 RAT SC 2 RAT uses a mix of hard and soft elements Soft OR in SC 2 RAT: –SMEs provide objective input –Interpreting MoCs that come from planning –Judgment to choose Force Elements to conduct required capabilities and assessing quantities of each FE required Hard OR in SC 2 RAT: –Algorithms and various calculations

10. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Inputs Scenarios –Scenario Analysis (CATCAM) Capability requirements Prioritisation of Capabilities (CATCAM scores) Measures of Capability (MoCs) Capability Framework Force Structure

11. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Inputs Qualitative Quantitative Factual Conceptual Capability FrameworkScenarios Measures of Capability CATCAM Scores Force Structure Subject Matter Expert (SME) inputSME + OR Analyst Support input

12. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Method SMEs determine: –Force Elements (w/ qty.) to conduct Capabilities –Assessment across time-slices SC 2 RAT calculates: –Capability Outlook: a colour-coded depiction of the overall ‘health’ of capabilities over time –Capability Deficiencies –Force Packages: list quantities of FEs required

13. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Method Snapshot from SC 2 RAT, summer 2010 version

14. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Method Soft aspects of SC 2 RAT method –Group interpretation of MoCs: translate into quantifiable assessments which are quantities of FEs needed to conduct capabilities –Working with conceptual inputs: Capability Framework Scenarios CATCAM scores

15. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Outputs Capability Outlook to show results at a broad level Capability Deficiencies for consideration and development of Alternatives Force Packages for input into the Concurrency Tool to allow for identification of Capability affluences Snapshot from SC 2 RAT, summer 2010 version

16. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Outputs Qualitative Quantitative Factual Conceptual

17. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Outputs Qualitative Quantitative Factual Conceptual Capability Deficiencies Capability Outlook Force Packages Subject Matter Expert (SME) outputSME + OR Analyst Support output

18. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Outputs Qualitative Quantitative Factual Conceptual Capability Deficiencies Capability Outlook Force Packages Subject Matter Expert (SME) outputSME + OR Analyst Support output Capability FrameworkScenarios Measures of Capability CATCAM Scores Force Structure Subject Matter Expert (SME) inputSME + OR Analyst Support input

19. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The SC 2 RAT Tool Way Ahead Capturing discussions in SC 2 RAT (‘soft’) Allow the allocation algorithm to substitute different FEs for unavailable FEs (‘hard’)

20. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Questions

21. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Methods Assessing FEs to Capabilities –FE meets or exceeds the MoCs specifications of the capability –Input the quantity (integer only) in the cell –Multiple types of FEs can also be assessed against a capability. Primary / Secondary Assessments –FE’s main job? »If not, SECONDARY (if same or fewer # of units) »Not included in the total demand*. –At least one Primary for each FE * The Total Demand of units for a FE in a scenario/year is the sum of the Primary assessments

22. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Methods ‘Hard’ aspects of SC 2 RAT –Allocation of units as per assessments made »Automated algorithm uses up the serviceable qty of FEs proceding through the list of capabilities to which they’re assessed, by order of priority (as set out by CATCAM scores) –Scoring procedure »Aggregating final scores at the lowest Capability Tier level that are determined by allocation of FEs through the Capability Framework, permitting reporting at higher tier levels