1. Marine Recreational Information Program Update Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council April 9, 2013 Rob Andrews Office of Science and Technology

2. Agenda Estimation Design Catch Survey Design Effort Survey Design For Hire Data Collection U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

3. Estimation Catch = Effort (trips) * Catch per trip Effort – Offsite surveys Catch per trip – Onsite surveys U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

4. Catch per Trip Estimation “ The estimation procedure for information gathered onsite does not use nominal or actual selection probabilities of the sampling design, and therefore, has the potential to produce biased estimates… ” (NRC Review) Sample of anglers selected in stages MRFSS estimation design ignored selection probabilities and sample weights – potential for bias U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

5. Catch per Trip Estimation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

6. Catch per Trip Estimation “ The estimation procedure for information gathered onsite does not use nominal or actual selection probabilities of the sampling design, and therefore, has the potential to produce biased estimates… ” (NRC Review) Sample of anglers selected in stages MRFSS estimation design ignored selection probabilities and sample weights – potential for bias U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

7. Catch per Trip Estimation Revised MRIP estimation design accounts for selection probabilities at all stages of sampling Incorporates sample weights into CPUE estimation Design-unbiased Revised estimates 2004-2012 Comparisons between MRFSS and revised MRIP estimates are available on the MRIP website. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

8. Catch Survey Design “The onsite sampling frame should be re-designed” “…interviewers frequently are allowed to make judgments about where, when, and which units [sites/anglers] to sample” U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8

9. Catch Survey Design MRIP completely updated catch survey sample frame (site register) Collaborated with state natural resource agencies to add new sites, update site pressures and add information about site amenities Site register is publicly accessible, and we encourage public input: https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/siteregister/html/siteRegister.jsp U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

10. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

11. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

12. Catch Survey Design A new MRIP catch survey design implemented for wave 2, 2013 Stratified sampling design Time of day Geographically Small sites clustered together to ensure coverage Very specific interviewing protocols Design will be closely monitored throughout 2013 to evaluate performance U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

13. Effort Survey Design “The existing random digit dialing (RDD) survey suffers in [in]efficiency from the low proportion of fishing households among the general population and may allow bias in estimation from its restriction to coastal counties only” “A comprehensive, universal sampling frame with national coverage should be established” “Dual-frame procedures should be used whenever possible to reduce sample bias” U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

14. Effort Survey Design Implemented National Saltwater Angler Registry Tested Angler License Directory Telephone Surveys Much more efficient than RDD Poor response rates Missing and/or inaccurate contact information LOTS of people fish without a license It’s not currently feasible to sample exclusively from license databases U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

15. Effort Survey Design Dual-Frame Mail Survey Designs Sample from angler license databases and residential address frames Address frame provides nearly 100% coverage License sampling results in efficiency gains Response rates considerably higher than telephone surveys Feasible to produce estimates in timely manner Continue testing through 2013 with plans to implement broadly in 2014 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

16. For-Hire Data Collections “Charter boat, head boat and other for-hire recreational fishing operations should be required to maintain logbooks of fish landed and kept as well as fish caught and released” U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

17. For-Hire Data Collections Currently utilize For-Hire Survey (FHS) to estimate catch and effort for charter boats coast-wide and headboats from ME-VA Weekly survey of charter boat operators Dockside and at-sea observation of catch Headboats in Southeast Region report via Southeast Regional Headboat Survey (SRHS) MRIP has funded implementation of electronic logbooks in the SRHS Tested logbook reporting for Federally permitted for-hire vessels in Gulf of Mexico – project report will be published shortly U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

18. What’s Next? Monitoring of MRIP catch survey Finalize design of MRIP effort survey – 2014 implementation Revise pre-2004 estimates Publish results of GOM logbook pilot study and develop follow-up projects as necessary Establish standards for precision of catch estimates Work with stakeholders to evaluate tradeoffs among precision, timeliness and resolution U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

19. Questions? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19

20. Catch per Trip Estimation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20 N=100 N=10 Site ASite B

21. Catch per Trip Estimation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21 N=100 n=2 W=(100/2)=50 N=10 n=2 W=(10/2)=5 Site ASite B

22. Catch per Trip Estimation U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22

23. Quality Control Unscheduled supervisor visits Follow-up telephone interviews with sampled anglers Manual review of monthly raw survey data ( “fish dumps”) Automated checks of data Manual review of wave estimates Public posting of preliminary estimates U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23