1. Opinion and Polling

2. What do the American people think? How do we know what the American people think?

3. Opinion and Polling Politicians seem to know...

4. Opinion and Polling What does America look like?

5. Opinion and Polling A nation of immigrants...

6. Opinion and Polling Immigration Wave #1 (late 1800s): Northwest Europe

7. Opinion and Polling Immigration Wave #2 (late 1800s / early 1900s): Southern / Eastern Europe

8. Opinion and Polling Immigration Wave #3 (recent decades): Hispanics and Asians

9. Opinion and Polling Diverse in many ways...

10. Opinion and Polling

11. Until recently, which group has been the largest minority group? According to the 2000 census, which group has surpassed African Americans in number?

12. Opinion and Polling

13. Which ethnic group has been called “the super-achievers of the minority majority”? Which ethnic group is the worst off in America today?

14. Opinion and Polling

20. Political Socialization the process of obtaining political ideologies, viewpoints and opinions Influenced by...  Family  Media  School

21. Opinion and Polling Political Socialization Correlates to  Geography  Religion  Urban / suburban / rural  Race

22. Opinion and Polling Opinion Polling

23. Opinion and Polling

25. I.Straw Poll A.Unscientific B.Relies on asking a large number of people C.Respondents are self-selected (not random)

26. Opinion and Polling II.Scientific Polling A.Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure

27. Opinion and Polling

28. II.Scientific Polling A.Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure B.Constructing a sample (random sample) – universe too large to ask everyone 1.All members of the universe have an equal chance of being interviewed 2.Usually 1,000 – 1,500 people (law of probability) 3.+ or – 3% margin of error

29. Opinion and Polling II.Scientific Polling C.Prepare valid questions 1.Phrasing

30. Opinion and Polling “Should taxes be increased?” “Should taxes be increased in order to expand the police force in order to stem the rising tide of violence in our city?”

31. Opinion and Polling II.Scientific Polling C.Prepare valid questions 1.Phrasing 2.Bias

32. Opinion and Polling “The right of a woman to terminate her pregnancy should be protected.” “The right of a woman to murder the unborn child in her womb should be protected.”

33. Opinion and Polling II.Scientific Polling C.Prepare valid questions 1.Phrasing 2.Bias D.Interview respondents 1.By phone = more cost effective 2.Interviewer a.Tone b.Emphasis c.Accent / dialect

34. Opinion and Polling II.Scientific Polling E.Analyze findings 1.Interpretation (subjective) 2.computerization