1. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Sask., Dec. 11-12, 2000 1 International Negotiations Where are we now? Issues for Agriculture Dr. Wayne Lindwall Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre (SPARC) Swift Current, Saskatchewan

2. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Sask., Dec. 11-12, 2000 2 Globally Agriculture is a Major Source of GHG’s > 25% of the Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) > 50% of the Methane (CH 4 ) > 70% of the Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O)

3. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 3 Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Sector - 1996 ________________________________ Context/Certainty

4. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 4 Kyoto target: 563 Tg 671 748 Business-As-Usual Range 450 550 600 750 19901995200020052010 500 650 700 800 GHG Emissions (Tg of CO 2 equivalent ) 1990 Baseline: 599 Tg 703 140-185 Tg (20-25%) Greenhouse gas emissions in Canada and the projected gap by 2010 to meet the Kyoto commitment Gap increasing, implications for Ag sector If we have to reduce GHGs by 25%

5. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 5 Intent of the U.N. Climate Change Convention “to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system” Countries are to take measures to reduce emissions from sources and enhance removals by sinks.

6. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 6 Climate Change Definitions Sink - “Any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere” (eg. Photosynthesis, growing trees & crops) Source - “Any process or activity which adds a greenhouse gas to the atmosphere” (eg. fossil fuels, burn biomass, N 2 O, CH 4 )

7. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 7 Objective: Objective: Decision framework for inclusion of Ag. Soil Sinks at COP6 at the The Hague Decisions on additional sink activities …..should be based on sound science …..promote other social and environmental benefits (conservation, soil & water quality, biodiversity) …..should be consistent with principles of SLM and objectives of Climate Convent.

8. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 8 Promote Principle of Full Carbon/GHG Accounting Enhancement of sinks and reduction of sources (all greenhouse gases) Including GHG sources from agriculture and NOT including sinks is inconsistent with intent of CC Convention and objectives of Kyoto Acknowledge uncertainties and challenges associated with measurement, verification, permanence, natural vs. human induced

9. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 9 Sinks” Science Focus of “Sinks” Seminars (and informal hallway discussions over last 2+ years) C-sequestration consistent with universal principles of soil and water conservation –Soil Quality/Productivity relationship –Linkages to Biodiversity,Desertification, & Wetlands Conventions, global principles of sustainable develop –Other environmental benefits, water quality, habitat Address concerns/questions (herbicides, nutrients,etc) –Acknowledge other GHG and quantify relationship –Describe sink activities and estimated C gains, risks

10. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 10 Focus of Sinks Seminars Measurement and Verification Issues –Small sink in relation to large C pool –Variability high but manageable with appropriate methodology –Scaling up requires integration of technologies and use of process models –Uncertainties often less than those associated with sources (double standard?)

11. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 11 IPCC Special Report and Policy Implications Recommendations from Special Report should be basis for Decision on inclusion of additional sink activities in Kyoto Protocol Report confirmed that sinks are real and land use changes - legitimate means to reduce GHG Full C accounting would lead to significant carbon credits for many countries Options exist to deal with uncertainties, measurement and verification, etc. (cost?) Also, positive environ, social, economic impacts

12. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 12 Significant Progress over last 8 months  Impact of IPCC Science Special Report  Framework for countries’ sink submissions  Sinks Workshop in Poland to discuss SR and countries different issues/perspectives  August 1 submissions clarified sink numbers and countries expectations  Lyon, Viterbo mtgs. resulted in draft sinks text

13. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 13 Observations Growing acceptance of Ag. Soil Sinks and recognition of multiple secondary benefits and linkages to int’l sustainable development Size of potential (forest) sink is a major concern of many countries (EU, China/G77, OASIS, NGOs) and possibly their most N.B. criteria for inclusion rather than science or other criteria International awareness of GEMCo PSCB Project, farmer/industry (SSCA) support and science leadership, U.S. farm lobby support

14. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 14 Canada’s Agr. Soil Sinks Submission (Position)  Broad land-based inclusion to ensure balanced & comprehensive accounting of sources and sinks  Cropland and grazing land management and shelterbelts (in addition to forest management)  Potential C-sink of 4 to 20 Mt of CO 2 /yr over the 1 st commitment period (2008-12)

15. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 15 Sinks Submissions to U.N. Secretariat in August, 2000 Assigned Amount (Mt CO2/y) GAP (Mt CO2/y) Forest Managemt (Mt CO2/y) Cropland & Grazing (Mt CO2/y) U.S.5,6452,2001,05787.5 CANADA563200354 to 20

16. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 16 Canada’s Position (con’t)  Symmetrical and balanced treatment of sources and sinks  Balanced approach consistent with principles of sustainable development and transparency of GHG accounting  Uncertainties of non-CO 2 gases are greater than for C/CO 2

17. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 17 Summary from Lyon meetings Good progress on the Sinks – Parties Aug. 1 submissions lead to 10-page draft text Size of US sinks lead to discounting proposal EU concerns about scale, verification, natural EU/G77 concerns about sinks in CDM Canada presentations to African countries and Special Ag Soil Sinks awareness seminar Canada’s position- including Sinks is a condition of ratification of Kyoto Protocol

18. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 18 CoP6 Phase-In of Sinks (U.S/Canada/Japan proposal) Phase-in: movement toward fuller carbon accounting which better reflects what the atmosphere sees. allowing cost effective and environmentally beneficial activities to receive credit. addressing concerns of Parties about 3.4 activities in the first commitment period. Including C-sequestration activities –as monitoring and measurement techniques are implemented; future commitment periods.

19. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 19 What did we Want to Achieve with the Phase-In of Sinks? Address the issue of scale (which can include the possible influence of natural and indirect human effects) Be simple and transparent Preserve full incentives for additional action to enhance and protect sinks and reservoirs Needs of Parties and consistent with Parties’ understanding of what was agreed to at Kyoto

20. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 20 The Issue of Scale: Where should we focus?

21. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 21 The Issue of Scale: What is the concern? Country Forest Management and Base Year Emissions (Mtonnes Carbon Per Year)

22. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 22 The Issue of Scale: What is the concern? Country Forest Management Mtonnes Carbon Per Year Allowance

23. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 23 Defining the Initial Threshold The initial interval (threshold) is the point at which the scale issue becomes a concern. This was a judgement call – there is no scientific answer, There were several approaches to defining this initial threshold: –An absolute number –In relation to base year emissions, AA, or gap? –A combination of the 2 (e.g., the lesser of …)

24. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 24 So What Happened? EU initially receptive to Phase-In Proposal EU Media found out they were receptive EU rejected Phase-In idea as a non starter Counter proposals involved caps on sinks Little or no movement by Parties, impass? Pres. Of CoP developed compromise proposal that Parties could work hopefully from

25. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 25 President Pronk’s Proposal Additional forest and agriculture activities in 1 st Commitment Period, but… Significant 85% discount on forest mgte. - address scale, uncertainty, BAU Discount of 30% on agriculture sinks - address uncertainty, permanence,

26. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 26 Annual Ag. Sources & Sinks Assumptions 2010: 20% increase in livestock and 50% Adoption (optimistic?) of Best management practices

27. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 27 Future Implications/Needs If Ag Soil Sinks not included, greater burden on sector to reduce emissions (difficult & costly) Livestock sector will be major target (largely because of growing emissions) If Sinks are included, require national inventory system for C stock (& GHGs) More research on N2O and CH4, and C cycle process studies with alternative cropping systems; alternative uses of ag bi-products

28. Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 28