1. Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 Willy Morrell UNDP Samoa Multi Country Office – serving Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue

2. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 1 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 1 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Al Gore and R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC Science reaches out to public

3. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 2 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 2 Note: Without natural greenhouse effect mean temperature would be around -18ºC

4. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 3 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 3 Carbon Dioxide per year (7,500,000 Cruise Liners) 1000w Air-Conditioner 10 hours per day  5 kg carbon dioxide 27,246,000,000,005 kg

5. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 4 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 4 Source: IPCC (2007)

6. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 5 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 5

7. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 6 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 6 Rising Temperatures 1.5º 6º6º Changes in: - Rainfall - Soil evaporation - Physical geography, landscapes - Sea level - Extreme weather - Ecosystem distribution/composition

8. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 7 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 7 “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising of the global mean sea level.” (IPCC, 2007) The concern is that the climate is changing too rapidly for natural ecosystem and human adaptation.

9. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 8 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 8 Time Climatic variations

10. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 9 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 9 1.Air temps  1.0 - 4.17ºC in the N. Pacific 2.Air temps  up 0.99 - 3.11ºC in the S. Pacific 3.Sea temps up  1.0 - 3.0ºC 4.Ocean pH  by 0.3 - 0.4 units 5.Sea-level rise  of 0.19 - 0.58 m 6.Rainfall -2.7% to +25.8% in the N. Pacific 7.Rainfall -14% to +14.6% in the S. Pacific 8.Possible increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events including cyclones Predicted regional changes by 2100

11. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 10 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 10 Latest 2009 findings  The Earth is presently tracking towards worst-case impact scenarios outlined in the 2007 IPCC 4AR  The is growing evidence to suggest that these scenarios may be overly conservative  If present greenhouse gas emission trends continue the Pacific region could experience mean sea-level increases of 1m or more  We are locked into some degree of climate change regardless what the industrialized nations do now! - Copenhagen Climate Change Council, April 2009 -

12. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 11 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 11 Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts Global Climate Change Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation are complementary risk management strategies The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) frames obligations for each country to implement both strategies MITIGATION ADAPTATION Reduce magnitude of global warming Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts Reduce human and material losses

13. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 12 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 12 Climate Change impacts Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs PUBLIC HEALTH AGRICULTURE Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations FORESTRY Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productivity WATER RESOURCES Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources COASTAL SYSTEMS Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems, migratory shifts

14. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 13 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 13 SCOPING STUDY  Given PIC vulnerability we must primarily focus on adaptation  Strong call from PICs for less consultation and more delivery of ‘concrete’ adaptation measures at the community level to provide case-studies and lessons learnt  A call to focus on adaptation measures that provide short-term development outcomes and build long term resilience (e.g. food security and DRM)

15. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 14 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 14 CONTINUED… Also need to continue focus on mitigation measures that provide ‘win-win’ outcomes  Short term poverty reduction  Longer term resilience to climate change  Reduced GHG emissions e.g. renewable energy, sustainable transport, mangrove planting etc

16. UNDP Environment and Energy Group 15 Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009 15 Fa’afetai lava