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DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, C. Huntingford, C. D.,

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Presentation on theme: "DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, C. Huntingford, C. D.,"— Presentation transcript:

1 DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, C. Huntingford, C. D., P. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Mueller, M. Reichstein, S. Running, S. I. Seneviratne, N. Viovy, F. I. Woodward, S. Zaehle, M. Zhao

2 Modelled Natural CO 2 Sinks Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

3 Global Annual Budget Regional Trends in Land C-Sinks (Trendy) Compare DGVM-based estimates with other evidence - Satellite derived data - Fluxtower data - Atmospheric Monitoring Stations Regional Trends in C-sinks and Annual Global Budget

4 GCP- Land trends: modelling protocol Contact: Stephen Sitch (s.sitch@leeds.ac.uk) & Pierre Friedlingstein (p.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk) http://dgvm.ceh.ac.uks.sitch@leeds.ac.ukp.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk Goal: To investigate the trends in NEE over the period 1980-2009 Participating models JULES, LPJ, LPJ-GUESS, O-CN, Orchidee, HyLand, SDGVM, NCAR-CLM4, GFDL/Princeton, VEGAS Model simulations The models were forced over the 1901-2009 period with changing CO 2, climate (CRU/NCEP) and land use: S1: CO2 only S2: CO2 and climate S3 (optional): CO2, climate and land use Trendy Protocol

5 Land Source trend positive NPP trend < positive RESP trend negative NPP trend < negative RESP trend negative NPP trend, positive RESP trend Land Sink trend positive NPP trend > positive RESP trend negative NPP trend > negative RESP trend positive NPP trend, negative RESP trend Trends in Land Processes

6 Land Sink trend positive NPP trend > positive RESP trend negative NPP trend > negative RESP trend positive NPP trend, negative RESP trend Land Source trend positive NPP trend < positive RESP trend negative NPP trend < negative RESP trend negative NPP trend, positive RESP trend Climatic Drivers of Trends in Land Processes

7 B. Mueller, ETH Zurich Satellite Evidence: Trends in Soil Moisture

8 Remarkable Similarity between NPP evolution from DGVMs

9 Global NPP explains most of the NEE variability

10 DGVM sink vs MODIS-NPP M Zhao

11 Alternative Upscaling Approaches Multidimensional flux patterns... Color: GPP... models to be cross-evaluated against. Reichstein remote sensing of CO 2 Temporal scale Spatial scale [km] hour day week month year decade century local 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10 000 global forest inventory plot CountriesEU plot/site tall tower obser- vatories Forest/soil inventories Eddy covariance towers Landsurface remote sensing

12 JJA Stippled areas > 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change http://www.ipcc.ch/ Future Precipitation Changes (Summer Droughts?)

13  Use set-up to produce global/regional annual C-budgets  Drought may be an important driver of the present-day trends in the land carbon cycle  Climate Models Project Summer Drought in Continental Regions  Drought may be an important driver of the future trends in the land carbon cycle  Critical to understand Ecosystem Response to Drought for future Earth System feedbacks Summary

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