1. Export Controls—What’s next? Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security Export Controls – What’s Next? Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security

2. HPC EXPORT CONTROLS US and Wassenaar partners maintain controls on HPCs for exports to certain countries (i.e., China, Russia and Pakistan) National security benefits of controlling HPCs: -- Prevents transfers to military end-users -- Visibility into others use of computers for their national security work

3. Previous Control Metric Composite Theoretical Performance, measured in millions of theoretical operations per second (MTOPS), used for export controls since 1991 As a result of recent advances in computer and processor architectures, MTOPS: -- Increasingly less effective at ranking relative HPC performance -- Understates relative performance of vector HPCs (e.g., Cray X1 series) -- Difficult to calculate -- Decreasing relevance to HPCs and national security related work

4. IMPACT OF RAISING MTOPS THRESHOLD 300K 500K 32-way 3.2 GHz Xeon 32-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 128-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon 72-way 1.7 GHz Power4 64-way Cray X1 512-way USPARC3 512-way USPARC4 128-way Cray X1 128-way 2 GHz Power5 256-way 2 GHz Power5 1024-way USPARC4 384-way 1.5 GHz IA64 32-way SGI Altix 128-way SGI Altix 512-way Power3 64-way NEC SX-6 No License Req’d License Req’d 64-way Cray XD-1 128-way Cray XD-1 190K 64-way Cray X1E 32-way NEC SX-8 64-way NEC SX-8 128-way Cray X1E Future Game Consoles

5. Current HPC Export Controls 71 FR 20876 (April 24, 2006) Replaced the CTP formula with the APP formula –The APP formula is much easier to calculate and addressed the shortcomings of CTP Changed the licensing threshold from 190,000 MTOPS to 0.75 WT

6. CURRENT CONTROL METRIC Adjusted Peak Performance (APP): -- Measured in Weighted TeraFLOPS (WT) -- Metric derived from existing industry standard -- Simple to calculate Differentiates between high-end, special order HPCs (vector processors) and commodity off-the-shelf systems: -- Protects high-end proprietary HPCs used by DoD and DoE for most advanced R&D and simulation -- Significantly relaxes controls on “commodity” products (e.g., desktop personal computers and entertainment devices)

7. WT Values of the Top500 Source: Nov 2004 list

8. IMPACT OF APP CONTROL METRIC 1 1.5 0.75 32-way 3.2 GHz Xeon 32-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 128-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA 64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon72-way 1.7 GHz Power4 64-way Cray X1 512-way USPARC3 512-way USPARC4 128-way Cray X1 128-way 2 GHz Power5 256-way 2 GHz Power5 1024-way USPARC4 384-way 1.5 GHz IA64 32-way SGI Altix 128-way SGI Altix 512-way Power3 64-way NEC SX-6 128-way Cray XD-1 256-way Cray XD-1 64-way Cray X1E 512-way Cray XD-1 32-way NEC SX-8 64-way NEC SX-8 128-way Cray X1E No License Req’d License Req’d Future Game Consoles

9. WA Results Level Hardware (4A003) Software (4D001) Technology (4E001) Digital Computer, Electronic Assemblies Development and Production Use Development and Production Use Basic List 0.75 WT ↑ 190,000 MTOPS 0.04 WT ↑ 75,000 MTOPS 0.75 WT ↑ 190,000 MTOPS 0.04 WT ↑ 75,000 MTOPS 0.75 WT ↑ 190,000 MTOPS Sensitive List 0.1 WT ↑ 190,000 MTOPS 0.1 WT ↑ 190,000 MTOPS

10. What’s next? What’s Next?

11. HPC Performance Historical Perspective Source: IDA, MCTP Moore’s Law

12. Observations In three years, 25 th -ranked system is off the Top500. HPC performance growth greater than Moore’s Law => ability to connect multiple processors continues to grow. Making efficient use of multiple processors has not grown as fast.

13. 1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Top500 Ranking Number of “Clusters” Represented Distribution of “Clusters” on Top500 80

14. Growth and Shake-out in Top 500? Source: IDA, MCTP

15. Observations From the June 2005 Top500 Vector machines comprise 3.6% of the Top500, down from 31.6% in June 1995. Over 75% of the systems use general-purpose interconnection fabric. Clusters account for 60% of the Top500--fairly evenly distributed across the list. There may have been a shake-out in suppliers and self-assembly. Significant share of systems produced outside of Japan and US.

16. Prognosis Increasing reliance on COTS components. Only governments (Japan and US) support non- COTS development. Peak performance will reach one petaflops well before 2010. Sustained performance may reach 1 P by 2010.

17. TOP 500 LIST DATA Moore’s Law is not a linear relationship. PDR CTP APP