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Southeast U.S. Rental Housing Overview 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research June 20, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Southeast U.S. Rental Housing Overview 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research June 20, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Southeast U.S. Rental Housing Overview 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research June 20, 2015

2 National Trends – Occupancy Rates National Apartment Occupancy Rate = ~ 95%, Trending Up Source: Axiometrics Tax Credit Projects ~ 97%+

3 National Trends – Rent Growth 2014 Rent Growth 3.5% to 4.5% Tax Credit Rent Growth 2.5% to 3.0%

4 National Trends – Multifamily Construction New Multifamily Starts Increased in Each of Past 5 Years New Multifamily Starts in 2014 Exceeded Pre-recession Levels

5 Regional Comparison – Residential Building Permits Each of the four regional states had increased building permit activity between 2011 and 2013 North Carolina experienced the greatest increase since 2011 W. Virginia experienced nominal increase over past 5 years

6 Regional Comparison – LIHTC Vacancy Rates State Surveyed UnitsVacancy N. Carolina10,9231.8% S. Carolina5,2871.1% Virginia16,0212.2% W. Virginia1,4922.2% Region33,7231.9%

7 Regional Comparison – Median LIHTC Rental Rates @ 60% AMHI State Surveyed Units1-Br.2-Br.3-Br. N. Carolina10,923$538$627$736 S. Carolina5,287$550$650$740 Virginia16,021$721$833$940 W. Virginia1,492$506$585$668 Region 33,723 $605$688$777 Note: Median Rents for LIHTC projects are generally 15% to 20% below market-rate levels

8 North Carolina – Residential Building Permits Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html Housing Unit Building Permits for North Carolina: Permits2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Multifamily Permits12,93517,30715,43815,5708,4127,8427,94118,74715,97414,860 Single-Family Permits84,97582,71070,33939,08225,38826,04724,86329,94535,31635,051 Total Units97,910 100,01 785,77754,65233,80033,88932,80448,69251,29049,911

9 North Carolina – Renter Household Growth Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014 to 2019

10 North Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates CitySurveyed UnitsVacantVacancy Asheville78500.0% Charlotte2,92190.3% Concord69430.4% Durham1,436694.8% Fayetteville80060.7% Greensboro65060.9% Greenville624315.0% High Point41851.2% Kannapolis22094.1% Raleigh1,42160.4% Wilmington954615.4%

11 North Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI City Surveyed Units1-Br.2-Br.3-Br. Asheville785$484$546$659 Charlotte2,921$589$720$800 Concord694$575$685$780 Durham1,436$671$790$911 Fayetteville800$461$515$582 Greensboro650$566$653$722 Greenville624$470$546$595 High Point418$506$615$725 Kannapolis220$560$685$758 Raleigh1,421$650$675$830 Wilmington954$534$617$707

12 N. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

13 N. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications

14 South Carolina – Residential Building Permits Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html Housing Unit Building Permits for South Carolina: Permits2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Multifamily Permits10,8169,1017,8146,1402,0881,3332,6903,4204,4786,073 Single-Family Permits43,34941,68032,81719,78213,44512,69312,85215,29020,25021,470 Total Units54,16550,78140,63125,92215,53314,02615,54218,71024,72827,543

15 Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019 South Carolina – Renter Household Growth

16 City Surveyed UnitsVacantVacancy Aiken15400.0% Charleston38500.0% Columbia1,493372.5% Greenville97190.9% Hartsville11200.0% N. Charleston82670.8% Rock Hill53110.2% Spartanburg44651.1% Sumter36900.0% South Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

17 City Surveyed Units1-Br.2-Br.3-Br. Aiken154$400$485$565 Charleston385$607$717$740 Columbia1,493$633$730$830 Greenville971$550$650$750 Hartsville112$520$580$543 N. Charleston826$565$720$828 Rock Hill531$615$670$753 Spartanburg446$540$616$690 Sumter369$461$542$575 South Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI

18 S. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

19 S. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications

20 Virginia – Residential Building Permits Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html Housing Unit Building Permits for Virginia: Permits2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Multifamily Permits11,5598,7277,4187,6385,1844,8437,6729,78211,0499,848 Single-Family Permits49,95938,97730,94419,93916,26816,14915,62517,49620,89318,832 Total Units61,51847,70438,36227,57721,45220,99223,29727,27831,94228,680

21 Virginia – Renter Household Growth Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019

22 City Surveyed Units VacantVacancy Alexandria1,66430.2% Chesapeake2,395482.0% Hampton1,089373.4% Newport News669324.8% Norfolk1,811543.0% Petersburg774263.4% Portsmouth1,47430.2% Richmond3,7531273.4% Suffolk48800.0% Virginia Beach1,904170.9% Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

23 Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI City Surveyed Units 1-Br.2-Br.3-Br. Alexandria1,664$1,103$1,340$1,564 Chesapeake2,395$698$827$903 Hampton1,089$746$889$1,005 Newport News669$721$849$978 Norfolk1,811$714$830$930 Petersburg774$668$680$730 Portsmouth1,474$714$793$913 Richmond3,753$625$795$910 Suffolk488$714$756$835 Virginia Beach1,904$750$890$1,005

24 Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

25 Virginia – 2015 LIHTC Applications

26 West Virginia – Residential Building Permits Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html Housing Unit Building Permits for West Virginia: Permits2005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Multifamily Permits657485877921269599632955658774 Single-Family Permits5,4835,1603,9182,5601,9661,7961,5881,7631,9661,933 Total Units6,1405,6454,7953,4812,2352,3952,2202,7182,6242,707

27 Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019 West Virginia – Renter Household Growth

28 West Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates City Surveyed Units VacantVacancy Beckley13800.0% Charleston10300.0% Fairmont7800.0% Martinsburg55481.4% Morgantown16900.0% Parkersburg14100.0% Weirton8200.0% Wheeling2272511.0%* * Includes project in initial lease-up, all other properties full

29 West Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI City Surveyed Units 1-Br.2-Br.3-Br. Beckley138$470$570 Charleston103$480$555$630 Fairmont78--$618$677 Martinsburg554$597$745$875 Morgantown169$545$638$720 Parkersburg141$507$570$645 Weirton82$473$513$595 Wheeling227$475$533$650

30 West Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations Designation Unknown

31 Contact Patrick Bowen Bowen National Research Phone: 614-833-9300 E-mail: patrickb@bowennational.com Web: www.bowennational.compatrickb@bowennational.comwww.bowennational.com


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