1. Higher-Ed Policy in 2015: What Should the Goal Be? Diana Carew Progressive Policy Institute February 3, 2014

2. Agenda A Hot Topic: Flurry of New Proposals What Should the Goal Be? Why Completion Matters Targeting Completion The Bigger Picture: – The importance of skills matching in addition to completion Higher Ed in the 21 st Cetury Implications for Policy

3. Lots of New Proposals FAST REPAY Free Community College Institutional Rankings Discharge student debt in bankruptcy Re-fi, revisited? And many more (but not 529s)

4. What Should the Goal Be? The emphasis is mainly on increasing access and enrollment – Less on completion and outcomes – Rankings are an attempt at accountability Should We Care More About Completion? – A factor in majority of loan defaults – Seriously divergent outcomes What about Alternative Pathways into the Workforce? – Is it practical for everyone to get a college degree, and do we all need one?

5. Labor Force Participation

6. Real Earnings

7. Jobs: College Grads Workforce Shifting: 2009-2014 Employment Change, BA only, age 25-34*

8. Jobs: Some College No Degree: 2009-2014 Employment Change, age 25-34*

9. Point: Completion, Skills Matching Better Goals Completion critical but so is skills matching and alternative pathways – Too many people getting degrees they aren’t using, squeezing everyone else down and out

10. Targeting Completion & Skills Matching Students Need More! – Better Information about Schools That includes the various types of schools and pathways into the workforce – Better Career Counseling – Better Financial Literacy Schools Need to do Better! – Better Matching to Skills in Demand – Working with Employers (PPPs for human capital infrastructure)

11. The Bigger Picture: Tech Opportunity Tech jobs (computer & mathematical) have increased by about 1 million since recovery began: – Not just in Silicon Valley or at Google Enormous source of opportunity and economic mobility for minorities: – More jobs gained for college-educated African Americans in tech than healthcare since 2009 Need better career matching and college counseling: – Too many science minded female and minority students are being funneled into healthcare over tech jobs – Women especially are not benefiting from the tech jobs boom

12. The Bigger Picture: Post- Recession Consumer Welfare Data Sector driving post-recession gains in consumer welfare – As defined by per capita real PCE New way to think about stale inequality debate and stagnant wages – And why Americans are frustrated even as official data shows recovery Those who can participate in data- driven economy will benefit most – Goes back to jobs chart

13. Future of Higher-Ed Defined by Better Matching of Education/Training to Skills in Demand – More pathways into the workforce – Data-driven curriculum in partnership with employers Using tech to customize design and delivery of knowledge Training for tomorrow’s middle-skill jobs to promote shared prosperity – Driverless car mechanics – Unmanned drone technicians – Smart home network designers

14. Thinking about Policy Invest more in CTE training – Not free college Encourage new models of higher-ed – Competency-based – Customized (online/in person hybrid) Start earlier than college – Incorporate financial literacy and effective career decision-making in high-schools Figure out data privacy issues – Network integration across stakeholders Streamline student loan repayment programs – Reduce unnecessary complications

15. THANK YOU! dcarew@ppionline.org @dianagcarew