1. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Explorations for a possible GECAFS research project in southern Africa Team members: Martin Muchero, Pauline Dube and Jaap Arntzen

2. GECAFS Research questions How might the projected climate change stresses further affect the food systems of Southern Africa; who and which place will be most vulnerable to these changes? What are the other key determinants of short and long-term food provision that needs to be addressed simultaneously with GEC? What measures can be put in place to minimise impacts of GEC and or take advantage of positive trends that may arise from these changes? What is likely to be the short and long-term feedback from measures adopted specifically to avert negative impacts or take advantage of changes in climate patterns?

3. Work programme Identify potential stakeholders and data sources; Solicit research needs from policy makers and scientists in southern Africa; Outline key research issues for potential GECAFS Southern Africa project

4. Methods used Interviews Literature review Review of statistics Review of info on GEC and southern Africa

5. Report structure Classification of food systems and trends in food provision Main socioeconomic and physical features of southern Africa Main regional policy and research initiatives Identification of research topics for three GECAFS themes

6. Food resources and provision Food provision is about ensuring that people take in sufficient variety of substances to maintain life and growth. Range of food resources, including cereals and other conventionally cultivated crops, vegetables, fruits and edible oils, Meat, milk and dairy products, fishery products; and other (non-conventional) products collected from the natural environment or cultivated.

7. Food systems Food production systems determined by: –Type of food produced –Method of production –Production strategy Classification: see table 1. Food availability determined by production, transport, distribution and storage capacity Food accessibility determined by availability and income generation, distribution and pricing.

8. Regional trends in food provision Declining p. c. food production Under-utilisation of agricultural land resources Small size of irrigated food production Declining p.c. food consumption Maize is most important cereal. Sorghum and millet confined to driest areas. Difference between comparative advantage for crops and actual crops grown Government support has stimulated maize production

9. Food trends continued Livestock production mostly in South Africa, Tanzania and countries such as Botswana and Namibia Sufficient grain storage capacity for regional production Transport and communication networks are poor

10. GEC and food production in southern Africa Changes in production potential of maize and certain trees. Negative and positive impacts on food production and provision (south --; north +) Lower rangeland productivity in southern parts A decrease in rangeland quality in southern Africa Changes in water cycle and availability in combination with growing water competition Growing poverty in affected areas, restricting adaptive capacity

11. Development-environment challenges Reducing poverty and hunger Accelerate economic and agricultural growth Increased access to drinking water and sanitation; Political and economic stability Regional integration and specialisation Improved natural resource management More productive use of natural resources Regional specialisation based on comparative natural advantages Water scarcity International-regional commitments

12. GECAFS challenge in southern Africa Southern Africa is unique for GECAFS as food insecurity is a growing problem in southern Africa, and for many countries within the region. Existing regional efforts on food provision are mostly short-term oriented, aiming to revive agricultural growth and development.

13. Research issues for theme 1 Integrating long-term GEC concerns and impacts in the short- term struggle to improve food provision Detailed assessment of GEC on the major food products and transport and distribution systems Establishing an inventory of traditional knowledge on past GEC and vulnerabilities experienced then Vulnerability assessment (areas, groups, products) Shifts in production belts of crops and animals Potential for new income-generating products Changes in water availability and requirements Identification of areas with enhanced and reduced food production potential and linking these systems

14. Research issues for theme 2 Identify and evaluate the possible adaptations mechanisms; Identify and learn from past and current coping mechanisms employed by vulnerable groups in their day-to-day food supply systems Analyse and strengthen the capability of communities and countries to adapt as much as possible Identify the most suitable level at which each adaptation should be carried out.

15. Research issues theme 2 continued Data generation and dissemination: –Monitoring and early warning systems (climate, local production, regional and global markets); –Focused information on adaptation options available including research on alternative crops or livestock species; –Vulnerability assessments (areas, groups); –Dissemination of information-data Wide range of agricultural and non-agricultural adaptations –.

16. Research issues theme 3 Possible environmental impacts of adaptations include: –Changes in biodiversity due to GMO and extending the agricultural frontier –Agricultural pollution associated with use of fertiliser and pesticides –Water logging and salination due to irrigation –Land degradation due to agricultural pressure and use of less suitable land –Increase water scarcity due to irrigation.

17. Research issues Theme 3 continued Development impacts include: –Extra costs of agricultural production due to GEC –Changes in consumer patterns and loss of economic access for those engaged in food production/processing –Extra costs of food imports –Mobilisation of international funds for mitigation/ adaptation measures –Future of food aid –Over-exploitation of resources –Intense competition for resources in favoured regions in response to developed intra-regional trade

18. Proposed GECAFS projects in southern Africa Three interlinked projects Project 1: in southwest/central part of southern Africa where production potential is adversely affected by GEC. –Research issues: GEC impact on food production and livelihoods; Adaptation mechanisms and their impacts Project 2: located in north-western parts with an enhanced production potential –Research issues: Expected positive impact on food production Shifts in crop and animal production belts

19. Proposed GECAFS projects in southern Africa The projects would be linked by transport, trade and policy issues, including regional integration and specialisation (project 3). Project 3: Regional agricultural trade –Location: region-wide (SADC) –Research issues: Regional transport and food distribution networks Regional food security and reserves Policies and governance Regional specialisation, integration and trade