1. Designing Landscapes for Sustainable Bird Populations Structured Decision Making Workshop Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

2. 2 Presentation Outline Strategic habitat conservation? Project Goals – Vision for the final products – Process – structured decision making Decision support tool roadmap – Defining and dividing the problem – Priority birds Objectives – bird habitat conservation Alternatives – selecting focal (surrogate) species Consequences of the selection – Landscape characteristics Objectives Mapping priorities

3. Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC) Applied Research

4. Strategic Habitat Conservation? Biological planning – Ecological context (Threats and limiting factors) – Selecting surrogate bird species (SDM) – Population objectives – SAMBI Plan – Species-habitat relationships – Jaime, Steve, Matt Conservation Design – Habitat required to meet the population objectives - ??? – Desired landscape configuration (SDM) – Decision support tool Where will we get the best response from conservation? 4

5. LMV JV decision support tool One focal habitat – bottomland hardwood forests Landscape dominated by agriculture Goal: target populations of surrogate forest bird species Primary means – Reforestation 5

6. 6 EGCP JV open pine decision tool One focal habitat Complex landscape Goal: target populations of surrogate open pine bird species Primary means: – Longleaf restoration – Improved management of existing habitat – Habitat acquisition Similar projects

7. 7 Vision for the final product(s) Multiple habitats Complex, dynamic landscape – Urban growth – Climate change Goal: target populations of many surrogate bird species Product(s) – Map of highest priority areas for each habitat type

8. 8 How do we get there? Structured Decision Making – Process for making smart choices References – Gregory, R.S., and R.L. Keeney. 2002. Making smarter environmental decisions. Journal American Water Resources Association. 38(6):1601- 1612 – Hammond, J.S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa. Smart choices: A practical guide to making better decisions, by Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 1999.

9. 9 Introduction to SDM Important decisions are made in any action or policy Smart decisions are fundamental to success Tools available to professionals: – Economics – Psychology – Statistics – Biology and ecology – Project management Ignore basic principles of sound decision making – Not just an “art”

10. 10 Five core elements - PrOACT Pr oblem – Solve the right problem O bjectives – Describe the desired outcomes A lternatives – Consider any reasonable actions that achieve the outcomes C onsequences – Describe how well alternatives meet objectives T radeoffs – Evaluate consequences of each alternative – Core of structured decision making (Hammond et al., 1999).

11. 11 Three additional elements - URL U ncertainty – Understand the limits of the data and models R isk Tolerance – Low tolerance ~ grave consequences – High tolerance ~ less serious consequences L inked Decisions – Do choices made today influence choices to make tomorrow? More advanced concepts

12. 12 Reasons for SDM process Group psychology encourages conformity – Results in erroneous choices – Fail to address individuals’ priorities Don’t explore minority views Real decisions left to someone else – Managers provide “competent options” – Dealing with complexity -> administrators – Neglects importance of individual decision making – Overlooks diversity of approaches/perspectives