1. 1 V.RAMAKRISHNA MEMBER (POWER SYSTEMS) CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY GROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRY AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE by 28 th APRIL, 2008

2. 2 Installed Generating Capacity in the Country (31 st March, 2008) INSTALLED CAPACITY : FUEL WISE Total – 1,43,061 MW

3. 3 INSTALLED CAPACITY : SECTOR WISE Installed Generating Capacity in the Country (31 st March, 2008) Total – 1,43,061 MW

4. 4 Fresh Capacity addition during Plan period 2,8864,653 9,027 16,664 26,680 42,585 63,636 85,795 1,05,046 1,32,329 Cumulative installed capacity at the end of Plan PLAN PERIOD GENERATING CAPACITY (all figures in MW) Sectoral Performance over Five Year Plan Periods

5. 5 Generation Performance Generation during last year of the Plan period (in BU) 61.962.271.174.384.8 49.253.060.367.070.6 57.569.571.274.786.3 52.456.564.469.976.8 6.77.911.57.59.9 11.716.718.011.813.5 PLF (in %) during last year of Plan period : Central Sector State Sector Private Sector Overall Supply shortages: (as % of demand during last year of resp. Plan period) Energy Shortage (%) Peak Deficit (%) PLAN PERIOD

6. Per Capita Consumption of Electricity in India (Projected) As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population) Growth Pattern

7. 7 Demand and Capacity Requirement – Plan-wise up to Year 2032 (as per IEP Report corresponding to 8% GDP growth) YearEnergy Reqmt. (BU) Peak Demand (MW) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Coal Based Installed Capacity (MW) No. of Super Critical Units 660/ 800 MW 2006-07 (actual) 6911,00,7151,32,32971,121NIL/ NIL 2011-12 ( 11 th Plan) 10971,58,0002,29,6481,27,16110/ 2 2012-17 (12 th Plan) 15242,26,2003,06,0001,63,16112/ 31 2017-22 (13 th Plan) 21183,23,0004,25,0002,25,00012/ 50 2022-27 (14 th Plan) 28664,37,0005,75,0003,04,00010/ 70 2027-32 (15 th Plan) 38805,92,0007,78,0004,12,00010/ 100

8. 8 Action Plan for 11 th Plan Period Objectives  Sustain annual growth rate of over 8%  Power supply Quality Reliability  Power availability Access Affordability  Commercial viability Operating systems & procedures Loss reduction Major Action Areas - Generation - Transmission - Distribution - Rural Electrification

9. 9 Demand and Capacity Requirement for 11 th Plan (as per 17 th EPS Report) YearEnergy Requirement (BU) Peak Demand (MW) Proposed Capacity Addition during 5 year Plan (MW) Cumulative Average Gowth Rate (CAGR) 2011-1210381,52,00078,778 ( 11 th Plan) 9.5% 2016-1714702,18,20082,200 (12 th Plan) 7.4%

10. 10 CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 11 th PLAN : FUEL WISE Total 78,778 MW Additional capacity expected: Renewables – 13,500 MW : Captive – 12,000 MW Generation

11. 11 CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 12 th PLAN : FUEL WISE Generation Total 82,200 MW

12. 12 STATUS OF CAPACITY ADDITION LIKELY DURING 11 th PLAN (as on 31.03.08) * Additional capacity expected : Renewables (13,500 MW), Captive (12,000MW) (all figures in MW) Generation (Contd..) TypeCommissionedUnder construction for commissioning during 11 th Plan Orders to be placed by March, 2008 Total Hydro 2,42313,2041,00016,627 Thermal 6,62046,4835,66858,771 Nuclear 2203,160-3,380 Total 9,26362,8476,66878,778

13. 13 YEAR WISE CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETS DURING 11 th PLAN (MW) 2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12TOTAL Hydro 2,4231,0971,8051,7419,56116,627 Thermal 6,6209,30413,91915,45313,46558,771 Nuclear 2206602,00050003,380 TOTAL 9,2631106117,72417,69423,02678,778 Generation (Contd..)

14. 14 Transmission System Development EMERGING SCENARIO ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS TECHNOLOGY DELOPMENT/SOLUTIONS OPEN ACCESS AND POWER TRADING CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING TRANSMISSION TARIFF ISSUES

15. 15 CHRONOLOGY PRIOR TO 1948  Isolated Systems around Urban and Industrial Areas ELECTRICITY (SUPPLY) ACT,1948.  Coordinated Development - creation of CEA.  Extending Electricity to Semi-urban and Rural areas.  State Grid Systems - SEBs.

16. 16 Development of State Grid Systems during 50s and 60s Regional Grids Concept: 1964 Consolidation 70s, 80s Towards National Grid Focus:1998 Programme1998 – 2012 Electricity Act 2003: Open access in transmission Growth of Power System

17. 17 Regional systems óRegion specific objectives óPower evacuation and supply to area load centers óReliability and open access margins National system óHarnessing ER/NER resources on all India basis óPhased development of cross-regional transmission system óLong term perspective to address ROW and Chicken Neck óRegional wise export/ import objectives óReliability and open access margins Development Objective

18. 18 ADEQUACY  THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO SUPPLY ELECTRICAL DEMAND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AT ALL TIMES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SCHEDULED AND REASONABLY EXPECTED UNSCHEDULED OUTAGES OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS. SECURITY  THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO WITHSTAND SUDDEN DISTURBANCES SUCH AS ELECTRIC SHORT CIRCUITS OR UNANTICIPATED LOSS OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS.

19. 19 Transmission Planning Objectives Adequate and reliable system to meet the transmission needs. Reliable dispersal of power to each area. Fit into long-term plan and amenable for phased development.

20. 20 Transmission Planning Objectives cont..  De-licensing of generation is likely to result in influencing pattern of power flows requiring frequent reassessment of adequacies/inadequacies in the transmission network and necessary system strengthening from time to time.  There is also risk of stranded assets in transmission on account of variation in generation growth with respect to that based on which transmission network was developed.

21. 21 Transmission Planning Objectives cont …. Obtaining right of way for new transmission lines has become increasingly difficult. Therefore, there is a need to optimize the power transmission corridors. Use of extra/ultra high voltage and high capacity lines, multi circuit lines and increasing transmission capability of existing lines through use of re-conductoring using Aluminum – alloy conductors or series compensation and flexible alternating current transmission systems (FACTS) devices where optimal, are the possible solutions.

22. 22  Establishment of Regional Electricity Boards  Development of Inter-state lines through Centrally Sponsored Schemes/ Common generation projects  Regional Grid through Central Sector Transmission REGIONAL GRIDS

23. 23 DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN POWER SYSTEM CONCEPT TILL 2002  Generation & transmission development on Regional self sufficiency.  Inter-regional lines for limited exchange of operational surpluses through asynchronous links.  Exchange in radial mode between ER - NR, WR - SR & ER - NR.  Surplus available not being fully utilized in other deficit regions as previous plans were not for bulk inter-regional transfer.

24. 24 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE  SUBSTANTIAL SAVINGS POSSIBLE WITH POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNED ON COUNTRYWISE BASIS AND THE SYSTEM OPERATED ACCORDINGLY  SAVINGS ON ACCOUNT OF:  DEMAND DIVERSITIES  RESERVE SHARING  OPTIMAL LOCATION OF GENERATION  ENHANCED UTILISATION OF OPERATIONAL SURPLUSSES AND MERIT ORDER GENERATION ON A WIDER SCALE.  TO ACHIEVE THE ABOVE A NATIONAL GRID IS REQUIRED TO BE DEVELOPED

25. 25 SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSMISSION SYSTEM  MUST BE ADEQUATE AND RELIABLE TO MEET EVACUATION REQUIREMENT FOR EACH STATION SEPERATELY.  MUST PROVIDE RELIABLE DISPERSAL TO DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OF EACH AREA.  SHOULD FIT WELL INTO LONG TERM SYSTEM NEEDS  AMENABLE FOR STAGED DEVELOPMENT  OPTIMALLY UTILISE TRANSMISSION CORRIDORS  PLANNED TO MEET EXTREME CREDIBLE CONTINGENCIES In case of inter regional lines this would mean increased surplus in normally surplus regions and simultaneously increased deficit in normally deficit region.

26. 26 Regional approach óPeak demand, maximum hydro and off peak conditions óMaximum generation in a complex for evacuation system National approach óExtreme dispatch scenario by maximizing surplus in surplus region and deficit in deficit region óCombinations of surplus and deficit scenarios for different regions Transmission Planning Criteria -- Dispatch schedules for planning studies

27. 27 Security Criteria Trade-off of investments and risks System should return to normal conditions after a single line to ground fault on a transmission line removed after 100ms

28. 28 The Landmark Events  1990Generation of Electricity opened for Private Sector  1998Electricity Regulatory Commission Act  1998765kV transmission line (initially charged at 400kV)  2002Synchronous inter-connection of ER and NER  2002Concept of Development of All India National Power Grid

29. 29 The Landmark Events  2003Electricity Act 2003 – Open access in Transmission  2003Synchronization of WR with ER-NER system  2003Inter-regional HVDC transmission system  2005-06National Electricity Plan  2006Synchronization of NR with ER-NER-WR  2007765kV transmission line at 765kV operation

30. 30 RELIABILITY ISSUES AND GRID OPERATION Planning Criteria : Transmission matching with generation Transmission capacity based on Regional Export/import Evacuation schemes and System strengthening schemes ‘N-1’ contingency for mesh/loop system ‘N-2’ for large generation complex – >3000MW ‘N-2’ for large cities of above 2000MW load ‘N-1’ with no load shedding and no rescheduling ‘N-2’ could be with rescheduling but no load shedding

31. 31 Planning Criteria Transmission capacity for transfer of full surplus in surplus region and to meet the deficit in deficit region considered in evolving National Grid. The adequacy of the transmission system tested for different load generation scenarios corresponding to one or more of the following so as to test the scenario of maximum burden on the transmission system.  Summer Peak Load;  Summer Off-Peak Load;  Winter Peak Load;  Winter Off-Peak Load;  Monsoon Peak Load;  Monsoon Off-Peak Load.

32. 32 XI Plan Transmission Plan Inter-regional Transmission Requirement Winter Off Peak Winter Peak RegionsAvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus AvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus Northern2509831878-6780 3477045540-10770 Western44693372197474 4854453170-4626 Southern28802261032699 3416835426-1258 Eastern300351178818247 325211684015681 North-Eastern22271862365 386926601209 Total13085410885022004 153871153636+235

33. 33 XI Plan Transmission Plan Inter-regional Transmission Requirement Monsoon Off Peak Monsoon Peak RegionsAvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus AvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus Northern41435318789557 43853409862867 Western44517372197298 4622847853-1625 Southern32070261035967 3445533561894 Eastern297551178817967 309981515615842 North-Eastern539718623535 580723943413 Total15317310885044323 16134113995021391

34. 34 XI Plan Transmission Plan Inter-regional Transmission Requirement Summer Off Peak Summer Peak RegionsAvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus AvailabilityDemand Deficit/ Surplus Northern3663140986-4355 4025845540-5282 Western44486372197267 4705353170-6117 Southern30702261034599 3427937290-3011 Eastern294721178817684 313361684014496 North-Eastern427918622417 510026602440 Total14557011795827612 1580261555002526

35. 35 Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement – 2011- 12 RegionRequirementScenario Northern10770 MW importWinter peak Western6117 MW importSummer peak Southern3011 MW importSummer peak Eastern18247 MW exportWinter off-peak North-eastern3535 MW exportMonsoon off-peak

36. 36 Inter-Regional transmission planned (2011-12) RegionRequirement MWPlanned MW Northern 10770 import11500 Western6117 import 9500 Southern3011 import 3600 Eastern18247 export19350 NER3535 export 5250 plus 7600 MW NR-WR and 2700 MW WR-SR Plus 3000 MW of ER-NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC

37. 37 Growth in Transmission System 1950 71 81 85 90 92 97 2002 2008

38. 38 TARGET FOR THE 11 th PLAN PERIOD VoltageAddition during the PlanCumulative at end of the Plan CKMMVA/ MWCKMMVA/ MW HVDC5,2006,00011,00014,200 765 kV5,40051,0007,13053,000 400 kV49,00052,000125,000145,000 220 kV35,00073,000150,000230,000 Sector wise overall targets for addition during the Plan period : - Centre (Powergrid)30,600 ckm / 92,000 MVA/ MW - State 45,000 ckm / 82,000 MVA/ MW - Private (including JV) 19,000 ckm / 8,000 MVA/ MW 94,600 ckm / 1,82,000 MVA/ MW Transmission

39. 39 Regio n Hydro (I/C) Therma l ( I/C) Total (I/C) AvailabilityDispatc h DemandDeficit(-) Surplus(+) NR300004500075000472504650060000-13500 WR80006500073000576505600065000-9000 SR140004800062000464004600050000-4000 ER10000500006000047500 2250025000 NE90003000120005250700035001500 Total71000211000282000204050201000 0 Winter Peak Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15 X Plan=130 GW, XI Plan +78 GW, XII Plan +82 GW XII Plan End =290 GW. More Generation through LTOA

40. 40 RegionHydro (I/C) Therma l ( I/C) Total (I/C)AvailabilityDispatc h DemandDeficit(-) Surplus(+) NR300004500075000540004900060000-11000 WR80006500073000568005400065000-11000 SR140004800062000468004600050000-4000 ER100005000060000460004500022500 NE90003000120007800070003500 Total71000211000282000211400201000 00 Summer Peak Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15

41. 41 RegionHydro (I/C) Therma l ( I/C) Total (I/C)AvailabilityDispatc h DemandDeficit(-) Surplus(+) NR300004500075000607504500054000-9000 WR80006500073000559504900059000-10000 SR140004800062000486004400045000-1000 ER100005000060000465003500020000+15000 NE90003000120001035082003200+5000 Total710002110002820002221502010001812000 Monsoon Peak Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15

42. 42 Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement (2014-15) RegionRequirementScenario Northern 13500 ImportWinter peak Western 11000 ImportSummer peak Southern4000 ImportWinter/Summer peak Eastern 25000 Export (23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER) Winter peak North-eastern5000 exportMonsoon peak

43. 43 Inter-Regional Transmission Capacity Planned (2014-15) RegionRequirement MWPlanned MW Northern13500 import19420 (ER to NR) Western11000 import12760 (ER to WR) Southern4000 import3620 (ER to SR) Eastern 25000 export (23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER) 33700 (ER to NR/WR/SR) NER5000 export2480 (NER to ER) +3000( NER to NR) 3000 MW of ER- NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC plus 7180 MW NR WR and 6880 MW WR SR

44. 44 Cumulative Capacity at end of period (MW)  22,800 MW to be added during the XI th Plan period. Additional inter-regional capacity of 21,800 MW to be added during 2012-15(first three years of the XII th Plan) Transmission (Contd.. ) NATIONAL GRID – INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY By 10 th Plan By 11 th PlanBy 2014-15 ER-SR31203620 ER-NR42201112019420 ER-WR1760646012760 ER-NER12402840 NR-WR208041807180 WR-SR168026806880 NER/ER-NR/WR06000 Total141003790058700

45. 45 ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES LOAs FOR 3 NOS. UMPPs ISSUED. ONE MORE PROJECT BEING PROCESSED DURING XI PLAN PERIOD ANOTHER 5 MORE UMP PROJECTS ARE PROPOSED TO BE TAKEN UP ALLOCATION OF POWER FROM EACH UMPP TO MORE THAN ONE REGION ALL THE STATES IN A REGION HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOCATED POWER

46. 46 ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES ISSUES REGARDING POOLING OF UMPP ATS WITH EXISTING REGIONAL POOL SHARING OF TRANSMISSION CHARGES OF UMPP ATS TO RESOLVE THIS CEA HAS PROPOSED THE FOLLOWING SOLUTION (a) IDENTIFY TRANSMISSION LINES EXCLUSIVELY REQUIRED FOR EVACUATION OF UMPP POWER (b) IDETIFY TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENT FOR STRENTHENING OF REGIONAL GRID (a) TO BE SHARED BY PROJECT BENIFICIARIES AND (b) TO BE POOLED WITH REGIONAL TRANSMISSION AND SHARED BY CONSTITUENTS

47. 47 Regional and State Sector Transmission System  Inter-regional and Intra-regional( inter-state )system Planned by CEA  Implementation by PGCIL and also by the Private Sector  Matching transmission system at 220kV, 132 kV, 66kV, 33kV and Distribution system in urban as well as rural areas required to planned and implemented by the States to ensure reach planned of electricity up to the final destination catering to the end consumers in the country.

48. 48 SYSTEM PROTECTION Power systems operating in synchronism to be provided with defense measures such as - islanding schemes and automatic load shedding and special protection schemes (Talcher- Kolar HVDC Scheme) Reliable protection so that grid incidents do not cause cascade tripping Operational measures to ensure reliability at all times Best practices to maintain high level of system availability

49. 49  Multi Circuit Lines  High Capacity LinesMulti conductors High temp designs Alloy Conductors High SIL lines  Higher Voltages765kV /1200kV AC 600kV / 800kV HVDC  Compact substationsGIS  Increasing transmission densityFACTS/SVC  Compressing construction period Satellite Imagery Standard Designs Modern construction techniques TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS

50. 50 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT High Capacity 6000 MW + 800kV HVDC System 765kV /1200kV AC Transmission System Upgradation / Up-rating of Transmission Lines Application of Series Compensation Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) High Temperature Endurance Conductor  High Surge Impedance Loading Lines (HSIL)  Airborne Laser terrain Mapping (ALTM) for detailed route survey Conditional Monitoring Equipments Preventive Maintenance of Transformers using State-of-art online equipments Test Facilities for 1200kV AC

51. 51 OPEN ACCESS LONG TERM SHORT TERM -BILATERAL -POWER EXCHANGE -UNSCHEDULED INTERCHANGE

52. 52 Open Access and Trading Transmission Capacity based on long-term commitments Reliability/operational margins for Short-term OA These margins generally provide 20-30% additional capacity with respect to committed transmission for long-term transaction (not as some % of generation capacity) No planned addition transmission capacity for STOA For generators seeking LTOA for lesser capacity, only limited transmission capacity would be provided

53. 53 Open Access and Trading Regulation for grid connectivity to merchant plants Grid strengthening for transmission needs of merchant plants based on commitment of long-term transmission charges Regulations for transmission open access for intermediate period say 3-5 yrs to facilitate “Case - 1” procurement by Utilities. Allowing grid connectivity without LTOA would dissuade long-term commitments for transmission charges leading to retarded growth Higher STOA charges for trading out of such capacities which have not tied-up Long-term Transmission Charges

54. 54  OPEN ACCESS IN TRANSMISSION  Market driven exchanges may influence pattern of power flow  Periodic review and strengthening

55. 55  Uncertainty in load growthImpact on Transmission Planning  Changes in Generation Programme Need of periodic review of Plan De-licensing of Thermal Generation Delay in schedule of hydro projects Implementation of Merchant Power Plants New IPPs getting developed  ROW CONSTRAINTEnvironmental – Forest land and Wild life sanctuaries Populated and Urban Areas Legal issues  Utilization of Hydro potential in Transmission Tariff the North-eastChicken-neck CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING

56. 56  Transmission Tariff Issues  Can we continue with present tariff ?  Should the tariff be on National basis ?  Flat postage stamp or Locational tariff ?  Distance and directional sensitive – Zonal Tariffs ?  How should the short term charges be priced with respect to long- term charges ?  How the long term and short term transaction losses to be treated?  Are the lower short-term charges hampering the transmission development ? CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING (Contd..)

57. 57