1. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 ScotlandSeptember18.com Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results

2. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 1 Phase 1 (Published 2 nd February 2014)

3. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Likelihood of voting Two thirds claim they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 2014? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) 3 % 73% of Yes voters and 76% of No voters claim they are certain to vote. Among undecideds, 42% claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to play in the debate.

4. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 4 Voting Intentions Currently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42% No and 29% are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18 th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) / All who are certain to vote (779) All adults 16+All certain to vote

5. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 5 Devo Max Despite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of ‘Devo Max’ would be supported by one third (35%), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the most Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) All adults 16+ % %

6. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Knowledge about the issues Over half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81% among undecideds 6 Enough knowledge = 43% Q6 To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) Not enough knowledge = 56% 56% of Yes voters and 53% of No voters claim they have enough knowledge compared to just 15% of undecideds. Among this latter group, 81% feel they do not have enough knowledge.

7. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Awareness and reading of White Paper Whilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14% indicated they had read any of it. 7 Read any of the White Paper = 14% Aware of the White Paper = 71% Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland’s independence (called “Scotland’s Future”) was launched on 26th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it? Base: All Adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

8. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Cameron vs. Salmond Two thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17% disagreeing 8 Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) Three quarters (75%) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 60% of No voters and 68% of Undecideds %

9. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Effectiveness of campaigns Neither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32% agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 34% agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence 9 Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign – 58% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 48% of No voters agree that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK %

10. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Visibility of campaigns There is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence 10 Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) 73% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility, compared to 81% of No voters who feel the same about Better Together %

11. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Phase 2 (Published 10 th February)

12. 3.14 X AXIS 6.65 BASE MARGIN 5.95 TOP MARGIN 4.52 CHART TOP 11.90 LEFT MARGIN 11.90 RIGHT MARGIN TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Most important topic in deciding how to vote Economy and employment are seen as most important issues in deciding how to vote 12 Q1a Which of these would you say is most important to you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054) % *

13. 3.14 X AXIS 6.65 BASE MARGIN 5.95 TOP MARGIN 4.52 CHART TOP 11.90 LEFT MARGIN 11.90 RIGHT MARGIN TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Importance of topics in deciding how to vote A summary of ranked importance shows health, education and economic issues as priority areas 13 Q1a-Q1e Which of these would you say is important to you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054) % Total first to fifth most important (%)

14. 3.14 X AXIS 6.65 BASE MARGIN 5.95 TOP MARGIN 4.52 CHART TOP 11.90 LEFT MARGIN 11.90 RIGHT MARGIN TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Issues currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament Whilst there is some awareness of the main areas already devolved, the results also highlight that many are lacking knowledge about the status of key issues, which may affect their perception of the debate 14 Q1G Which of these issues do you think are currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054) %

15. 3.14 X AXIS 6.65 BASE MARGIN 5.95 TOP MARGIN 4.52 CHART TOP 11.90 LEFT MARGIN 11.90 RIGHT MARGIN TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Most important way of receiving information 45% say that TV is the most important way for them to get information which might help them decide how to vote, with one fifth indicating a preference for online 15 Q5A Which of the following would you say is most important to you in helping you to make a decision about how to vote? Base: All 16+ adults in Scotland (1,054) Any TV = 45% Any internet / online = 20% % Any radio = 45%

16. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 Methodology 16 A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 14 th and 20 th January 2014. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing). Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 67 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically. A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection. To ensure the sample was representative of adults 16+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.

17. TNS Independence Referendum Survey © TNS January 2014 122694 ScotlandSeptember18.com Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results