1. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IMG_3758_view_north_from_French_King_Bridge.jpg The Connecticut River looking north in the early evening, from the French King Bridge at the Erving-Gill town line in Western Massachusetts. Presentation to the New York Water Science Center December 9, 2009 Stacey Archfield, Ph.D. Research Hydrologist, USGS MA-RI Water Science Center FUNDING SOURCES: Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Richard Vogel, Tufts University Peter Steeves and Sara Brandt, USGS Stephen Garabedian and Peter Weiskel, USGS

2. 2 of 20 The importance of daily streamflow information Photographs from: http://www.oceanriver.org/images/WestfieldRiverRussellMA_000.jpg; http://image.tutorvista.com/content/ecosystem/food-web-terrestrial-aquatic-ecosystem.jpeg, http://www.labsafety.com/Nalgene-Environmental-Sample-Bottles_24545938/, and http://jphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/ww2.jpg. USER-SPECIFIED TIME PERIOD STREAMFLOW Unimpacted streamflow Instream-flow targets Quantity of water available for withdrawal

3. 3 of 20 Project objectives  Develop an easy-to-use, screening-level, decision-support tool to estimate continuous unregulated and regulated daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts POINT-AND-CLICK GIS USER- INTERFACE COUPLED WITH COMMONLY-USED SPREADSHEET AND DATABASE SOFTWARE TECHNICALLY-DEFENSIBLE APPROACH REQUIRING FEW PARAMETERS USER CAN TEST WATER- MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS BY ADJUSTING THE PERIOD OF ANALYSIS AND CHANGING INPUT DATA

4. 4 of 20 The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool) Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow State-wide water-use database Flow-duration curve EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY STREAMFLOW TIME Flow series from index gage

5. 5 of 20 EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY STREAMFLOW Estimate flow-duration curve by solving the regression equations Solve regression equations that relate measurable basin characteristics to flow-duration-curve statistics TIME STREAMFLOW Convert the estimated flow-duration to a time series of streamflow by use of an index gage Area = XX.X mi 2 ln(Q50) = a 1 + b 1 * (ln(Area)) Estimate basin characteristics Estimate hydrograph Sources: Ries and Friesz (1999), Fennessey (1994), Hughes and Smakhtin (1994) Estimating unregulated daily streamflow

6. 6 of 20 Selection of an index gage using geostatistics Archfield, S.A. and Vogel, R.M., in review, The Map-Correlation Method, submitted to Water Resources Research Each point on the map is the Pearson’s r correlation between the natural logarithms of the streamflows at BURL and another gage. By kriging the correlations, we obtain a correlation map for southern New England, which can be used to determine the correlation between any stream location and the BURL gage. Natural log (Q AT BURL) Natural log (Q AT HUBB) EXAMPLE R 2 = 0.839

7. 7 of 20 Now suppose we want to select the gage most correlated with our ungaged site. Estimated R 2 between ungaged site and the BURL gage = 0.845 Estimated R 2 between ungaged site and the OLDS gage = 0.793 Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the GREC gage = 0.882 We can create a correlation map for each of the potential index gages in our study area. We can obtain kriged estimates of correlation between our ungaged site and each of the index-streamflow gages in the study area. R 2 = 0.845 R 2 = 0.793 R 2 = 0.882 Selection of an index-streamflow gage -- continued We will use the GREC gage to transform the flow-duration curve to a time series of flows.

8. 8 of 20 The MA SYE tool estimates daily mean streamflows from October 1, 1960 through September 30, 2004. Streamflow gages used in the analysis Each site was jack-knifed to compare estimated and observed streamflows. Best Worst There are 66 gages identified as least-altered in southern New England. Most sites have no major water withdrawals, discharges or return flows in the basin and the predominant land cover is forest.

9. 9 of 20 Observed and estimated streamflow From Archfield and others (2009)

10. 10 of 20 Observed and estimated streamflow (best and worst) Burlington Brook near Burlington, CT (Worst case) Hubbard River near West Hartland, CT (Best case) STREAMFLOW, IN CFS

11. 11 of 20 The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool) Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow State-wide water-use database Flow-duration curve EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY STREAMFLOW TIME Flow series from index gage

12. 12 of 20 Source for STRMDEPL: Zarriello, P.J. and Barlow, P.M. (2000) and Jenkins, C.T. (1968)  If aquifer properties are known, the user has the option to apply the program STRMDEPL, an analytical solution that is used to include the time-varying effects of a ground-water withdrawal or discharge on streamflow Regulated streamflow t = Unregulated streamflow t  (Ground-water discharges t )  (Return flows t ) –  (Surface-water withdrawals t ) –  (Ground-water withdrawals t ) Estimating regulated streamflow WELL 1 WELL 2 WWTP 1 Ungaged location

13. 13 of 20 Limitations  Regulated streamflow estimates are limited by the availability and quality of the water-use data Water-use type Number of points in state-wide water-use database Time resolution of reported dataSpatial resolution of reported data Public-water-supply withdrawal2360Annual dataSource-level water-use information Public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day1420Annual dataSource-level water-use information Non-public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day1743Annual dataSystem-level water-use information Ground-water discharge greater than 15,000 gallons per day204Monthly dataSource-level water-use information National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) discharge854Monthly dataSource-level water-use information  Estimates of regulated streamflow do not include other factors that have an effect on streamflow: land-use change, surface-water reservoirs, storm-water returns, and septic discharge  Method requires coincident ground- and surface-water divides - Existing ground-water-flow models are used to compute streamflow at fixed stream locations where divides are not coincident From Archfield and others (2009)

14. 14 of 20 The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (Decision-support tool) Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow State-wide water-use database Flow-duration curve EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY STREAMFLOW TIME Flow series from index gage

15. 15 of 20 Point-and-click GIS user-interface Users begin by opening an ESRI ArcMap document and locating the stream of interest. Users also have the option to export a map and shapefile of the study area. The user clicks on the stream location to delineate an on-the-fly watershed, compute basin characteristics, and query the water-use database for points within the watershed.

16. 16 of 20 Navigating the tool A master Microsoft Excel file guides the user through the post-processing, graphing and reporting of the results. All relevant data is stored in a user-specified location and project folder.

17. 17 of 20 Scenario testing: Instream-flow targets, period of analysis Estimated streamflows can also be compared to monthly instream-flow targets. %xx

18. 18 of 20 Results Results are summarized for the user in a printable 2-page format.

19. 19 of 20 Application: Mapping streamflow alteration and water availability Estimated annual flow alterationEstimated August flow alteration Weiskel, P.K., Brandt, S.L., DeSimone, L.A., Ostiguy, L.J., and Archfield, S.A., 2010, Indicators of streamflow alteration, habitat fragmentation, impervious cover, and water quality for Massachusetts stream basins, USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2009-5272

20. 20 of 20 Application: Relating streamflow alteration to fish data Project contact for “Fish, Flow & Habitat”: Todd Richards, MDFW; Peter Weiskel, USGS Percent fluvial specialists Percent net flow alteration (August) for nested basins DRAFT < 15 % > 15 % Fish-sampling locations Streamflow alteration Imperviousness In cooperation with:

21. 21 of 20 Contact Information Stacey Archfield Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC US Geological Survey sarch@usgs.gov (508) 490-5072 Peter Weiskel Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC US Geological Survey pweiskel@usgs.gov (508) 490-5026