1. Proposition 200 The So-Called “Public Safety First Initiative” An Overview By Russell Lowes 10/16/09

2. What the proposal attempts to do... Prop. 200 would amend Chapter 25 of the City Charter to: Require that the City spend additional monies to increase police staffing levels from between 1.9 and 2.0, to 2.4 police for every 1,000 residents, and Require that the City spend additional monies to increase police staffing levels from between 1.9 and 2.0, to 2.4 police for every 1,000 residents, and Require the City to spend additional monies to increase fire department staffing levels. Require the City to spend additional monies to increase fire department staffing levels.... However, it provides no funding for this increase.... However, it provides no funding for this increase.

3. Prop. 200 is an “unfunded mandate.” This proposal would not be legal to put on the ballot, were it presented to the State of Arizona. Under State Law, any State initiative must have a matching funding source. Under State Law, any State initiative must have a matching funding source. However, because this is a City proposal, and this requirement is not there; proposals to the City of Tucson do not yet require funding for their mandates. However, because this is a City proposal, and this requirement is not there; proposals to the City of Tucson do not yet require funding for their mandates.

4. What does “unfunded mandate” mean?... An unfunded mandate, in this case, forces the City of Tucson to direct funds toward two departments, without adequate funds for all or some of the other departments and programs.... An unfunded mandate, in this case, forces the City of Tucson to direct funds toward two departments, without adequate funds for all or some of the other departments and programs. An unfunded mandate would cause massive cuts in other services, or/and raise taxes. Even with a tax increase, massive service cuts would be made in the short term, until taxes are in place. An unfunded mandate would cause massive cuts in other services, or/and raise taxes. Even with a tax increase, massive service cuts would be made in the short term, until taxes are in place.

5. How much money are we talking?  According to City Staff, once it is fully funded in five years, Prop. 200 would cost between $51 million and $67 million per year.  Our total budget is $1.3 billion, but much of that comes with restrictions for Tucson Water and garbage fees, for example, and cannot be siphoned off for general budget discretionary use.  The remaining budget equals $420 million per year.  Our police and fire budget equal $269 million per year.  The remaining $152 million equals 36% of the $420 million.

6. Is the City of Tucson in a Position to Weather this Added Expense?  The City of Tucson staff is expecting at least a $46 million shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year. The City has fared better than many other cities during this downturn, but the City Staff is expecting great hardship in the next few years.  Former Police Chief and current Deputy City Manager Richard Miranda said he’s concerned about hiring the 80 officers a year required, on top of the 55-60 we replace through attrition. “I don’t think [we] could handle the training and I don’t think we could get that many candidates at one time of the high caliber we’d be looking for.”

7. What is the impact of Prop. 200 on the remaining funds?  Of the $152 million that remains for all other non-utility non-police & fire, the extra cost of between $51 million and 67 million would reduce that $152 by 34- 44%.  In other words, of the $152 million for these services, we would now have only $85-101 million, less the previously mentioned expected shortfall of $48 million for next year.  Subtracting this shortfall brings funding for these services down to $37-53 million.

8. Is this money really needed for police and fire services?  The City Council has agreed that more police and fire services are needed over time, but that these services need to be managed along with other services, like social services, library, bus transit, road maintenance, etc.  With the current 1.9 to 2.0 police officers per 1000, we are over the average of 1.7 for the West, according to the FBI.  The City Council has committed to a plan and even though funding has been short, the police and fire goals have already been met to-date – even without the funding.

9. Are the Police and Fire Departments Underperforming? That question gets a resounding NO! Tucson Police Department statistics show a 12% decrease in violent crime from 2008 to 2009, with 55% fewer homicides this year. Motor vehicle thefts have dropped 30%. Arsons have dropped 28%. Overall, violent and property crimes has dropped 11%.

10. What about the longer trends? Now you’ve seen the short-term crime trend improvements. What about the longer-term trends? The Tucson Police Department’s website shows that the violent crime rate is down over 35% since 1995. See this website address for this and the next two slides: http://tpdinternet.tucsonaz.gov/Stats/ucrrateall.pdf

13. How does Albuquerque, Tucson’s most similar southwestern city compare?

14. How many prisoners does the U.S. have compared to the rest of the world?

16. Some Qs to ponder... Is it possible that by cutting other services that we will just add to the stresses in our community that will cause more crime to occur? Is it possible that replacing social services, art funding and park funding will result in higher crime driving a cycle of never-ending ramp-ups in emergency service funding?

17. What are the other City departments and programs that would be affected? Libraries Libraries Parks & Recreation Parks & Recreation Bus Service Bus Service Social service funding for: Social service funding for: Pre-Adolescent Parent Diversion Program Pre-Adolescent Parent Diversion Program Happy Hours Happy Hours Choices for Families Choices for Families Tucson Center for Adolescent Parents Tucson Center for Adolescent Parents KIDCO KIDCO Other programs for families, children and seniors Other programs for families, children and seniors

18. ...continued The bus transit system, including the handicapped bus system The bus transit system, including the handicapped bus system The Tucson Zoo The Tucson Zoo Art funding Art funding Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc....and other departments and services....and other departments and services. But what about the other ripples of a non- funded mandate being forced on the City of Tucson? But what about the other ripples of a non- funded mandate being forced on the City of Tucson?

19. The County would be forced to use funding......for law enforcement efforts, including the jail and juvenile detention. This would cause a rippling effect, draining funds from the non- enforcement areas....for law enforcement efforts, including the jail and juvenile detention. This would cause a rippling effect, draining funds from the non- enforcement areas. These areas include, again, These areas include, again, Libraries Libraries Parks & Recreation Parks & Recreation Social services, like PADP, KIDCO, Happy Hours, Father to Father, etc. Social services, like PADP, KIDCO, Happy Hours, Father to Father, etc. Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. Traffic maintenance, filling potholes, maintaining signs, roads, sidewalks, etc. Art funding Art funding

20. All told, Pima County would have to spend an additional... $28.4 million annually at first, increasing thereafter $28.4 million annually at first, increasing thereafter $95 million for a near-future jail expansion. $95 million for a near-future jail expansion. WHERE WILL THIS COME FROM? First, there would be immediate cuts and then there might be attempts to raise taxes. With costs of this magnitude, the County would have to get voter approval for a large property tax increase. Without that approval, service cuts would continue.

21. What is being said about Prop. 200: Our City Manager, Mike Letcher, says that “200 will be catastrophic for the City of Tucson.” Our City Manager, Mike Letcher, says that “200 will be catastrophic for the City of Tucson.” Our County Manager, Chuck Huckleberry, says that if Prop. 200 passes, “Property taxes will increase 8-10%.” He also said that if it passes it could cause Tucson to go bankrupt, with Pima then going bankrupt, and it could even put more strain on the State of Arizona, causing bankruptcy. Our County Manager, Chuck Huckleberry, says that if Prop. 200 passes, “Property taxes will increase 8-10%.” He also said that if it passes it could cause Tucson to go bankrupt, with Pima then going bankrupt, and it could even put more strain on the State of Arizona, causing bankruptcy.

22. For more information: The City of Tucson has a website that has:  Prop. 200 in its full version  Independent Audit and Performance Commission's (IAPC) Report to Mayor and Council: Potential Costs Associated with Implementation of the Public Safety First Initiative, and much more information... Independent Audit and Performance Commission's (IAPC) Report to Mayor and Council: Potential Costs Associated with Implementation of the Public Safety First InitiativeIndependent Audit and Performance Commission's (IAPC) Report to Mayor and Council: Potential Costs Associated with Implementation of the Public Safety First Initiative ... all at: www.TucsonAZ.gov/psfi