1. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics In the Lesson 1 of this Module weather forecasting is explained briefly. The second Lesson in this Module is about ways to predict drought occurrence.

2. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought After completing this Lesson you have learned to answer: 1.What is weather forecasting? 2.How weather is predicted? 3.How reliable is this weather forecasting? 4.What is the time span for forecasting different weather elements? 5.What types of weather forecasting exists? 6.What is 24 to 48 hours forecast for agricultural operations? Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting ?

3. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought After completing this Lesson, you have learned to answer: 6.What is 5-days forecast for agricultural operations? 7.What is 30-days forecast for agricultural operations? 8.How can we get information about weather forecasting? 9.What simple techniques for predicting weather are available? Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting ?

4. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Weather forecasting is a prediction of what the weather will be like in an hour, tomorrow, next week or during a season. Weather forecasts, such as: "Look for cloudy skies with afternoon thunderstorms and a high of 38 0 C" provide critical information about the weather to come. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

5. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How weather is predicted? Weather forecasters collect data on atmospheric conditions, including temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, and its direction etc. High-speed computers, meteorological satellites, and weather radars are tools used to collect the weather data. Such data are fed into the sophisticated computers to interpret the weather conditions. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

6. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How weather is predicted? Weather forecasting is a very important activity of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD provides very comprehensive forecasting services for different users. IMD has forecasting offices at its 6 Regional Meteorological Centers and Meteorological Centers at the State capitals. In addition it has two major forecasting centers at New Delhi and Pune. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

7. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How weather is predicted? Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains a countrywide network of observational stations from where weather reports are received at Pune through the Regional Telecommunication Hub based at New Delhi. With the help of these reports and other observations from the globe, the Pune office issues the All India Daily Weather Bulletin and Weather Forecasts for the entire country. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

8. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How reliable is this weather forecasting? Atmospheric conditions change rapidly. Hence, even with sophisticated computer models, satellite images, and monitoring stations across most of the planet, forecasts can be not exact. That is, sometimes the weather is more predictable than at other times. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

9. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How reliable is this weather forecasting? Weather forecasts are usually: Fairly accurate for the coming 1 to 2 days; Accuracy of weather forecasts decreases as the lead-time increases to 3, 4, or 5 or more days; A forecast for 4 days often needs to be revised as that day approaches, and in some cases the revision may be large. At lead-times of 5 to 7 days there is only a small amount of accuracy in weather forecasts. Over 7 days there is nearly none. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

10. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought What is the time span for forecasting different weather elements? Weather elementForecast Heavy rainfall, Thunderstorms24 hours in advance Wind velocity, Rainfall amount36 hours in advance Occurrence of rainfall, Temperature intensity5 days in advance Temperature departure, Rainfall departure3 months in advance Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

11. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought What types of weather forecasting exists? Weather forecasts for can be grouped into:  Short range forecastup to 48 hours  Extended forecastup to 5 days  Long range forecast30 days to the season Each type of forecasting has a role to play in farm operations and planning of agricultural activities. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

12. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Where can I get the information on weather forecasting? Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) provides the information on many features of weather for many places in India. You can get weather information from the following IMD web site: http://www.imd.ernet.in/main_new.htm Click on the above web site and find out the details of available weather information. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

13. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting? Where can I get the information on weather forecasting? There are other Internet sites which can provide the weather forecasting for cities and town in many countries. For example, the following site provides weather forecasting for many countries even on hourly basis: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/world-city- list2.asp?country=IN&region=ASI&partner=accuweather& go.x=18&go.y=11http://wwwa.accuweather.com/world-city- list2.asp?country=IN&region=ASI&partner=accuweather& go.x=18&go.y=11 Click on the above web site and find out the details of weather information in many towns and cities in India.

14. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Where can I get the information on weather forecasting? In addition to the weather information from IMD, local and national news papers, All India Radio Stations, and many Television Channels provide information about weather from time to time. Additionally, we can get weather related information from many Internet web sites. http://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/INXX0102.htmlhttp://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/INXX0102.html (for world over weather forecast) http://weather.nic.in/current.htm (for weather forecast in India)http://weather.nic.in/current.htm Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

15. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Where can I get the information on weather forecasting? http://imdagrimet.org/http://imdagrimet.org/ (weather services to farmers as bulletins, state-wise information for India) http://intraagri.mah.nic.in/rain/distdailyrain.asphttp://intraagri.mah.nic.in/rain/distdailyrain.asp (District- wise weather data for Maharashtra state) http://agri.mah.nic.in/agri/stat/HtmlArea/raindata_main. htmlhttp://agri.mah.nic.in/agri/stat/HtmlArea/raindata_main. html (Searchable weather data for Maharashtra state) http://dmc.kar.nic.in/monthly.htmhttp://dmc.kar.nic.in/monthly.htm (drought monitoring cell in Karnataka) Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

16. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought What is Farmers’ Weather Bulletin? Farmers’ Weather Bulletins (FWB) are issued for broadcast in different regional languages through All India Radio stations in the evening programs. A second bulletin is issued for broadcast in the morning during the rainy season. The bulletins are also published in newspapers. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

17. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought What information Farmers’ Weather Bulletin contain? A summary of past weather, District forecast of weather during the next 48 hours Special weather warnings for cyclonic storms, etc., An outlook for the subsequent two days on the onset of rains, probable rainfall – intensity and duration, weak or a break in monsoon conditions, occurrence of frost, hail, squalls, and other conditions. Warnings of conditions such as heavy rainfall and low temperature that are injurious to plants. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

18. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought What information Farmers’ Weather Bulletin contain? A summary of past weather, District forecast of weather during the next 48 hours Special weather warnings for cyclonic storms, etc., An outlook for the subsequent two days on the onset of rains, probable rainfall – intensity and duration, weak or a break in monsoon conditions, occurrence of frost, hail, squalls, and other conditions. Warnings of conditions such as heavy rainfall and low temperature that are injurious to plants. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

19. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Are there any simple techniques for predicting weather?  Previously when there was not much of technology developed for weather forecasting, farmers based their prediction on many natural, cultural and social phenomena.  Some of these techniques are discussed in this Lesson. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

20. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Are there any simple techniques for predicting weather?  Yes. You can observe weather using your senses:  Sight,  Touch,  Hearing, and  Smell. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

21. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought How sight is used for predicting weather?  Sight is the easiest sense to use when you forecast. You use sight when you watch clouds to forecast the weather. Go outside and look up at the clouds. Clouds can tell you many things about what the weather will do. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

22. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Sight:  Thin and wispy clouds found very high in the sky point the direction the wind is blowing.  No precipitation falls from such clouds. They are a sign of fair weather for now and the very near future. Fair weather clouds Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

23. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Sight:  Clouds, which are like fuzzy bubbles in long rows or strings usually, mean that a cold front is coming.  If it is summertime, warm and humid these clouds may turn into thunderstorms. Possible rain- clouds Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

24. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Sight:  Dark and low- hanging clouds covering the whole sky bring light to moderate rainfall. Rain giving clouds Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

25. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Sight:  Clouds looking like big cotton balls in the sky with very large spaces of clear sky in between them normally do not carry any rain.  But, during summer these clouds can change into thunderstorm clouds. May rain clouds Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

26. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Sight:  Tall and wide clouds have heavy rain, thunder and lightning.  If you see these clouds on the horizon, it is likely it will rain very soon. Heavy rain clouds Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

27. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Touch is another sense that can be used when forecasting temperature and rainfall. For example:  You can feel the sun hitting your face which indicates the air temperature is high. You can feel your face get colder when it is raining in the nearby area. Combining with cloud watching you can forecast how soon you can expect rain in your area.  You use touch when you use the wind to forecast the weather, like in wind forecasting. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

28. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Touch Forecasting the temperature sensing the wind is simple. But it only works if the wind is strong enough to feel it. A very light breeze won't tell you much about the temperature. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

29. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Touch First, know which direction is north from where you are standing. When you find north, turn and face that direction. The direction behind you will be south.  If the wind is coming from the south, usually it means that warmer weather is on its way soon.  If the wind is from the north, usually it means that cooler and dryer weather is on the way.  East or west moving winds can mean a variety of things, which makes it difficult to forecast using them. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

30. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Hearing Hearing is useful for forecasting the weather.  When you hear thunder, you know that a storm is nearby, even if you didn't see the lightning.  You can hear the wind blow harder or softer through trees or as it whips around your ears. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

31. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Are there any other simple techniques for predicting weather? Based on certain natural phenomena farmers used to predict weather.  If the spectrum around the sun had a greater diameter than that around the moon, they predicted rainfall after a day or two.  If there is an accumulation of clouds in the South-east direction in a layered form accompanied by winds blowing from the southern direction then it is claimed that there will be rainfall within a day or two. Lesson 1: What is weather forecasting?

32. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought This concludes Lesson 1: What is weather Forecasting - in this Module. If you would like to check your understanding about weather forecasting, click “Exercise” button. In the next lesson i.e. Lesson 2, prediction of drought is very briefly explained. Click “Lessons” button to select Lesson 2 Exercise Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought Monitoring Drought Lessons