1. Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan Dr. Arshad M. Khan Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, 15 February 2008

2. 2 Rate of Change ( o C per decade) 1850 – 2005─────────────0.045 1905 – 2005─────────────0.074 1955 – 2005─────────────0.128 1980 – 2005─────────────0.177 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999 Average Global Temperature O C 1999─────────────14.38 2000 1995 ───────────── 14.40 14.48. 1998 2007 2005 ───────────── 14.57 14.60 14.63

3. 3 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century; Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21 st Century; Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions; Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably; Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic; Substantial rise in sea level. Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

4. 4 Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan  Increased variability of Monsoon;  Increased risks of floods and droughts;  Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region;  Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity; 060212/0018

5. 5 Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.)  More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers;  Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline;  Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish; 060212/0020

6. 6  Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate sensitive;  Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers;  Low technological and scientific base and limited access to knowledge;  Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources to undertake appropriate adaptation measures. Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change

7. 7 Research Needs of Pakistan  Proper understanding of the past trends of: i.Region-wise Climate Change ii.Changes in flow patterns of IRS iii.Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events iv.Recession of Karakoram Glaciers v.Degradation of the Indus delta region  Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends  Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture  Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts

8. 8 Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview  1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy”,  1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues;  1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)”  1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for Pakistan”;  Mid-1990s onwards: Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir Muhammed

9. 9 Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview (contd.)  2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established;  2003: Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC by MoEnv., GoP;  2004: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat;  2005: PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan Himalayas;  2007: Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on Climate Change research results by GCISC.

10. 10 GCISC Activities at a Glance Agricultural Data Identification of adaptation measures in agriculture sector Identification of adaptation measures in water sector Dissemination of Project Outcomes Water Simulation Models Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Water Resources Data Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Agriculture Regional Climate Models Crop Simulation Models Climate Change Scenario Development Climate Data Capacity Building/Research Analysis of Enhancement and Dissemination Historical Data

11. 11 Anthropogenic Influences Internal driving forces External driving forces Global Climate Scenarios Regional Climate Models (RCMs ) Regional Climate Scenarios Effects on Crop Yields Crop-growth Simulation Models Mesoscale Climate Models (MMs) Watershed Models Effect on River inflows Impact Studies Information at 300 km x 300 km level Information at 30 km x 30 km level Information at Sub-km level Adaptation Measures Health Energy Biodiversity Area of GCISC Activities at Present Future Activities Agriculture Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Super Computer Land use & Topographic data etc. GCISC Approach for CC Research

12. 12 Simulation Models Currently in Use at GCISC Regional Climate Models : RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy) PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK) WRF (NCAR, USA) Watershed Models : DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA) UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada) HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers) Crop Simulation Models : DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models: CERES (for cereals) CROPGRO (for grain legumes) CROPSIM (for root crops) Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)

13. 13 Salient Research Results Obtained by GCISC

14. 14 Climate Change Projections a)Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2 and A1B scenarios b)Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS Base period:1961 – 1990 Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039 2050s = 2040 – 2069 2080s = 2070 – 2099

15. 15 Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts a) Pakistan b) Northern Pakistan b) Southern Pakistan (a) (b)(c)

16. 16 Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs (Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100) For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble of 17 GCMs (Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100)

17. 17 Pakistan Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan Annual 4.38 ± 0.444.67 ± 0.234.22 ± 0.18 Summer 4.13 ± 0.264.56 ± 0.283.90 ± 0.26 Winter 4.47 ± 0.204.72 ± 0.244.33 ± 0.18 Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer

18. 18 Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario) Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)

19. 19 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

20. 20 Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate Change Impact Studies on Agriculture

21. 21 Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan Temperature ˚C (increase over baseline) Growing Season Length (Days) Northern PakistanSouthern Pakistan Mountainous Region (Humid) Sub-Mountainous Region (Sub-humid) Plains (Semi- arid) Plains (Arid) Baseline246161146137 1232155140132 2221149135127 3211144130123 4202138125118 5194133121113

22. 22 Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant)

23. 23 Effect of increase in CO 2 concentration on wheat yield (other factors remaining constant)

24. 24 Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios

25. 25 Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios Region % Share in National Production Baseline Yield (kg ha -1 ) % Change in yield in 2085 A2 Scenario B2 Scenario Northern Mountainous 22658+50+40 Northern Sub- mountainous 93933-11 Southern Semi arid Plains 424306-8 Southern Arid Plains 474490-5-6 Pakistan 1004326-5.7-6.4

26. 26 Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 1990202520552085 Year Rice yield (kg/ha) A2 Scenarios B2 Scenario

27. 27 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of Pakistan

28. 28 UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila R 2 Eff. % Vol. Diff. Calibration (1999-2004) 0.87 0.86 0.32 Validation (1995-1999) 0.87 0.87 -5.16 Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150)

29. 29 Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):  Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50% Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

30. Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC  GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre, University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using satellite imageries.  An MoU has been signed.  GCISC plan to use the above experience to study expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers, using time series satellite data.

31. 31 Major Collaborating National Organizations 1.Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD 2.Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA 3.Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC 4.Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST 5.University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF 6.University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR

32. 32 Major Collaborating International Partners APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan; ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy; IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA; GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK.

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