1. Breaking Myths, Establishing Evidence Danny Dorling – Sheffield University Race and Religion Statistics from the Census: What can you make of them? Local Government Association, Smith Square, 8/12/2003

2. Some Context to Census How myths can begin: Letter to Clement Atlee, Prime Minister, signed by 11 Labour MPs 1948: An influx of coloured people domiciled here is likely to impair the harmony, strength and cohesion of our public and social life and to cause discord and unhappiness among all concerned

3. Allaying fears about numbers Margaret Thatcher 1978. Pre-election speech: People are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture… the British character has done so much for democracy, for law, and done so much throughout the world, that if there is any fear that it might be swamped, people are going to react and be rather hostile to those coming in. So if you want good race relations, youve got to allay peoples fears about numbers

4. Swamping half a century on David Blunkett, Secretary of State at the Home Office, 2002 (The Today Program, BBC Radio Four 24/04/02): "Whilst they're going through the process, the children will be educated on the site, which will be open. People will be able to come and go, but importantly not swamping the local school."

5. What Censuses Count Census (Britain) Minority – as defined At the time of each Census and used.. CountPopulationShare 1971Born in or both parents born in the New Commonwealth 2,287,80453,978,5984.24% 1981Born in the New Commonwealth or Pakistan 1,513,34553,555,5662.83% 1991Non-white ethnic minority group 3,011,30554,856,1665.49%

6. 1981 Census White Paper In addition, there is a need for authoritative and reliable information about the main ethnic minorities. In order to help in carrying out their responsibilities under the Race Relations Act, and in developing effective social policies, the Government and local authorities need to know how the family structure, housing, education, employment and unemployment of the ethnic minorities compare with the conditions in the population as a whole. Any study of community relations must start from a knowledge of the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the ethnic minorities and, in particular, from knowledge of changes in their geographical distribution. The census, which is comprehensive and confidential, would provide much of this basic information (Command Paper 7146, 1978, paragraph 24).

7. The 1991 Ethnicity Question

8. 2001 Ethnicity Question

9. 2001 religion question

10. What Nots 2001 Counted Census (Britain) Minority – as defined At the time of each Census and used.. CountPopulationShare 2001Not White British, White Other, White Irish nor White Scottish 4,602,73057,103,9298.06% 2001Not White, Other, nor Mixed 3,374,88757,103,9295.91% 2001Religion – not none, Christian, nor Jedi 2,983,55557,103,9295.22%

11. Censuses are only snapshots

12. Other Sources are needed

13. Dispersal in England

14. What Stereotypes are wrong? Whos married with children Whos qualified Who has a degree Who has no qualifications How are the geographies of ethnic groups changing and what are the geographies of religious groups identified in 2001?

15. Who with children is married?

16. Who lacks qualifications?

17. Who will have a degree?

18. Who will have no qualifications?

19. Finally some indexes Indexes can be more trouble than they are worth – are very crude summaries. Very slight changes to definitions, formulae, areas studied have huge effects. But, they will be constructed so is it possible to work out the least worse indexes to use? Three are used here, preferred in bold.

20. A 1991-2001 categorisation Our 8 simple categories Britain 1991England & Wales 2001Scotland 2001 AfricanBlack AfricanBlack or Black British - AfricanAfrican Bangladeshi CaribbeanBlack -CaribbeanBlack or Black British - CaribbeanCaribbean Chinese IndianAsian - IndianAsian or Asian British - IndianIndian PakistaniAsian - PakistaniAsian or Asian British - PakistaniPakistani Other Asian - Other Black - Other Other_Other All Mixed and Other Groups White White - Irish White - Other White - British Other White Other White British White - Irish White - Scottish

21. A simple Geography of Religion This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account.

22. Some Indices The table below shows three indices of dispersal by district for each group in England and Wales. The first (1) is the index of segregation, the proportion who would have to move district to be evenly spread; the second is the index of isolation (2), the chance of a person of a particular religion meeting another person of their religion, at random by district; the third (3) is an index of separation, the index of isolation adjusted for the national size of the religious group which can vary from 0% to 100%. ChristianBuddhistHinduJewishMuslimSikhOtherNoneNot say 1 4.8%29.8%56.2%62.1%54.2%62.5%19.5%10.2%4.7% 273%0.5%6.4%5.1%10.3%3.9%0.4%15.8%7.8% 33.9%0.2%5.4%4.6%7.6%3.3%0.1%1.2%0.1%

23. A simple Geography of Ethnicity This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account. The map is almost unchanged as compared to that which can be drawn for 1991 and in contrast to other maps of change

24. Indices at LA level (E&W) E&WAfricanB/deshiC/beanChineseIndianP/staniWhiteOther White+ Other 1991 Segregation 66%60%61%32%57%61%3%42%3% Isolation 4%6%5%1%8%4%94%4%96% Separation 3%6%4%0%7%4%13%2%11% 2001 Segregation 67%61%62%32%55%61%5%38%4% Isolation 7%10%5%1%9%6%93%5%95% Separation 6%9%4%0%7%5%16%3%14% change Segregation 1% 0%-2%0%1%-4%1% Isolation 3%4%0% 1%2%-2%1%-1% Separation 3% 0% 1% 4%1%3%

25. Indices at Ward Level E&WAfricanB/deshiC/beanChineseIndianP/staniWhiteOther White+ Other 1991 Segregation 71%74%68%42%64%74%4%48%3% Isolation 4%11%8%1%15%14%95%4%96% Separation 4%11%7%1%14% 21%3%20% 2001 Segregation 70%71%66%41%61%71%5%42%4% Isolation 8%14%7%1%15%17%93%6%95% Separation 7%13%6%1%14%16%25%3%23% change Segregation -1%-2% -1%-3% 1%-6%1% Isolation 4%3%-1%0% 3%-2%1%-1% Separation 3% -1%0% 3% 0%3%

26. White % and change 91-01

27. Conclusions We did not ask these questions for entirely altruistic reasons; context matters greatly. There are thousands of myths to be exposed and legends to be generated. Rather than swamping we see spreading slowly into a White swamp. However, there are very many different stories in different places.

28. White % and change 91-01