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MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION

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Presentation on theme: "MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION"— Presentation transcript:

1 MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION Monterey, California

2 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
Overview (Ted Tsui) Data Assimilation (Jim Goerss) Modeling (Jim Doyle) On Scene (John Cook) Satellite Applications (Jeff Hawkins)

3 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is the Department of the Navy’s corporate laboratory; it is under the Chief of Naval Research and receives base funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR). Meteorology and oceanography were integrated into NRL in 1992 with the merger of smaller laboratories in Monterey and Mississippi into the much larger NRL in Washington DC. SECRETARY OF THE NAVY NRL was suggested by Thomas Edison and commissioned by Congress in NRL has a long history of conducting pioneering research and advancing technology directed toward maritime applications. Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development, Acquisition) CHIEF OF NAVAL RESEARCH / ONR NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY 3300 people

4 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
Six Divisions performing scientific and technological research and development from the bottom of the sea floor to the top of the atmosphere. Space Sciences Remote Sensing Marine Meteorology Oceanography Acoustics Marine Geosciences

5 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION
Our Division’s Mission To understand and simulate the behavior of the atmosphere on local, regional, and global scales, including its interaction with the ocean, land and cryosphere… To apply that knowledge to the development and implementation of objective analysis and prediction systems and automated weather interpretation systems for Navy/DoD users … To study the effect of atmospheric conditions on Navy weapons systems and provide meteorological data support for input to tactical decision aids… …Meeting identified and anticipated Navy needs.

6 Marine Meteorology Division Research Staff
Government Research Staff 2/3 Ph.D., 1/3 M.S. 50 Meteorologists 6 Physicists 2 Physical Scientists 1 Mathematician 3 Computer Scientists 2 Oceanographers (one 7300) 2 Military METOC 900+ yrs experience in NWP! 200+ yrs in Remote Sensing! Visiting Research Staff On-Site Contractor Staff 4 Postdoctoral Fellows, Long-term Visiting Scientists 6 IT Support Professionals Computer Scientists Met/Ocean/Physics Scientists Total Staff On-Site at Any One Time

7 Local Environmental Characterization Requires a Telescoping Strategy
Observations BC, IC NOGAPS/NAAPS Global coverage Meso- to synoptic scale 1–5d guidance (-10d ensmbl) COAMPS™/”COAAMPS” Nested regional coverage Nonhydrostatic scale 0-72h forecaster guidance Down-scale Nesting 4D Cube TDAs Target On-Scene Obs Radar Satellite Local Model Output Through The Sensor COAMPS-OS™ On-scene Data Assimilation system Tactical scale/local coverage 1-12h data assimilation cycle Anytime, anywhere On-Scene Obs COAMPS™ and COAMPS-OS™ are trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory. NOWCAST Real-time, automatic, data fusion Warfighter time & space requirements (0-6h, rapid update) Common situational awareness Data Fusion AI Nowcast 4D Cube TDAs Target

8 NRL 7500 CORE SYSTEMS NAVDAS NOGAPS To Ops COAMPS® NAAPS On-Scene
Transition mission-relevant products for the warfighter To Ops NOGAPS NAAPS NAVDAS COAMPS® On-Scene Satellite Develop Core Systems Applied Res TAWS ATCF TDAs Increase understanding of atmospheric phenomena Basic Res

9 Marine Meteorology Division National Collaborations (1999-2003)
Universities Brown University University of California San Diego/ Scripps University of California LA N. Carolina State University Colorado State University Florida State University University of Hawaii University of Massachusetts Mississippi State University University of S. Mississippi Naval Postgraduate School University of Nevada/DRI University of New Mexico State University of New York, Stonybrook University of Oklahoma Oregon State University Pennsylvania State University Rutgers University University of Washington University of Wisconsin Yale University National Interagency Programs USWRP - US Weather Research Program WRF – Weather and Research Forecast model JCSDA – Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Laboratories Federally Funded R&D Centers NCAR, JPL, Lincoln Lab, Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, Argonne NOAA Environmental Laboratories AL, AOML, ETL, FSL, GFDL, NSSL, PMEL NASA Goddard, NASA AMES Air Force Research Laboratory Army Research Laboratory Army Topographic Engineering Center Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab SPAWAR Systems Center National Field Experiments ADAM – Asian Dust Above Monterey (2003) SWADE - Surface Wave Dynamic Experiment CBLAST - Coupled Boundary Layer/Air-Sea Transfer DYCOMS II – Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus Phase II WALLOPS Wallops Island Propagation Experiment KWAJEX – Kwajalein Experiment CALJET - California Landfalling Jets Experiment CAMEX - Convection and Moisture Experiment PACJET - Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment COSAT - COAMPS Operational Satellite and Aircraft Test VOCAR - Variability of Coastal Atmospheric Refractivity Experiment FBE-I, FBE-J, FBE-K – Fleet Battle Experiments India, Juliet, and Kilo Other DOD Naval Warfare Development Command Naval War College Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Naval Air Warfare Center, Pt. Mugu Naval Strike Warfare Center, Fallon Naval Professional Development Center Air Force Technical Applications Center U.S. Strategic Command USAF Weapons School Air Combat Command Other Agencies Federal Aviation Administration Flight Safety Foundation NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service San Diego Supercomputer Center National Imagery and Mapping Center Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Defense Threat Reduction Agency Central Intelligence Agency Operational Weather Centers FNMOC, NAVO, Naval Regional Centers JTWC; NOAA CPHC & TPC AFWA; AFCCC NCEP (EMC, CPC, AWC) NWS Forecast Offices (various)

10 Marine Meteorology Division International Collaborations (1999-2003)
Laboratories Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy) Instituto de Fisica dell “Atmosfera’ (Italy) Johannes Gutenberg Institut (Germany) Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, (Australia) Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (France) Center for Geologic Data Studies (Russia) Institue of Oceanology, Polska Akademia Nauk (Poland) Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (Poland) National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan) National Environmental Research Institute (Denmark) Universities University of W. Australia University of Bremen University of L’Aquila University of Leeds Universidad Polytecnica de Madrid University of Lisbon University of Manchester University of Munich University of Paris VI University of Reading University of Quebec at Montreal University of Rome “La Sapienza” Seoul National University Stockholm University University of Stuttgart National Taiwan University University of Warsaw Yonsei University Other Agencies Environment Canada Ministry of Defence, UK National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark TNO Defence Research, Netherlands EUMETSAT EURAINSAT DLR – German Aerospace Center World Meteorological Organization Thales Inc., UK Eva Airways Corp., Taiwan International Field Programs FASTEX -- Fronts and Atlantic Storms Experiment (1997) LABSEA -- Labrador Sea Experiment (1997) NORPEX -- North Pacific Experiment (1998) MAP -- Mesoscale Alpine Experiment (1999) ACE-ASIA – Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (2001) ITCT-2K2 –Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation Experiment (2002) THORPEX -- The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment ( ) DOTSTAR – Typhoon surveillance dropsonde missions (2004-) Operational Weather Centers European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts United Kingdom Meteorological Office Meteorological Service of Canada Meteo-France Taiwan Central Weather Bureau The Netherlands Weather Service (KNMI) Korean Meteorological Agency Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Centers Japan, Spain, Bahrain

11 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY Selected Research Highlights
Marine Meteorology Division Selected Research Highlights

12 NOGAPS Transitions Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Floyd Sortie Cost: $7.7 Million Total Cost to CINCLANTFLT due to Floyd: $17.2 Million Dennis Sortie Cost Avoided: $6.2 Million Irene Sortie Cost Avoided: $7.4 Million The decision to sortie ships and airplanes must be made 3-5 days in advance, which requires use of a global model (mesoscale forecasts are for <72 hrs). New requirements (MET 03-06) want tropical cyclone forecasting skill extended out to 144 hours. 1999 SORTIES: 18 ports, 83 ships, 1127 planes DIVERSIONS: 169 ships 1999 Atlantic Fleet 2002 Atlantic Fleet SORTIES: 4 ports, 12 units DIVERSIONS: 34 ships NOGAPS TC Forecast Track Error (nm) Western North Pacific (3-yr Weighted Mean) Distance in nm 48-hr 72-hr NOGAPS was “world’s best” for 2002 Atlantic TC season!

13 Marine Meteorology Division
Investments for the Future – SkyHigh NOGAPS Extended effective time range of weather prediction skill. Improved exploitation of satellite data (radiance assimilation, in-orbit sensor calibrations, analysis of ozone variability). Better support for consequence assessment, defense against weapons of mass destruction, theater ballistic missile defense support, re-entry orbital prediction, reconnaissance, and non-proliferation monitoring.

14 NOGAPS-Next Generation Spectral Element Grid
New Dynamic Core Icosahedral Hexahedral Telescoping Improved efficiency on massively parallel computers Potential for unified global/mesoscale model No “pole” problem Has interest from other NWP centers In spectral element methods the high-order polynomials are constructed inside an element which are the basic building-blocks of the discretization. One can pick these to be quadrilaterals or triangles. Quad-based SE have been used throughout CFD and one can use them quite effectively for computations but constructing completely unstructured or adaptive grids with Quads is difficult. Ocean models that use Quad-based SE construct the grid tediously by hand. Tri-based SE can take full advantage of the volume of mesh generation packages for triangles. This is the interest in exploring these methods.However, the methods being explored in this work are completely new methods that are not being explore anywhere else. Thus much research still is required but the benefits are significant. Icosahedral Thin Adaptive

15 High Resolution COAMPS® Potential Cost Savings from Improved Aviation Weather
High-resolution forecasts of weather parameters, dust, and other aerosols from COAAMPS can help improve these statistics in the future. Turbulence calculated from COAMPS TKE (inside black areas) verified by United Airlines encounter of CAT at 9km Weather related flight mishaps accounted for 95 deaths and $663 million in damage during FY90-98. 56% of weather-related mishaps were believed preventable if a perfect forecast was used. UA CAT Encounter At ~9 km COAMPS Dx=333 m Data provided by LCDR Cantu, NPS, 2001 W E

16 Impact of COAMPS® Urban Parameterization Passive Tracer 16-h Forecast
Release: Site #6--DOE Building: Height: 2-m Urban 16-h forecast valid 04 UTC 14 July m dosage (color) 2-m winds (arrows) Gray area = urban 5 ms-1 B Control A Smaller footprint of high 2-m dosage for Urban due to decrease in low-level stability, increase in turbulent mixing, and decrease in wind speed Brunt-Vaisala Freq red=stable yellow=neutral blue=unstable Winds (streamlines) Concentration (blue contour) A B Height (m) 400 200 300 100 500 urban Rock Creek Park Potomac

17 Marine Meteorology Division Coupled Air/Ocean Models
Animation by Rich Signell, NATO Undersea Research Centre

18 Marine Meteorology Division
COAMPS® Aerosol Model SeaWiFS BHR valid 0740 UTC 10 Oct 2001 Afghanistan dust source grid fraction--9km grid Navy-unique Capability NRL high-resolution dust source database supports the COAMPS™ embedded aerosol prediction capability. Dust optical depth, 9km grid hr forecast valid 06Z 10 Oct 2001 Dust eminating from source regions Dust patterns affected by terrain and wind conditions COAMPS surface winds, 9km grid 6hr forecast valid 06z 10 Oct 2001 Strong Northerly Winds COAMPS™ is a trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

19 Multi-scale Aerosol Prediction
48hr Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth “World First” GLOBAL NAAPS REGIONAL COAMPS

20 Satellite Applications New Sensors, New Algorithms
AFWA Dust Product NRL Dust Products Detecting dust in black/white imagery often requires the skills of a seasoned analyst. NRL has developed algorithms for dust enhancement using new sensor suites that allowed easy-to-interpret products to be automatically generated.

21 Aerosol Effects on Visibility Not Just a SW Asia Problem
COAMPS Forecast Dust Plume Dust Plume Gobi Desert Dust Storms Plague East Asia NRL Modeling and Field Programs (Asian Dust Above Monterey) have studied the characteristics of this dust as it crosses the Pacific Ocean to the west coast of the U.S. Korea, Japan Mar 2002 Korea, Japan Apr 2002 Aerosols have potential to impact a wide range of Navy activities, with occasional catastrophic consequences. Tactical planning and execution Iranian hostage rescue mission failed partly due to aerosols. Heavy amounts can cause engine failure (volcanic, dust). Weapon selection determined by expected visibility and weather. Many missions in Desert Storm were aborted due to aerosols. Defense Ship defense in coastal waters. Navy concern is whether they can detect incoming weapons. Surf-generated aerosol obscures hostile attacks. Aerosol locally generated (sulfur chemistry, sea salt) as well as transported from distant sources. Strategic planning/Counter-proliferation Important to minimize collateral damage from strategic and counter-proliferation activities Weather prediction Weather modified by the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Radiative heating modifies mass and momentum fields. SST retrievals degraded by presence of aerosols. Aerosols modify cloud microphysics and optical properties.

22 Satellite Applications Products from New Sensors
Snow High Clouds Low Clouds vs. Aircraft Contrails Smoke Plume Yemen Oil Tanker Attack: 10/06/02 Tanker Examples: Upper left—MODIS contrail enhancement showing multiple trails entering Arabian Gulf Lower left—MODIS low cloud at night, green == bright surface mask. Note some low clouds detectable upon mask Upper right—MODIS dust enhancement. Note: left of yellow line == glint zone Lower right—MODIS deep convection with example of CloudSat/CALIPSO validation points Only deepest convective elements are analyzed Cloud Top Altitudes in Kilofeet Low Clouds at Night Dry Lake Beds Dust

23 Benefits of Collocation
NRL / FNMOC / NPS Joint Planning Shared Computational & Data Resources Educational Opportunities for Staff Shared Operational Testbeds Academic Support from Staff Research Joint Transition Teams Rapid Response; Troubleshooting Education Operations Exposure of students to broader activities Joint Projects that Leverage Local Expertise Rapid Transition of R&D

24 NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
Marine Meteorology Division Ted Tsui


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