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Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton.

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Presentation on theme: "Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton."— Presentation transcript:

1 Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton 2 and J.C. Field 3 1 School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2 AFSC, NMFS, NOAA, Seattle, WA 3 Santa Cruz Laboratory, NMFS, NOAA, Santa Cruz, CA

2 Wash. Oregon California Northern California Current Ecosystem (NCCE)

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6 1960 2000

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13 82.4 BIOMASS REVENUE Baseline: year 2000

14 how do ecology and economy respond to… 1.different CLIMATE 2.additional FISHING effort 3.CLIMATE & FISHING *all scenarios for year 2000 and year 1960 systems* SCENARIOS

15 SCENARIO 1: Climate

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17 …to 2100 Average 1960-2000 SCENARIO 1: Climate

18 …to 2100 Average 1963-76 SCENARIO 1: Climate

19 …to 2100 Average 1977-98 SCENARIO 1: Climate

20 BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

21 BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

22 BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

23 BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

24 Compared to year 1960 system? SCENARIO 1: Climate

25 BIOMASS REVENUE SCENARIO 1: Climate

26 2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate

27 2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate

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29 SCENARIO 2: Fishing

30 Are we measuring RESILIENCE? from Walker et al. 04 SCENARIO 2: Fishing

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36 SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

37 REVENUE 63-76 CLIMATE 77-98 CLIMATE

38 SUMMARY thanks to: WA Sea Grant, IPDES, SAFS

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