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Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained Future of Pakistan Dr. Zaigham Habib
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Water Debate 1.Pakistan in Global Context 2.Natural Water Scenario 3.Understanding Future Constraints 4.Some of the Solutions
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Need for a Debate Debate, dialogue and consultation - different communication processes Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn) – scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion formation & selection of solutions Dialogue (discourse, convey) – bringing close diverse interests and stakeholders Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2 nd opinion) - a tool to refine solutions
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Lack of Debates in water Sector Argue, question, disagree formulate solutions and options 1.Diverse technical opinions are least discussed – leading to limited solutions and narrow perceptions 2.Scientific options not taken neutrally 3.Too much consumed by the fear of talking about “bad solutions/ options” 4.A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity
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Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water? 10^6 km3 stored in aquifers. 11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation. 91*10 3 km3 in natural lakes 5 10 3 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950. 2,120 km3 in rivers – constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow and ice. Fresh Water – Global Picture
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Physical water scarcity --
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A water based Economy ---
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Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average
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Physical and economic water scarcity
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Per capita Eastern rivers Groundwater catchments Some Facts Area: 803,940 km 2 Population: 160 million Climate: Arid; variable rainfall, river inflows & groundwater quality
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Gross Available Water Rainfall = Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF) Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 – 2006) Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF
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Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India – as a result of Indus Water Treaty
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Changed Ecology along the Rivers The riverine natural vegetation and non-irrigated agriculture is replaced by the well irrigation. The flood based forest have severely damaged during recent drought years
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Increased uses from rivers and decreased drainage inflow can cause local floods
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Groundwater Aquifer Many issues Actual potential Limited monitoring grid Sustainability of use patterns High value for farmers Control mechanism
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Demand in 2025 crossing total availability
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Water Constrained Future 1.Permanent Physical Scarcity - population 2.Most of the water has already been utilized 3.Natural water cushions depleting 4.Water based economy – high manpower, low productivity 5.Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on surface storages 6.New water use sectors are emerging 7.Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and potential 8.Climate Changes
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Towards Solutions
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Meeting demands of Socio economic and environment sectors Solution in hand - surface storage Good Scope for hydropower Limited water for agriculture from storage Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future Environmental needs – an essential area to be considered
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Expanding Management Approaches Conventional Linear cause-effect solutions Scope limited, problems deep-rooted Replicability assuming neutral Context (conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.) Complex drivers of change and management Comprehensive adaptive Manage the Cause as well Protect resource base and long term resilience Effective demand management Diversification of water-intensive production
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Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Base – in quantity Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from planning 11 projects on western rivers; –Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan –Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan side Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains Groundwater aquifer – artificial recharge in fresh zone minimize/drain effluent in saline area
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Quality Management and control Many Grey Areas Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes – treat at source, reuse waste water treatment – set examples Drainage management – lessons learned? Drainage functions of rivers and main canals Groundwater quality – exact issue ? Leaching of agri lands Excess water used in saline areas
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Productivity of water in Agriculture Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete Field level water efficient technologies new initiative Value addition increasing trends Talking about “green to gene revolution” Yet, The yield of major crops stagnant Uncertainty for farmers has increased Public sector investments increasing and essential
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Food security & Agriculture National policy about produce, market and trade Food security important because of declining production of wheat in USA & Australia, Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits & maize A link between livelihood oriented small marginal farming and food grain production consistent Potential of rain-fed and saline areas
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wheatRiceCottonsugarcaneMaize World2.914.01.9565.64.75 Punjab India4.39 3.400.3160.962.49 India average 2.673.00.869.951.9 China4.236.273.3866.015.1 Egypt6.019.52.661.958.0 Pakistan2.5922.348.912.85 Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005
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Meeting Agriculture Targets Economically feasible agriculture model for small farms (inputs, technologies, markets) Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge Crop zoning Low water use and salinity tolerant crops Livestock sub-sector New opportunities for rural labor force shifting from farming; agro-based industry, local business
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Domestic, infrastructure supplies A big future Challenge Safe drinking water promised to all Municipal supplies to big cities, semi- urban and advance rural areas New infrastructure and down developments
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From where this water will come? 1.Main storages – needs for allocation, transfer from agriculture From Existing canal system – some allocations in saline areas, more will be required for new projects Local surface resources: small rivers, lakes – replacement or protection Groundwater – largest access, quality and quantity threatened
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Approach for domestic supply management Protect quality of all water resources Priority to local resources Allocate and account all uses Demand side measures can not be postponed Capacity of household appliances Rain harvesting wherever possible Control on infrastructure, commercial uses Household waste management Pricing
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Regional Context NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local water access. Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall, riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands, lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas, cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area, groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing, rivers pollution and dry conditions. Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation
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Sustainable Future Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???) Actions at regional, local and users levels (water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and regulation) National capacity to define issues and select sustainable solutions (drivers of management) Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and scientific models (who needs it? Public sector, users, donors?)
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Thank You
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