1. Is support for the welfare state being undermined by immigration – or does the welfare state mobilize solidarity with immigrants? Jørgen Goul Andersen CCWS, Aalborg University, Denmark Policy Network Seminar: Boon or burden? Immigration and reform of European welfare states London, October13, 2008

2. Does immigration erode solidarity ? 1. Culture hypothesis: Cultural homogeneity = precondition of welfare solidarity (Alesina & Glaeser, 2004) People indeed do feel more solidarity with people resembling themselves (e.g. Wim van Oorschot, 2007) 2. Institutional hypothesis: Institutions matter: Type of welfare state matters –residual welfare state targeted to the poor = vulnerable –institutional welfare state covering social risks and providing services for the entire population = much less vulnerable Temporal order matters –may be difficult to build a welfare state –far less difficult to maintain a welfare state –Welfare state may even mobilize solidarity

3. Issue of Immigration in Danish elections Election year Per cent of voters regarding immigration as important problem Support for Danish People’s Party + Progress Party (per cent) 1984 0 3.6 1987 8 4.8 1988 3 9.0 1990 7 6.4 199417 6.4 199835 9.8 20015112.6 2005*2413.3 20073713.8 Danish People’s Party Most class-based party: working class support. Increasingly pro-welfare party. But welfare chauvinist Source: Danish Election Surveys; 2005: Pre-election survey

4. General support for welfare increasing: Improved Welfare or Tax Relief Election year Prefer tax relief Prefer improved public services Don’t knowTotalBal. Of Opinion: Welfare minus tax relief 199447449100 -3 199841545100+13 200145514100 +6 200535614100+26 2007*22735100+51 Source: Election surveys; 2007: Pre-election survey. ”Suppose that it would be possible to reduce taxes, what would you prefer…?”

5. Attitudes towards welfare spending 2007 Too little money Appro- priate Too much money TotalBal. of opinion Health care71272100+69 Old age pensions48502100+46 Education62371100+61 Social assistance24679100+15 Refugees & immigrants305614100+16 Source: Pre-election Survey 2007

6. Change in spending attitudes 1990-2007 19901998200120052007 Health care+61+77+67+66+69 Old age pensions+57+42+46+36+46 Education+45+39+46+60+61 Social assistance-11-10-13+2+15 Refugees & immigrants-30-41-33-10+16 Source: Election Surveys; 2007: Pre-election Survey. Due to lower umemployment and increase in immigrant population, a significantly increasing share of social assistance claimants are immigrants

7. Association between considering immigration an important problem and attitudes to immigration, 1998-2007. Election Immigration important ”Immigration constitutes a serious threat to our national culture” Bal. of opinion: Disagree minus agree AgreeNeutralDisagree 1998Yes531433-20 No341551+17 Effect-37 2001Yes461341-5 No341848+14 Effect-19 2005*Yes42454+12 No40951+11 Effect+1 2007Yes351550+15 No332542+9 Effect+6 Source: Danish Election Surveys; 2005: Pre-election survey.

8. Welfare for the Danes: A dual welfare state? 2002: Immigration Package - strongly restricted access to immigration and family reunion - new social assistance scheme for immigrants - regardless of citizenship - but only for people immigrating from non-EU countries 2002: More people to work: Labour Market Package - limitations on social assistance in order to ensure that there would always be an incentive to take a low-paid job 2005: A New Chance for All: Integration Package - requirement that married people receiving social assistance should have 300 hours of ”normal” paid employment in order to maintain social assistance benefits. 2008: Compromise to reduce impact of European Community Law regarding right of migrant citizens: 300 hours requirement increased to 450 h.

9. More general tendency towards dual welfare state? Full public pensions requires 40 years of residence (1973 – not aimed at immigrants from outside EU) Otherwise as universal welfare state rather inclusive welfare state for immigrants. (disability benefits, health care use; child care, elderly care etc.) Refugees have the same rights as Danish citizens