1. Deconstructing Elections The Dubious Role of Voting for Governments in Transition Discussion 2 Ben Shanbaum The Law of Nationbuilding – Fall 2006

2. Layout of Paper ► Part I: The role of elections in Democracy ► (Part II): How elections fall short for a government in transition ► (Part III): Analyzing the Third Wave through a critical lens ► Part IV: Proposing alternative benchmarks ► Part V: Preparing a complete perspective – and rethinking Iraq strategy?

3. PART FOUR: Considering “alternative” benchmarks for a country transitioning from dictatorship to democracy

4. Notice! ► Transition should be viewed as a mountain range … not a butte ► Multiple “peaks”

5. Alternative 1: Formation of a Constitution

6. Constitution + Lays framework for the rules of government + Possibly establishes individual rights and liberties + Tangible, relatively high-profile + Potentially carries as much symbolic weight as elections

7. Constitution - Western model (specifically, the American Constitution) is difficult to emulate - Who gets a seat at the table? - Legitimacy problems - Useless without institutions prepared to implement its provisions

8. Alternative 2: Reformation of Civil Society

9. Civil Society Civil society is “an organizational realm between state and family populated by organizations which are separate from the state, enjoy autonomy in relation to the state and are formed voluntarily by members of society to protect or extend their interests or values.” -Gordon White, “Civil Society, Democratization and Development (I): Clearing the Analytical Ground,” 1 Democratization 379 (Autumn 1994).

10. Civil Society/ State Institutions ► US policy:  Hold elections first – then reform civil society  State institutions (“top-down”) vs. grass-roots (“bottom-up”)  Focus on advocacy-based NGOs ► Civic education ► Media assistance ► Aid to labor unions  Presumably to aid “free and fair” elections  Little is done to reform executive power

11. Civil Society + Introduces concept of “being a citizen” + Promotes individual freedoms and liberties + Long-term benefits to stability + State institutions can “oversee” the new government and possibly intercede upon tyrannical actions

12. Civil Society - From within: is it realistic? - From someone else: is it legitimate? - Timing problems: avoiding the snowball - Media unfriendly: how much reformation is “enough”?

13. Last questions on civil society: Does one approach hold an advantage over another? Can both approaches be taken simultaneously?

14. Alternative 3: Formation of Meaningful Political Parties

15. “Meaningful”? ► Based on ideological grounds ► Purpose to carry out society’s “common interests”  How to determine common interests? ► How many?  More than one, less than many  Fewer in number = more moderate message ► Relatively equal in visibility, communicative ability

16. Weighing the Importance ► 1) Charismatic visionary individuals  Can move a country through transition quickly  Danger of “Benevolent President Syndrome” ► 2) Strong political parties  Produce slow but steady debate on the direction of the transition  Can they motivate a population to change? ► What’s best: #1, #2, or both?

17. Alternative 4: Elections … Not for the process, but for the results

18. Election Results ► Elections ARE important… ► But only to the extent that democracy will flourish as a result of them  No signs of tyranny exhibited by either side  Losing side is willing to lose gracefully  Public participation by all fronts ► Elections – better way to show successful consolidation?

19. Sneak Peek at Part V ► Elections matter MORE when they occur either concurrently with or after:  The framework for Democracy has been established.  Civil society has embraced “Liberal” qualities.  State institutions have been set up to oversee the transition.

20. DISCUSSION TIME!!!