1. Intro Opportunity for Higher Education in a Perfect Storm Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity Programs Newark, New Jersey April 8, 2013 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar, The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst, Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

2. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

3. The Perfect Storm Realities: Stages of economic development: Primary: agriculture, natural resources Secondary: manufacturing Tertiary: human capital Dynamic demography Shrinking white/growing minority populations Growing shares of poor children in K-12 and higher education Aging population, living longer Globalization

4. The Perfect Storm Federal policy choices: Progressive policy era: 1862 to 1980 1862: Morrill Land Grant Act 1895: Second Morrill Land Grant Act 1944: Servicemen’s Readjustment Act 1957: National Defense Education Act 1965: Higher Education Act 1972: Pell Grant program 1978: Middle Income Student Assistance Act Regressive policy era: 1980 to present 1981, 1982, 1994: Pell Grant maximum award reduced 1987: Federal aid moves away from need-based grants Aging population, living longer

5. The Perfect Storm State policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Cutbacks in state appropriations efforts Colleges and universities raise tuition charges to students Growth in merit based scholarship programs

6. The Perfect Storm Institutional policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Enrollment management Prestige race (U.S. News) Revenue replacement: full pay versus institutional aid, non- residents versus state residents Research versus instruction in public 4-year institutions

7. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

8. K-12 School Lunch Program

9. Upper Family Income Limits for 1 st, 2 nd, & 3 rd Quartiles

10. Low Income Student Shares of Total

11. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

14. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

15. Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Ed

21. National Avg Resident Undergrad Tuition & Fees in Public Inst

22. Need-Based Grant Share of State Student Financial Aid

23. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

24. Need-Based Share of Federal Student Financial Aid

25. Purchasing Power of Pell Grant

26. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

27. Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

28. Changes in Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

29. State/Local Appropriations Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Institutions

30. Tuition & fee Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Insts

31. Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-Year Insts

32. Changes in Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4- Year Insts

33. Instruction Share of Core Expenditures in Public 4-Year Insts

34. Tuition Share of Instruction + Student Services in Public 4-Year Insts

35. Public 4-Year Shares of Undergrads with & without Pell Grants

36. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

37. Pell Grants Enrolled in Public & Private in Clgs & Univ

38. Pell Grant Shares in 4-Year & 2- Year

39. High School Grad Rates by Family Income Quartiles

41. College continuation Rates by Income Quartiles

42. Change in College Continuation Rates

43. Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24

44. Change in Completion Rate

47. Distribution of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Age 24

48. Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 yr olds OECD 2003

49. Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2009

50. Change in Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2000-2009

51. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree attain OECD 2020

52. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

60. Download this PowerPoint from: www.postsecondary.org Email to request PowerPoint from: tom@postsecondary.org Final Contact Information: