1. Progress in the Implementation of the RAPIDC Programme Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI

2. RAPIDC Structure RAPIDC SEISida PMC Malé Declaration APINAAir Pollution Networks CORNET APCEN CAD APMA

3. RAPIDC Structure RAPIDC SEISida PMC Malé Declaration APINAAir Pollution Networks CORNET APCEN CAD APMA

4. Indian CAD stations 10 years of data Limited records Pune Bhubaneswar

5. Indian CAD stations 10 years of data Limited records Pune Bhubaneswar Monitoring – Long-term trends Sulfate in rainwater at Bhubaneswar 1997-2004

6. Monitoring – Long-term trends Temporal variations of pH, SO 4, NO 3, Ca and NH 4 in rain water at Pune urban sites during 1984 – 2004 from the CAD network (source: Rao et al.)

7. RAPIDC Structure RAPIDC SEISida PMC Malé Declaration APINAAir Pollution Networks CORNET APCEN CAD APMA

8. Support for the Malé Declaration Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia Technical Assistance

9. Support for the Malé Declaration Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia Technical Assistance

10. Malé Monitoring – Monthly means of SO 2 2006

11. Male Monitoring – Monthly means of NO 2 2006

12. Male Monitoring – Monthly means of O 3 2006

13. EMEP Monitoring – Monthly means of O 3 2005

14. Support for the Malé Declaration Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia Technical Assistance

15. Emission Inventories

17. Preliminary emissions inventory results for Pakistan (Inventory year 2005).

18. Future Plans Consolidate and update national inventories Continued QA/QC, Inclusion of large point sources, Update inventory to 2005 Improvement of Malé emissions inventory preparation Manual/Workbook Improved transport emissions section Scenarios/policy options module Spatial and temporal disaggregation Speciation of NMVOCs into reactivity classes Suitable emission factors Include methodologies to help estimate activity data

19. Emission Scenarios time emission Scenario 1 Scenario 2

20. and the other way around... How would you like the future to look like? ‘Backcasting’

21. Work tasks Develop capacity in Scenario Development Manual for the Development of Emission Scenarios for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in South Asia Help find best pathway for linking of inventories to scenario based tools A focus has emerged on delivering a sound foundation rather than experimenting with example scenarios from National data. Deliver training in Scenarios development Emission Scenario introduction and application training for Malé partners: Bangkok July 06, February 07, one more in 08

22. Atmospheric Transport of Pollutants MATCH model in Malé IIAS Training in principles of atmospheric transport MATCH model installed at Malé Secretariat

23. Modelling projects within RAPIDC-III Ozone modelling in South Asia for crops- impact project Deposition-, PM-, ozone- modelling for Malé information software (IIAS) Installation of MATCH at UNEP for usage by regional partners Training of meteorologists in principles of atmospheric transport in July 2006 and 2007

24. Ozone modelling in South Asia Modelled three-month AOT40 (accumulated over 40 ppb(v)) over snow-free land areas of South Asia during 2000.

25. Installation of MATCH at UNEP/RRC- AP MATCH installed in Bangkok. Model tested. Limited training given to UNEP/RRC-AP staff. Overview lectures for Malé representatives at 2 workshops. Large interest to run MATCH by some Malé delegates (e.g. Pakistan). Emission inventories lacking Technical (and practical) problems in taking care of all model results.

26. Emission inventory Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric transport Pollutant deposition or concentration Monitoring Impacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems Driving forces and scenarios Policies for pollutant prevention and control Malé Integrated Information and Assessment System INTEGRATED INFORMATION AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

27. Malé Declaration IIAS Integrated Information and Assessment System Aims of the IIAS - integrate Malé Declaration activities, data and information - investigate the linkages between emissions, concentrations and deposition and compare to monitoring values - A tool to look at the risks of the regional air pollution to acidification, health and crops - A tool to investigate the implications of scenarios including different policy interventions

28. Emission workbook Emission Manual Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.) Risk areas Emission inventory Prevention Controloptions Policy instruments Energy, transport and industry scenarios Emissions by 1 o x1 o grid New Deposition Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid) S, N Deposition (by grid) MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.) CURRENT STATUS

29. Source/receptor modelling for IIAS Total NO X deposition in Malé domain, only emissions from Northern and Southern India, respectively

30. The near surface concentrations of SO 2 across South Asia from the MATCH model using EDGAR emission estimates for 1995.

33. Emission workbook Emission Manual Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.) Risk areas Scenario Emission inventory Prevention Controloptions Policy instruments Energy, transport and industry scenarios Emissions by 1 o x1 o grid New Deposition Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid) S, N Deposition (by grid) MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.) Health impacts OzonePM 2.5 Crop yield losses PHASE III: Other pollutants and impacts

34. Rapid Urban Assessment (RUA) Activities Training in methods Application of RUA in Kathmandu, Nepal, 2006/07 Top-down emission inventory for city harmonized with Malé manual Disaggregation of emissions using satellite data Dispersion modelling in urban area Monitoring campaign (PM/NO 2 )

35. Passive sampler campaign Kathmandu 10 sites bi-monthly SO 2, NO 2, HNO 3, PM, O 3 5 sites Benzene. Sampling initiated in November 2006. Mapping campaign 40 sites NO 2 60 sites PM 20 sites SO 2 Sampling initiated in May 2007

36. Kathmandu: Additional PM Monitoring

37. Support for the Malé Declaration Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia Technical Assistance

38. Human health impacts 1.Hold training workshops in assessment methods (in Bangkok October 2006 and in 2007) 2.Health study in Dhaka

39. Schools study to determine air pollution impacts on children’s health in Dhaka Study undertaken by MoE and NIPSOM: Questionnaire to parents. Children chosen. Staff trained and then 6 week study Personnel: Epidemiologist, Nurse, Technicians recruited to run study Method: 100 randomly selected asthmatic children chosen and 50 control 10 teachers chosen and trained Monitoring site near or at school Respirometer for all 150 children twice daily All symptoms recorded, all data logged and analysed by epidemiologist/ statistician

40. Acidification studies Training workshops to be held in 2008 based upon manual developed Source: Kuylenstierna et al. 2001 Terrestrial Ecosystem Sensitivity to Acidic Deposition in South Asia (preliminary assessment

41. Time development of acidification Soil acidification at Mt. Lu in southern China (Zhao, 1996)

42. The time development of acidification of soils in South Asia

43. Malé Declaration Crop Impacts Study Project activities: Using Indicator Plants to assess risk of ozone pollution Chemical protectant studies Ozone survey (Bhutan) Training Countries: Bangladesh Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

44. Risk assessment using Indicator Plants Ozone induced injury on clover 1.Undertake biomonitoring study using plants sensitive to ozone i.Grow cuttings in pots ii.Tend plants iii.Assess damage to plants and yield iv.Analyse data

45. The ozone effect on ozone sensitive clover clones exposed to ambient air pollution levels in Potchefstroom, South Africa in 2006 visible injury

46. Assessing Yield Reductions i.Establish sites with crop plants grown in pots with standard soils and wicks to keep plants at standard moisture ii.Spray soil of some pots with EDU (ethylene di-urea) and control pots not sprayed. EDU protects plants from ozone. iii.Harvest plants and compare yields of protected and un- protected crops Pilot chemical protectant study using EDU and mung bean run in Varanasi, India Country studies in 2007/8 Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore, Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid)

47. EDU Study results – Varanasi -EDU effect on mung bean plants exposed to ambient Ozone in 2006

48. Malé Corrosion Activities i. Exposing standard samples on racks 4 Malé sites: India, Iran, Nepal and Sri Lanka ii.Exposure of kits In Kathmandu with RUA iii. Stock at risk training In Kathmandu with RUA

49. Assess corrosion at sites Battaramulla, Sri Lanka, 27 November 2006

50. Assess corrosion at sites Taj Mahal, Agra, 25 November 2006

51. Assess corrosion at sites Teheran, Iran, 20 November 2006

52. Assess corrosion at sites Katmandu, Nepal, 14 November 2006

53. Results of corrosion exposure at CORNET sites in Asia and Africa

54. Corrosion Impact Activities ii. Exposure of kits - to determine relative corrosion in sites with different pollution - Expose for 1 year iii. Stock at risk training - identify materials in typical buildings (random inventory of 100s of buildings) - Generalise occurrence of buildings across city - Include street infrastructure and vehicle fleet - Estimate economic losses for materials with D-R relationships

55. Demonstrate corrosion risks Katmandu, Nepal, 14-16 November 2006

56. 4.3.2 Demonstrate corrosion risks Katmandu, Nepal, 14-16 November 2006

57. Support for the Malé Declaration Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia Technical Assistance

58. Policy Options Policy case study manual by IIIEE: ‘Policy Options for Air Pollution Prevention and Control’ in South Asia has evolved as a sourcebook with regional and international examples plus context definition rather than a “review” Complemented by ‘Compendium of best practices on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution’ by Ram Shrestha (AIT) Further work on implementation issues and relevance of options to different Malé countries by SEI to be added Two training courses held in 2006 and 2007

59. RAPIDC Structure RAPIDC SEISida PMC Malé Declaration APINAAir Pollution Networks CORNET APCEN CAD APMA

60. RAPIDC Structure RAPIDC SEISida PMC Malé Declaration APINAAir Pollution Networks CORNET APCEN CAD APMA

61. APINA is a network of policy makers, scientists, NGOs, industry and other stakeholders formed in 1998 APINA has the objective to ensure that existing impacts of air pollution in Africa are tackled and emerging risks are prevented. It aims to fill the gaps in knowledge on air pollution and ensure that currently available information and concerns are articulated to policy makers in Africa. APINA – Air Pollution Information Network for Africa

62. Most of the household energy use in southern Africa is derived from biomass More than 90% of the electricity is derived from coal – emissions There is a metal industry which releases sulphur dioxide which has local and transboundary effects Motorised transport is increasing in the region – imported reconditioned vehicles Biomass burning is also a major problem and has been found to be comparable to industrial pollution Air Pollution Issues

63. Like Malé, APINA carries out activities on all aspects of the air pollution policy cycle including: Emission inventories (similar progress to Malé, linked to ministries) Atmospheric transfer modelling Deposition Monitoring Impacts (health, crops, ecosystems, corrosion) Rapid urban and integrated assessment BAQ Sub-Saharan Africa (Training and Ministerial Meeting in Nairobi July 2006) Decision making support information APINA Activities

64. RAPIDC Air Pollution Networks APCEN – Air Pollution Crop Effects Network CAD – Composition of Asian Deposition CORNET – Corrosion Network APMA – Air Pollution in the Mega Cities of Asia

65. APCEN – Air Pollution Crop Effects Network Global network linking air pollution and crop effects scientists Methods build upon successful UNECE Network activties Project activities: Using Indicator Plants to assess risk of ozone pollution Chemical protectant studies Coordination of exposure experiments

66. APCEN – Status of pilot studies Biomonitoring study in Potchefstroom, South Africa, using ozone-sensitive and ozone-resistant genotypes of white clover terminated in April 2006 Main results: Clover plants grew well in southern African climate and showed slight ozone-induced foliar injury

67. APCEN network meeting Assessing air pollution impacts on crop productivity September 19-21, 2006,Stellenbosch, South Africa To discuss and agree protocols for biomonitoring campaign To evaluate the status quo of APCEN and develop strategies how to expand and link the network globally To transfer experience in assessments of air pollution impacts on crops and air quality management tools between regions; IGAC satellite session To bring together regional air pollution experts, decision-makers and other appropriate stakeholders to ensure development of suitable pollution abatement strategies and discuss priorities for future

68. CAD – Composition of Asian Deposition The CAD project is divided into two components: 1)Network development and best practice 2)Training scientists from Asia Activities: Linkages with DEBITS, Malé Declaration, EANET, and ABC Inter-calibration with EANET program Passive sampler inter-comparison study CAD Workshop at IICT, Hyderabad (Dec 2006)

69. CAD – Composition of Asian Deposition Outcomes: Measurements are now being initiated at two new sites in ecologically sensitive parts of northern India: Pant Nagar and Jorhat An Indian Research scholar has been employed in the CAD project and several student projects, including one PhD, are being carried out using CAD data A comprehensive review of Indian deposition data and their interpretation has been published (Kulshrestha et al., 2005: Atmospheric Environment 39, 7403-7419). This review is to large degree based on CAD activities during the past several years

70. CORNET – Corrosion Network Global network of scientists looking into the impact of ar pollution on the corrosion of materials Exposing standard samples on racks Network of sites across Asia and southern Africa ii.Exposure of kits iii. Stock at risk study

71. CORNET - progress Joint Corrosion and Health training for the Malé Declaration and International CORNET meeting, Bangkok October 2006 The trend analysis started in the summer of 2005 and will be completed in connection with the 4-year samples. The purpose of the trend exposure is to: - establish trends in pollution and corrosion - transfer knowledge on evaluation of specimens to the region

72. Corrosion Results Degradation of painted steel after 1 and 2 years of exposure

73. Corrosion Results Recession of limestone after 1 and 2 years of exposure

74. APMA – Air Pollution in the Mega Cities of Asia Support AQM strategy formation in selected Asian cities is currently being identified. The benchmarking report prepared for publication and will be published by Earthscan in 2006. Development of an AQM information system (AMIS- Asia) for Asian cities to facilitate the transfer of AQM and best practice to support decision-making processes and strategy formation.

75. The Future: Ownership RAPIDC will not be coordinated by SEI in the future (2008-) Direct contract between Sida and Malé Secretariat SEI can continue to advise as required by countries/secretariat Countries have to implement activities. RAPIDC can only provide technical assistance Priorities: Consolidation of Monitoring Network and activities Implementation of emission inventories and scenarios Implementation of impact studies Linkage to other regional initiatives

76. Participants at 1 st APINA emissions inventory workshop held in Blantyre, Malawi, 19th – 23rd February 2006

77. Preliminary emissions inventory results for 3 pollutants by sector for Zimbabwe (Inventory year 2000).

78. Future Plans Develop specialist ‘Centre for emissions estimation’ for Malé Declaration to coordinate emissions inventory activities to merge national inventories these into a regional inventory to coordinate reporting and compile regional overview reports to implement emissions scenarios (e.g. for 2025, 2050) to organize capacity building: training workshops, work-exchange visits, to coordinate activities within the atmospheric modelling centre (where MATCH model is set up) etc.

79. 79 Backcasting Source: Löwendahl/ www.goteborg2050.nu ”Not sustainable” SUSTAINABILITY TIME Alternative scenarios Images of the Future ”Sustainable” Processes for change Strategy work Planning Action plans Description of present state Trend analysis 1 2 3 4 1.Present state and trend analysis 2.Envisage limits for sustainability 3.Scenario Development (possible and desirable) 4.“How do we get there?” strategies, planning and processes for change

80. Where to from here? 1.Build from theory into practice 2.Find mechanisms to cement knowledge in key organisations 3.Forming direct and meaningful access to decision-makers 4.Integration of tools fed by real regional data

81. Risk assessment using Indicator Plants Visible injury (white rash of spots at edge of leaf) on leaf of sensitive white clover clones at pilot site in South Africa (Smit, pers. comm.) Dose-response relationship for white-clover (from Europe), the diamond indicates the sensitive/resistant biomass ratio from South African pilot study and the dotted line an estimate of the ambient AOT40 level according to European data (Smit, pers. comm.)

82. Bio-monitoring and Chemical Protectant Studies Structural formula for N-(2-(2-oxo-1- imadazolidinyl)ethyl)-N’-phenylurea abbreviated as EDU for ethylenediurea EDU suppresses acute and chronic ozone injury on a variety of plants under ambient O 3 conditions (Godzik & Manning, 1998) Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore, Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid) Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

83. RAPIDC Approach

84. Modelling for IIAS EDGAR emissions; 1°×1° resolution TRACE-P emissions; 0.5°×0.5° resolution Malé monitoring stations New national emission inventory Completed simulations

85. Corrosion Impact Activities i. Exposing standard samples on racks to determine an absolute measure of corrosion and develop dose- response relationships Need to monitor SO 2, NO 2, O 3, HNO 3 and PM (total deposited) bi-monthly rain pH and amount (weekly) Need a met station measuring T o C and RH

86. RAPIDC Programme Purpose ‘to facilitate the development of agreements and/or protocols to implement measures which prevent and control air pollution through promoting international cooperation and developing scientific information for the policy process’

87. Emission inventory Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric transport Pollutant deposition or concentration Monitoring Impacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems Driving forces and scenarios Policies for pollutant prevention and control Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy process