1. Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System: present state and future development Marina Tonani and the Operational Oceanography Group at INGV, Italy

2. Outline: MFS-MOON Monitoring sytem Basin forecasting system Regional forecasting system Basin and regional coupled physical and geo-biological models Application (oil spill, body rescue, contaminant) Evaluation of the forecast R&D Conclusion

3. Multidisciplinary Multi-platform Observing system (permanent and relocatable) Numerical models of hydrodynamics and ecosystem, coupled asynchronously to atmospheric forecast Data assimilation for optimal field estimates and parameter estimation Continuos production of nowcasts/forecasts of relevant environmental state variables The operational approach: from large to coastal space scales (NESTING), weekly to monthly time scales MFS philosophy  MOON MOON goals: To consolidate the operational oceanographic observational/modelling system in the Mediterranean Sea To demonstrate the usage of the marine environmental prediction system for integrated management of open ocean and coastal marine areas

4. Multiparametric buoys (M3A) in Ligurian, Adriatic and Cretan Sea XBT VOS/Soop ARGO FLOAT (MedArgo) Daily SST from satellite interpolated in RT on the model grid (1/16°x1/16°) SLA from satellite (Jason1, GFO, ENVISAT and T/P) Open ocean monitoring by gliders Scatterometer daily winds analysis on a grid of 1/2°x1/2° Monitoring System:

5. gliders SOOP ARGO Buoy Real time data collected over the period: 2004-2006

6. Basin scale forecasting system: MFS1671 BATHYMETRY (m) NUMERICAL MODEL: Horizontal resolution 1/16°x1/16° Vertical resolution 72 unevenly spaced levels Numerical codeOPA 8.2 Close boundaries in the Atlantic ocean Free surface parameterization Asyncrhronously coupled with ECWF analyses or forecasts atmospheric fields DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME: SOFA: sub optimal interpolation scheme Multivariate (X) and multidata (Y) in input Intermittent (24hr) assimilation of: Satellite SLA Vertical profiles (T & S) Satellite SST

7. Forecast production and broadcast: Every day 10 days forecast are produced in RT (11hr delay) Every Thursday 15 days hindcast are produce with the assimilation of all the available data Every day a Web Bulletin is published Every month an electronic monthly bulletin is released on the web site describing the results of the MFS system for the previosly month and comparing them with climatological data and climatic index Every day the data are available through a dedicated ftp to all the users www.bo.ingv.it/mfs

9. Sub-regional models at 3 km Shelf models at 1-2 km ESEOO POSEIDON MFS disseminate daily forecasts to 11 nested models

10. MFS offline coupling between physics and biochemistry

11.  providing meteo-marine information  customize simulation of trajectories Application:support to the italian Coast Guard for body rescue INTEGRATION TIME: 12:00 24th September 12:00 27th September Currents from Adriatic Regional model at 2km resolution Release of 7 particels Trajectories from UVT at 5m depth MAN OVERBOARD

12. Support to REMPEC for the NEWFLAME accident in the area of Gibraltar currents from MFS model and interpretation of the meteo-marine conditions dedicated simulation of oil dispertion with MEDSLICK

13. 11 sett. 2007 Alcecira Bay 12 sett. 2007 Alcecira Bay 14 sett. 2007 Alcecira Bay 15 sett. 2007 Alcecira Bay

14. NR evaluation of the basin scale forecast: Web evaluation updated every week Four cm 0.2 PSU One degree PERIOD:June 2004-July 2006

15. DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast: Skillscore SSP=percentage accuracy of the forecast (FA) with respect to the persistency (FP) (murphy 1983) 22 ten days forecasts (16th August 2005 to 10th January 2006) SSP>0 forecast more accurate then persistence SSP % OF SKILL SCORE

16. DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast: comparison with indipendent buoy data January 2005 April-May 2005 (J.Pistoia, Tesi di Laurea, 2007)

17. DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast: comparison with indipendent buoy data Temperature: VALENCIA ALBORAN

18. DT evaluation of the basin scale forecast: comparison with indipendent buoy data Salinity: CABO DE GATA ALBORAN

19. MFS R&D: New basin scale ocean model nested with operational MERCATOR global model New assimilation scheme (3D-VAR) Ensamble methodologies (Bayesian) Production of re-analyses for the past 50 years Re-formulation of air-sea fluxes bulk formulae Increase resolution of all the regional-shelf nested models Introduce data-assimilation also at regional and coastal scale Develop further relocatable model for contaminant dispersal

20. CONCLUSIONS: The MOON system is delivering every day a quality controlled, observationally based information about the physical state of the system and the short term forecasts The MOON operational products are evolving toward a routine marine environmental state assessment service with ecosystem forecasting becoming a reality GMES will offer the framework for the sustainability of the system: need to worry about a good balance between operationality and research MOON is forcing in several R&D directions: