1. Real-time Seismology Masumi Yamada Kyoto University

2. Jim Mori

3. Earthquake Location of aftershocks determined (Mainshock was assumed to be the same place) Magnitude estimated as 6-7 0 min 14 min 24 min 1994 Northridge EQ Jim Mori

5. 2011 Tohoku EQ Earthquake P-wave detected Location and Magnitude determined Earthquake Early Warning issued Observed Seismic Intensity reported Tsunami Warning issued 0 sec 19 sec 27 sec 3 min 3.5 min

7. 29min 34min Shaking arrival Tsunami arrival Mainichi.jp 10sec 55min Tsunami hight

8. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs

9. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

10. Wald(2005) Seismic Stations San Francis co Los Anagele s

11. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

12. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs communicationseismometer

13. sens or Japan Meteorological Agency TV radio cell phone town speaker provider train factory <1sec

14. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs communicationseismometer

15. Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismologycommunicationseismometer

16. Kanamori (2005)

17. Trade-off: Speed vs Accuracy

18. 8 warnings for M6-7 earthquakes in 3 years …but 10 times more after March 11, 2011. M Obs. Pred. May 8, 20087.2 6 + 6 - July 8, 2008 6.1 5 - 5 - July 24, 20086.8 5 - 6 - Sep. 11, 2008 7.1 5 + 5 - Aug. 11, 20096.5 5 + 6 - Oct. 30, 20096.8 5 - 4 Feb. 27, 2010 7.2 6 - 5 - Mar. 14, 2010 6.7 5 - 5 -

20. 64% 17% 13% 1 1 1 1 4 4 Cell phone TV Radio Announce Town speaker Unknown Tohoku earthquake March 11, 2011

21. “Earthquake occurred off Fukushima. Prepare for strong shaking.” (Japan Meteorological Agency)

22. Galapagos phone Smart phone -NTT OK -Au OK -Softbank NO -NTT NO -Au OK -Softbank NO (iphone) vs

23. with EEW 47% no EEW 53% 47% of cell phone can receive EEW JMA website, September 2010

24. How to Use EEW ?

25. 27 bullet trains were stopped without derailments. - March 11, 2011

27. 2003 Sanriku EQ US $15 million loss 2005 Miyagi EQ US $200k loss $600k invested in EEW and structural improvements OKI SEMICONDUCTOR

29. Nature.com

30. Human Seismometer iSeismometer Tsunami Warning Your idea

31. Thank you for your attention. “Real-time Seismology” Masumi Yamada @Kyoto Univ.

33. Good!Bad… 3/11 M9 3/12 M6 JMA website Improve Location Estimation

34. Real-time Seismology