1. Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky. - Update by Jesse Mayes, P.E. Division of Multimodal Programs July 22, 2003

2. Air Quality Timelines New Emissions Model MOBILE6 - Now New 8-Hour Ozone Standard - 4/15/04 Conformity due - 4/15/05 SIP due - 4/15/07 New PM2.5 Standard - 12/15/04 Conformity? SIP due - 12/15/07

3. MOBILE6 Requirements MOBILE 6.2 VMT BY TIME OF DAY VMT BY YEAR OF VEHICLE FREEWAY/RAMP VMT DISTRIBUTION WEATHER VMT BY VEHICLE TYPE AVERAGE SPEEDS BY FUNCTIONAL CLASS OF ROAD

4. Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky.- Update VMT Ramp % Speed (Space Mean Speed) Truck % Vehicle Age/Type Distribution

5. VMT HPMS data Local mileage GPS’ed (TBC by 12/31/03) Local ADT based on collector ADT (see KTC report at http://www.ktc.uky.edu) Forecasts developed in-house based on trends

6. Ramp % Freeway Mainline/Ramp % Mainline %Ramp % MOBILE6 Default92.0%8.0% Kentucky Urban92.4%7.6% Kentucky Rural98.5%1.5% See KYTC Report

7. Speed Starting Point Data Collection State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural Areas) State of Speed Estimation for Areas with TDMs Conclusions

8. Starting Point 1997 HPMS Average Speeds by Functional Class. not accurate, obsolete HPMS Functional Class # Rural/UrbanDescription1997 HPMS Average Speeds (mph) 01RuralInterstate50.4 02RuralPrinciple Arterial47.4 06RuralMinor Arterial34.9 07Not RuralMajor Collector31.5 08RuralMinor Collector31.5 09RuralLocal31.5 11UrbanInterstate49.0 12UrbanFreeway50.5 14UrbanPrinciple Arterial28.0 16UrbanMinor Arterial20.6 17UrbanCollector21.1 19UrbanLocal21.1

9. Data Collection - Speeds Spot Counts Automatic Traffic Recorders (ATRs) Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

10. Data Collection Spot Counts

11. Data Collection ATRs

12. Data Collection ITS

13. State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural Areas) Survey of literature Proposed national research Speed estimation workshop Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)

14. Survey of Literature NCHRP Report 387 TMIP Travel Model Speed Estimation Highway Capacity Manual

15. Proposed National Research Submitted 2 proposals to NCHRP 8-36

16. Speed Estimation Workshop Workshop conducted by Dr. Rich Margiotta of Cambridge Systematics Included Kentucky Model User’s Group Recommended HERS methodology

17. Travel Demand Models (TDMs) (Urban Areas) Status quo Brainstorming sessions/changes

18. Travel Demand Models (TDMs) (Urban Areas)-Recommendations Use of improved BPR equations Use of more accurate free flow speeds Calibrate models for speed in addition to volume Develop standard modeling procedures for statewide usage

19. Speed - Conclusions With MPOs and Consultant Partners, Develop Consistent Methodology for TDMs For Other Areas, Develop HERS Solution Based on Kentucky Data Availability Provide to Air Quality Agency TDM Speeds where available and Rich M. HPMS/HERS results for other areas

20. Final MOBILE6 Speed Estimations

21. Review of Actions Rich Margiotta MUG workshop (8/14/02) TDM/speed workshop (12/6/02) DVMT/speed data submitted to DAQ for new 8- hour ozone standard (1/24/03) Randy Simon used HERS and “local” data to calculate speeds for AQ submission (5/03) Highway Speed Estimation for M6 by Kentucky - presented at AWMA (6/23/03) Poster at TRB Partnering Conf. (5/16/03) Speed study initiated with KTC (7/15/03)

22. Future Directions Develop standard modeling procedures for statewide usage Investigate other local traffic parameters such as VMT & Speed by time-of-day and vehicle type Explore the use of registration data/crash data

23. Conclusion It is important to establish a consistent speed methodology for the state. It is equally important look at other transportation related MOBILE6 inputs. Thank you for your attention. Questions/Comments? Email:Jesse.mayes@mail.state.ky.us