1. The Big Picture To assess the Global Carbon Budget we need information that is ‘Everywhere, All of the Time’ Many Complementary Methods exist, Each with specific, scale-dependent Pros and Cons, so the Overall Premise is Impossible for any stand alone method Multi-Faceted, Integrative C Flux program is Needed Statistics can be our ‘Friend’ and May Relieve us from Being ‘Everywhere’ To Address Phenology, Seasonaly Dynamics, Intermittency and Trends we still nee to measure ‘All the Time’. Dennis Baldocchi, University of California, Berkeley

2. Methods To Assess Terrestrial Carbon Budgets at Landscape to Continental Scales, and Across Multiple Time Scales GCM Inversion Modeling Remote Sensing/ MODIS Eddy Flux Measurements/ FLUXNET Forest/Biomass Inventories Biogeochemical/ Ecosystem Dynamics Modeling Physiological Measurements/ Manipulation Expts.

3. remote sensing of CO 2 Temporal scale Spatial scale [km] hour day week month year decade century local 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10 000 global forest inventory plot Countries EU plot/site tall tower obser- vatories Forest/soil inventories Eddy covariance towers Landsurface remote sensing From point to globe via integration with remote sensing (and gridded metorology) From: Markus Reichstein, MPI

4. FLUXNET: From Sea to Shining Sea 500+ Sites, circa 2009

5. How many Towers are needed to estimate mean NEE, GPP and assess Interannual Variability, at the Global Scale? Green Plants Abhor a Vacuum, Most Use C 3 Photosynthesis, so we May Not need to be Everywhere, All of the Time We Need about 75 towers to produce Robust and Invariant Statistics

6. Statistical Samping of Interannual variability of C fluxes with a Network Baldocchi et al., in prep

7. Flux-Derived Global GPP: 123 +/- 8 PgC/y Beer et al, Science, 2010

8. Upscale NEP, Globally, Explicitly 1.Compute GPP = f(T, ppt) 2.Compute R eco = f(GPP, Disturbance) 3.Compute NEP = GPP-R eco R eco = 101 + 0.7468 * GPP R eco, disturbed = 434.99 + 0.922 * GPP FLUXNET Synthesis Baldocchi, 2008, Aust J Botany

9. = -129 gC m -2 y -1  NEE = -17.5 PgC/y!! Implies too Large NEE (|-700 gC m -2 y -1 | Fluxes in Tropics Ignores C losses from Disturbance and Land Use Change

10. Disturbance GPP, PgC y -1 Reco NBP, PgC y -1 0%113.696.1-17 1%-101.05-13.1 2%-103.6-10.4 4%-109.7 +/1 0.17 -4.02 +/- 0.16 Carbon Balance if Randomly Disturb C pools

11. Remote Sensing of NPP: Up and down PAR, LED, Pyranometer, 4 band Net Radiometer Phenology, fpar, LAI, APAR, N, Vcmax

12. Hemispherical Camera Upward Looking Camera Web Camera

13. Phenology with Upward-Facing Digital Camera Ryu et al, in prep

14. ESPM 111 Ecosystem Ecology Falk, Ma and Baldocchi, unpublished

15. Ground Based, Time Series of Hyper-Spectral Reflectance Measurements, in Conjunction with Flux Measurements Can be Used to Design Future Satellites Ryu et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in review

16. Spectrally-Selective Vegetation Indices Track Seasonality of C Fluxes Well Ryu et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in review

17. Vegetation Indices can be Used to Predict GPP with Light Use Efficiency Models

18. UpScaling of FluxNetworks

19. Xiao et al 2010, Global Change Biology What We can Do: Is Precision Good Enough for Treaties?

20. Xiao et al 2010, Global Change Biology Map of Gross Primary Productivity Derived from Regression Tree Algorithms Derived from Flux Network, Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Data Youngryel Ryu and D. Baldocchi, unpublished

21. Xiao et al 2010, Global Change Biology

22. Net Ecosystem C Exchange Xiao et al. 2008, AgForMet spring summer autumn winter

23. Jingfeng Xiao and D Baldocchi area-averaged fluxes of NEE and GPP were -150 and 932 gC m -2 y -1 net and gross carbon fluxes equal -8.6 and 53.8 TgC y -1 Upscale GPP and NEE to the Biome Scale

24. Youngryel Ryu and D. Baldocchi, unpublished Coupled Energy Balance-Photosynthesis Sun/Shade Model driven by MODIS, Implemented with Cloud-Computing System

25. Youngryel Ryu and D. Baldocchi, unpublished Coupled Energy Balance-Photosynthesis Sun/Shade Model driven by MODIS

26. Conclusion Much Promise in Coupling Remote Sensing and Flux Network Information to produce State, Continental and Global Maps of Net and Gross Carbon Fluxes How Good is Good Enough? – Errors are still on the Order of +/- 8 PgC/y so we may not have the resolution to detect inter-annual variability and may need Decades to Detect Trends in this Noisy System – Perspective, Drawdown during Glacial-Inter-Glacial was 20 TgC/y of the Land-Ocean System