1. 1 of 39 LECTURE 5 Government in the EconomyGovernment Purchases ( G ), Net Taxes ( T ), and Disposable income ( Y d ) The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier EffectsThe Government Spending MultiplierThe Tax MultiplierThe Balanced-Budget MultiplierThe Federal BudgetThe Budget in 2007Fiscal Policy Since 1993: The Clinton and Bush Administrations The Federal Government DebtThe Economy ’ s Influence on the Government Budget Tax Revenues Depend on the State of the Economy Some Government Expenditures Depend on the State of the Economy Automatic StabilizersFiscal DragFull-Employment BudgetLooking AheadAppendix A: Deriving the Fiscal Policy Multipliers Appendix B: The Case in Which Tax Revenues Depend on Income LECTURE OUTLINE The Government and Fiscal Policy

2. 2 of 39 The Government and Fiscal Policy fiscal policy The government’s spending and taxing policies. monetary policy The behavior of the Federal Reserve concerning the nation’s money supply.

3. 3 of 39 Government in the Economy discretionary fiscal policy Changes in taxes or spending that are the result of deliberate changes in government policy. net taxes (T) Taxes paid by firms and households to the government minus transfer payments made to households by the government. disposable, or after-tax, income (Y d ) Total income minus net taxes: Y - T. Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) disposable income ≡ total income − net taxes Y d ≡ Y − T

4. 4 of 39 Government in the Economy Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d )  FIGURE 9.1 Adding Net Taxes (T) and Government Purchases (G) to the Circular Flow of Income

5. 5 of 39 Government in the Economy Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) When government enters the picture, the aggregate income identity gets cut into three pieces: And aggregate expenditure (AE) equals:

6. 6 of 39 Government in the Economy Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) budget deficit The difference between what a government spends and what it collects in taxes in a given period: G - T. budget deficit ≡ G − T

7. 7 of 39 Government in the Economy Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) Adding Taxes to the Consumption Function To modify our aggregate consumption function to incorporate disposable income instead of before- tax income, instead of C = a + bY, we write C = a + bY d or C = a + b(Y − T) Our consumption function now has consumption depending on disposable income instead of before-tax income.

8. 8 of 39 Government in the Economy Government Purchases (G), Net Taxes (T), and Disposable Income (Y d ) Planned Investment The government can affect investment behavior through its tax treatment of depreciation and other tax policies.

9. 9 of 39 Government in the Economy The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) Y = C + I + G TABLE 9.1 Finding Equilibrium for I = 100, G = 100, and T = 100 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) Output (Income) Y Net Taxes T Disposable Income Y d / Y  T Consumption Spending (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) Saving S (Y d – C) Planned Investment Spending I Government Purchases G Planned Aggregate Expenditure C + I + G Unplanned Inventory Change Y  (C + I + G) Adjustment to Disequi- librium 300100200250  50 100 450  150 Output8 500100400 0100 600  100 Output8 70010060055050100 750  50 Output8 900100800700100 9000Equilibrium 1,1001001,000850150100 1,050+ 50Output9 1,3001001,2001,000200100 1,200+ 100Output9 1,5001001,4001,150250100 1,350+ 150Output9

10. 10 of 39 Government in the Economy The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income)  FIGURE 9.2 Finding Equilibrium Output/Income Graphically Because G and I are both fixed at 100, the aggregate expenditure function is the new consumption function displaced upward by I + G = 200. Equilibrium occurs at Y = C + I + G = 900.

11. 11 of 39 Government in the Economy The Determination of Equilibrium Output (Income) The Saving/Investment Approach to Equilibrium saving/investment approach to equilibrium: S + T = I + G To derive this, we know that in equilibrium, aggregate output (income) (Y) equals planned aggregate expenditure (AE). By definition, AE equals C + I + G; and by definition, Y equals C + S + T. Therefore, at equilibrium C + S + T = C + I + G Subtracting C from both sides leaves: S + T = I + G

12. 12 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects At this point, we are assuming that the government controls G and T. In this section, we will review three multipliers: Government spending multiplier Tax multiplier Balanced-budget multiplier

13. 13 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Government Spending Multiplier government spending multiplier The ratio of the change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in government spending.

14. 14 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Government Spending Multiplier TABLE 9.2 Finding Equilibrium After a Government Spending Increase of 50 (G Has Increased from 100 in Table 9.1 to 150 Here) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) Output (Income) Y Net Taxes T Disposable Income Y d / Y  T Consumption Spending (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) Saving S (Y d – C) Planned Investment Spending I Government Purchases G Planned Aggregate Expenditure C + I + G Unplanned Inventory Change Y  (C + I + G) Adjustment To Disequilibrium 300100200250  50 100150500  200 Output8 500100400 0100150650  150 Output8 70010060055050100150800  100 Output8 900100800700100 150950  50 Output8 1,1001001,0008501501001501,1000Equilibrium 1,3001001,2001,0002001001501,250+ 50Output 

15. 15 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Government Spending Multiplier  FIGURE 9.3 The Government Spending Multiplier Increasing government spending by 50 shifts the AE function up by 50. As Y rises in response, additional consumption is generated. Overall, the equilibrium level of Y increases by 200, from 900 to 1,100.

16. 16 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Tax Multiplier tax multiplier The ratio of change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in taxes.

17. 17 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Balanced-Budget Multiplier balanced-budget multiplier The ratio of change in the equilibrium level of output to a change in government spending where the change in government spending is balanced by a change in taxes so as not to create any deficit. The balanced-budget multiplier is equal to 1: The change in Y resulting from the change in G and the equal change in T are exactly the same size as the initial change in G or T.

18. 18 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Balanced-Budget Multiplier TABLE 9.3 Finding Equilibrium After a Balanced-Budget Increase in G and T of 200 Each (Both G and T Have Increased from 100 in Table 9.1 to 300 Here) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9) Output (Income) Y Net Taxes T Disposable Income Y d / Y  T Consumption Spending (C = 100 +.75 Y d ) Planned Investment Spending I Government Purchases G Planned Aggregate Expenditure C + I + G Unplanned Inventory Change Y  (C + I + G) Adjustment To Disequilibrium 500300200250100300650  150 Output8 700300400 100300800  100 Output8 900300600550100300950  50 Output8 1,1003008007001003001,1000Equilibrium 1,3003001,0008501003001,250+ 50Output9 1,5003001,2001,0001003001,400+ 100Output9

19. 19 of 39 Fiscal Policy at Work: Multiplier Effects The Balanced-Budget Multiplier TABLE 9.4 Summary of Fiscal Policy Multipliers Policy StimulusMultiplier Final Impact On Equilibrium Y Government spending multiplier Increase or decrease in the level of government purchases: ∆G Tax multiplierIncrease or decrease in the level of net taxes: ∆T Balanced-budget multiplier Simultaneous balanced-budget increase or decrease in the level of government purchases and net taxes: ∆G = ∆T 1

20. 20 of 39 The Federal Budget federal budget The budget of the federal government. The “budget” is really three different budgets. First, it is a political document that dispenses favors to certain groups or regions and places burdens on others. Second, it is a reflection of goals the government wants to achieve. Third, the budget may be an embodiment of some beliefs about how (if at all) the government should manage the macroeconomy.

21. 21 of 39 The Federal Budget The Budget in 2007 TABLE 9.5 Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, 2007 (Billions of Dollars) AmountPercentage Of Total Receipts Personal income taxes1,162.143.5 Excise taxes and customs duties99.93.7 Corporate income taxes380.814.3 Taxes from the rest of the world13.40.5 Contributions for social insurance953.035.7 Interest receipts and rents and royalties25.10.9 Current transfer receipts from business and persons39.41.5 Current surplus of government enterprises − 2.3 − 0.0 Total2,671.4100.0 Current Expenditures Consumption expenditures856.029.6 Transfer payments to persons1,270.743.9 Transfer payments to the rest of the world38.61.3 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments377.513.1 Interest payments302.410.5 Subsidies 46.7 1.6 Total2,892.0100.0 Net federal government saving—surplus (+) or deficit (−) (Total current receipts − Total current expenditures) − 220.6 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

22. 22 of 39 The Federal Budget The Budget in 2007 federal surplus (+) or deficit (  ) Federal government receipts minus expenditures.

23. 23 of 39 The Federal Budget Fiscal Policy Since 1993: The Clinton and Bush Administrations  FIGURE 9.4 Federal Personal Income Taxes as a Percentage of Taxable Income, 1993 I–2007 IV

24. 24 of 39 The Federal Budget Fiscal Policy Since 1993: The Clinton and Bush Administrations  FIGURE 9.5 Federal Government Consumption Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP and Federal Transfer Payments and Grants-in-Aid as a Percentage of GDP, 1993 I–2007 IV

25. 25 of 39 The Federal Budget Fiscal Policy Since 1993: The Clinton and Bush Administrations  FIGURE 9.6 The Federal Government Surplus (+) or Deficit (–) as a Percentage of GDP, 1993 I–2007 IV

26. 26 of 39 The Federal Budget The Federal Government Debt federal debt The total amount owed by the federal government. privately held federal debt The privately held (non-government-owned) debt of the U.S. government.

27. 27 of 39 The Federal Budget The Federal Government Debt  FIGURE 9.7 The Federal Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1993 I–2007 IV

28. 28 of 39 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Tax Revenues Depend on the State of the Economy Tax revenue, on the other hand, depends on taxable income, and income depends on the state of the economy, which the government does not completely control. Some Government Expenditures Depend on the State of the Economy Transfer payments tend to go down automatically during an expansion. Inflation often picks up when the economy is expanding. This can lead the government to spend more than it had planned to spend. Any change in the interest rate changes government interest payments.

29. 29 of 39 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Some Government Expenditures Depend on the State of the Economy Fiscal Policy In 2008 Congress Approves Economic-Stimulus Bill Wall Street Journal

30. 30 of 39 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Automatic Stabilizers automatic stabilizers Revenue and expenditure items in the federal budget that automatically change with the state of the economy in such a way as to stabilize GDP. Fiscal Drag fiscal drag The negative effect on the economy that occurs when average tax rates increase because taxpayers have moved into higher income brackets during an expansion.

31. 31 of 39 The Economy’s Influence on the Government Budget Full-Employment Budget full-employment budget What the federal budget would be if the economy were producing at the full-employment level of output. structural deficit The deficit that remains at full employment. cyclical deficit The deficit that occurs because of a downturn in the business cycle.

32. 32 of 39 automatic stabilizers balanced-budget multiplier budget deficit cyclical deficit discretionary fiscal policy disposable, or after-tax, income (Y d ) federal budget federal debt federal surplus (+) or deficit (−) fiscal drag fiscal policy full-employment budget government spending multiplier monetary policy REVIEW TERMS AND CONCEPTS net taxes (T) privately held federal debt structural deficit tax multiplier 1.Disposable income Y d ≡ Y − T 2.AE ≡ C + I + G 3.Government budget deficit ≡ G − T 4.Equilibrium in an economy with government: Y = C + I + G 5.Saving/investment approach to equilibrium in an economy with government: S + T = I + G 6.Government spending multiplier ≡ 7.Tax multiplier ≡ 8.Balanced-budget multiplier ≡ 1

33. 33 of 39 DERIVING THE FISCAL POLICY MULTIPLIERS A P P E N D I X A THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAX MULTIPLIERS

34. 34 of 39 DERIVING THE FISCAL POLICY MULTIPLIERS THE BALANCED-BUDGET MULTIPLIER The balanced-budget multiplier is found by combining the effects of government spending and taxes: increase in spending: - decrease in spending: = net increase in spending In a balanced-budget increase, ΔG = ΔT; so we can substitute: net initial increase in spending: ΔG − ΔG (MPC) = ΔG (1 − MPC) A P P E N D I X A

35. 35 of 39 DERIVING THE FISCAL POLICY MULTIPLIERS THE BALANCED-BUDGET MULTIPLIER A P P E N D I X A Because MPS = (1 − MPC), the net initial increase in spending is: ΔG (MPS) We can now apply the expenditure multiplier to this net initial increase in spending:

36. 36 of 39 THE CASE IN WHICH TAX REVENUES DEPEND ON INCOME A P P E N D I X B  FIGURE 9B.1 The Tax Function

37. 37 of 39 THE CASE IN WHICH TAX REVENUES DEPEND ON INCOME A P P E N D I X B When taxes are strictly lump-sum (T = 100) and do not depend on income, the aggregate expenditure function is steeper than when taxes depend on income.  FIGURE 9B.2 Different Tax Systems

38. 38 of 39 THE CASE IN WHICH TAX REVENUES DEPEND ON INCOME A P P E N D I X B THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAX MULTIPLIERS ALGEBRAICALLY