1. Vulnerable Local Economies Labour Market Forum 22 March 2011 Sian Rasdale

2. The Public Sector in Scotland December 2010 - 595,800 employed in the public sector - 24.0% of total employment 493,100 (82.8%) derives from public bodies devolved to Scotland 102,800 (17.2%) relates to reserved public sector employment.

3. Make-up of the public sector in Scotland Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Q4 2010

4. Is public sector employment evenly distributed? Source: 1. Business Register Employment Survey, 2009, ONS Supplemented by 2. Defence Analytical Services and Advice (DASA), TSP 10, October 2009, MoD 3. Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2009 15% to 25% jobs in public sector 25% to 35% jobs in public sector 35% to 45% jobs in public sector

5. SG Analysis – Indicators used –Level/proportion of public sector jobs –Increase in number of people on the claimant count since September 2008 –Level/proportion of people on the claimant count longer than 12 months –Gap/rate between notified vacancies and number of people on unemployment benefit. –Level/proportion of people on Employment Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefit –Gap between public and private sector earnings –Proportion/level of employed people who are self-employed –Number of jobs in vulnerable industries –Number of jobs in resilient and high growth industries –Number of jobs in GES key sectors –Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with no qualifications –Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with NVQ4 and above –Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Managers, Senior Officials and Professional Occupations’. –Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Elementary Occupations’. –Number of new enterprises –% of Private Sector Jobs within the top 10 large employers in an area –% of Jobs in Vulnerable industries

6. SG Analysis LA Results Local HotspotsNational Hotspot West DunbartonshireNorth Lanarkshire North AyrshireGlasgow City North LanarkshireSouth Lanarkshire East AyrshireEdinburgh, City of FalkirkEast Ayrshire Dundee CityFife Glasgow CityNorth Ayrshire MidlothianDundee City Renfrewshire West Lothian Highlighted areas are both a local and national hotspot.

7. SG Analysis TTWA Hotspots Local HotspotNational Hotspot Irvine & ArranGlasgow Dunoon & ButeLanarkshire DumbartonEdinburgh Kirkcaldy & GlenrothesAyr & Kilmarnock HawickKirkcaldy & Glenrothes Kelso & JedburghFalkirk LochgilpheadDundee WickIrvine & Arran Eilean SiarLivingston & Bathgate FalkirkAberdeen

8. Comparison of Analysis Overall ranking – ITEM club Business resilience – Experian SG Analysis – Local Hotspots MidlothianNorth AyrshireWest Dunbartonshire East AyrshireWest DunbartonshireNorth Ayrshire InverclydeFalkirkNorth Lanarkshire ClackmannanshireNorth LanarkshireEast Ayrshire Dundee CityClackmannanshireFalkirk West DunbartonshireDundee City Eilean SiarInverclydeGlasgow City East LothianRenfrewshireMidlothian FifeEast AyrshireRenfrewshire East RenfrewshireWest Lothian Local authorities in red are in the ‘top ten’ for all three sets of analysis Local authorities in orange appear in the ‘top ten’ for two sets of analysis

9. Dundee City High rates of worklessness Highly qualified workforce – underutilised? Dependence on the public sector –25,000 jobs of 83,000 in public sector 8,100 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire) 850 in HMRC 600 Pension and Disability Carers Service 490 JC+ Remainder – devolved agencies/NDPBs, Police, Fire, NHS

10. East Ayrshire Low rate of vacancies/claimant count Low private sector earnings Low qualifications Dependence on public sector –14,000 jobs of 46,000 in public sector 6,600 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire) 380 JC+ 120 Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commision 40 Scottish Court Service

11. Next Steps Build up detailed picture of make-up of public sector for regions/LA’s Gather information on public sector job cuts Further analysis around local areas ability to respond

12. Discussion Any questions? Sian Rasdale Labour Market Statistician 0300 244 6783