1. Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada Training Pipeline Modelling Using the Production Management Tool 20 March 2009 Prepared by: Ms. Michelle Straver Presented by: Mr. Paul Bender Director General Military Personnel Research & Analysis

2. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Outline introduction case study –modelling process –sample results future work

3. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO What is the Production Management Tool (PMT)? simulation tool that can be used for: –viewing and analyzing the current and future state of a training pipeline –identifying existing or arising scheduling problems (i.e. bottlenecks, empty seats, etc.) conducting what if? testing by changing pipeline parameters (e.g. course capacities, number or timing of serials, streaming, intake, etc.)

4. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO What is the Production Management Tool (PMT)? three major components: –Arena model event-driven simulation model generic (can be used for any CF occupation) –database contains the information required by the simulation (basic scenario parameters, information on course flow, entry plans and courses, course serials, and personnel) after running, contains text file with output results includes extensive set of queries for analyzing results –Graphical User Interface (GUI) used for entering data, generating charts and reports

5. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Top-Level View of Arena Model

6. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO ANAV Test Case Step 1: Gather Information Step 2: Generate Credit Matrix Step 3: Clean Data Step 4: Set Up Scenario in GUI and Run Step 5: Analyze Data

7. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 1: Gather Information (with SME support) develop training pipeline –establish course flow from recruitment to graduation for each possible entry plan obtain current pipeline status –past, current, and planned course schedules –course history for each student –most data can be imported from the Military Individual Training & Education (MITE) database extract determine whether course failure results in re- course or transfer out of occupation determine overall attrition rate

8. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO ANAV Training Pipeline CFR DEO CEOTP UTPNCM COR (pilot) OT BOTP AMT Sea Surv BSERE BANC CP-140 N/C CC-130 Nav CH-124 TCO BOTP CP-140 ASO ROTP RMC SLT (if reqd) BOTP IAP COR (unrelated) ROTP CIV Civ Univ IAP

9. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 2: Generate Credit Matrix completing a course gives a specified number of credits (0 to 1) toward eligibility for other courses student is eligible for a course when he/she earns a total of 1.0 credits for that course alternatively, students can be streamed into one of a set of courses according to specified proportions

10. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 3: Clean Data MITE Extract contains several data tables –OP_COURSE_TBL general high-level details for each course –OP_CRSE_SESSN_TBL details for every course serial, e.g. start/end dates, min/max capacity –OP_TRAINING course/serial registration and attendance results for each student –POPULATION each students Service Number, name, rank, hire date, occupation, entry plan

11. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Data Cleaning Issues – Examples adjust serial capacity (OP_CRSE_SESSN_TBL) –change min capacity to 1 for courses that are shared with other occupations update course codes and serials (OP_TRAINING) –course will not be recognized if individual took it under earlier code validate/update entry plans (POPULATION) –often unknown or named differently in MITE Extract; OT/COR is never indicated –check each individuals course history to infer entry plan and update if required

12. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 4-1: Enter Scenario Information

13. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 4-2: Enter Course Information

14. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 4-3: Import or Enter Serial Data

15. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 4-4: Import or Enter Population Data

16. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 4-5: Run Scenario

17. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Step 5: Analyze Data many types of charts and reports can be produced easily by the user at the course, serial, or person level time period for analysis can be selected by user so that different time segments of the simulation can be compared the charts shown in the following slides represent a five year period beginning on the simulation start date (14 Feb 2008)

18. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Graduates by Fiscal Year

19. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Demand and Attendance Ratios Relative to Capacity

20. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Demand and Attendance for the BANC

21. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Person Gantt Chart

22. Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Future Work case study for multiple related occupations –e.g. ANAV and pilots probability-based recourse/transfer on fail add flexibility to attrition parameter improve handling of entry plans