1. Resilient Forests Steven W. Koehn, Director / State Forester Maryland DNR Forest Service Governors Commission on Sustainable Forestry Annapolis, MD July 20, 2005 Managing for Productivity, Health, and Resilience in the Face of Pervasive Change

2. What Well Cover State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

3. The Whole Forest View All Forests: from urban forests and tree farms to parks and wilderness All Forests: from urban forests and tree farms to parks and wilderness All Forest Products: from wood and water to wild things and wild places All Forest Products: from wood and water to wild things and wild places All Forest Practices: from preservation and protection to restoration and production All Forest Practices: from preservation and protection to restoration and production All Forest Uses: from recreation and learning to jobs and economic vitality All Forest Uses: from recreation and learning to jobs and economic vitality All Forest Values: from carbon stores and spiritual retreats to sources of life and cultural heritage All Forest Values: from carbon stores and spiritual retreats to sources of life and cultural heritage

4. SF Vision for Forests … Sustain and enrich human well being through diverse values, uses, products and services; Sustain and enrich human well being through diverse values, uses, products and services; Managed and conserved to meet changing needs based on local knowledge plus ever- improving science and technologies; Managed and conserved to meet changing needs based on local knowledge plus ever- improving science and technologies; Serve current and future generations in sustaining our communities and rich cultural heritage. Serve current and future generations in sustaining our communities and rich cultural heritage.

5. Forests that … Deliver high quality water Deliver high quality water Sustainably meet domestic needs for forest-based resources Sustainably meet domestic needs for forest-based resources Reward owners/stewards with multiple benefits Reward owners/stewards with multiple benefits Perpetuate biological and cultural diversity Perpetuate biological and cultural diversity Ameliorate impacts of human activities Ameliorate impacts of human activities Grow in extent, productivity, resilience Grow in extent, productivity, resilience Are managed for distinct local capabilities & values Are managed for distinct local capabilities & values Restore human spirit and stewardship ethic Restore human spirit and stewardship ethic Bring people together for common purpose Bring people together for common purpose

6. Lands of Many Values State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

7. Forests are Sources of Life 1. Clean water and air 2. Abundant fish and wildlife 3. Cultural heritage 4. Climate and carbon 5. Recreation and aesthetics 6. Wood and fiber 7. Non-wood forest products 8. Jobs and personal identity 9. Wealth and revenues

8. Global Forest Context State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

9. Global Forces = Change Population growth: 6.3 Bil. in 2003 to ~ 8 Bil. in 2050 Population growth: 6.3 Bil. in 2003 to ~ 8 Bil. in 2050 Technology breakthroughs: steady advances + surprises Technology breakthroughs: steady advances + surprises Political instability: local to global, ballot measures to wars Political instability: local to global, ballot measures to wars Trade issues: barriers/subsidies, free vs fair Trade issues: barriers/subsidies, free vs fair Restructuring in forest sector: global integration, dynamics in timberland ownership, ag-land afforestation Restructuring in forest sector: global integration, dynamics in timberland ownership, ag-land afforestation Widening rich-poor gap: happening everywhere Widening rich-poor gap: happening everywhere Raising of green consciousness: more than air/water Raising of green consciousness: more than air/water Consumption growth: space, water, fossil fuels, food, wood, minerals Consumption growth: space, water, fossil fuels, food, wood, minerals Climate change: yes but variable, uncertain regional effects Climate change: yes but variable, uncertain regional effects Non-native invasive species + explosive natives Non-native invasive species + explosive natives

10. Pervasive Change Need for continual learning and adaptation

11. Forest area: ~ 9.6 Billion ac; 50-66% loss since 1600 AD Forest area: ~ 9.6 Billion ac; 50-66% loss since 1600 AD Forest loss: ~ 23 Million ac/yr in 1990s Forest loss: ~ 23 Million ac/yr in 1990s Population + Economic Growth = Forest Loss Population + Economic Growth = Forest Loss But not always: - 30 mil ac/yr in tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr in non-tropics But not always: - 30 mil ac/yr in tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr in non-tropics Demands for forest benefits ever growing Demands for forest benefits ever growing Water quality, quantity: biggest future forest issue Water quality, quantity: biggest future forest issue Wood use: range = flat near term to < 0.5%/yr long term Wood use: range = flat near term to < 0.5%/yr long term Biodiversity conservation: yes but public still bewildered after 20 years Biodiversity conservation: yes but public still bewildered after 20 years Carbon storage: how much, trees + products, market uncertainty Carbon storage: how much, trees + products, market uncertainty Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses: highly variable by ownership Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses: highly variable by ownership Global Forest Trends

12. Some Global Leaders Percent of World Share UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2002 data

13. Global Plantation Forests Percent of World Share UN FAO 2005: 2000 data

14. Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.6 BM 3 but flat over last 20 Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.6 BM 3 but flat over last 20 Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.8 BM 3 and growing Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.8 BM 3 and growing Ind. wood use could increase < 33% by 2050: from 1.6 - 2.1 BM 3 Ind. wood use could increase < 33% by 2050: from 1.6 - 2.1 BM 3 ~ 75% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by mid century or earlier (Sedjo and others) ~ 75% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by mid century or earlier (Sedjo and others) ~ 31% of global solid wood consumption crosses an international boundary from tree to product; most likely to increase ~ 31% of global solid wood consumption crosses an international boundary from tree to product; most likely to increase US imports 30% of solid wood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts (81% growth since 1991) US imports 30% of solid wood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts (81% growth since 1991) US uses 30% of worlds solid wood products; largest per capita US uses 30% of worlds solid wood products; largest per capita US forest and wood choices drive global wood market US forest and wood choices drive global wood market UN FAO 2005: 2002 data + Perez-Garcia on future demand Global & U.S. Wood Use

15. US in Global Context Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2003 data)

16. Sustainability State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

17. Sustainability Balance among environmental, economic and cultural aspirations Balance among environmental, economic and cultural aspirations Equity across societal sectors and generations Equity across societal sectors and generations Engagement of people in social choices that affect them Engagement of people in social choices that affect them Adaptability to pervasive change Adaptability to pervasive change

18. Sustainable Forestry The suite of policies, plans and practices that seek to protect, produce, and perpetuate forest ecosystems for the values, uses, products, and services desired by communities and landowners for this and future generations NCSSF 2005

19. Sustainability Not possible without continual adaptation to change

20. Fitting Forest to Purpose State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

21. Breadth of Sustainable Forest Management Sustainable forest management varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Sustainable forest management varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Forest purposes: Forest purposes: Wood and fiber production Wood and fiber production Multiple resource values/uses Multiple resource values/uses Reserves, nature preservation Reserves, nature preservation Urban and community forests Urban and community forests

22. Wood Production Forests Most of worlds future wood will come from planted forests: Most of worlds future wood will come from planted forests: ~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050 ~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050 ~ 10% or less of global forest area ~ 10% or less of global forest area Primary purposes: Primary purposes: Grow trees for wood, fiber Grow trees for wood, fiber Increase forest value to owner Increase forest value to owner Management challenges: Management challenges: Thrive in global markets Thrive in global markets Increase wood yield: > 2x over natural Increase wood yield: > 2x over natural Reduce environmental impacts Reduce environmental impacts Improve wood quality, consistency Improve wood quality, consistency Produce high return on investment Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Maintain social license to operate

23. Who Owns Prod. Forest? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 National Forest Other Public Forest Industry Family Forests Million Acres by Owner 1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20 Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6 Site Class in Ft 3 /Ac/Yr

24. Multi-resource Forests Most of the worlds accessible forests have multiple resource purposes Most of the worlds accessible forests have multiple resource purposes ~ 40% of global forest area eventually ~ 40% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Primary purposes: Meet diverse landowner objectives Meet diverse landowner objectives Increase forest value to owner(s) Increase forest value to owner(s) Challenges: Challenges: Optimize multi-resource outcomes Optimize multi-resource outcomes Produce multiple benefits for acceptable costs Produce multiple benefits for acceptable costs Differentiate products Differentiate products Finance non-market benefits Finance non-market benefits Finance management Finance management

25. Reserve Forests Parks, wilderness, natural areas: Parks, wilderness, natural areas: ~ 12% worldwide in 2000 ~ 12% worldwide in 2000 ~ 50% of global forest area eventually ~ 50% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Primary purposes: Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, wild ecosystems Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, wild ecosystems Recreation, cultural uses Recreation, cultural uses Management c hallenges: Management c hallenges: Minimize human impacts Minimize human impacts Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution, explosive natives Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution, explosive natives Achieve goals for least costs Achieve goals for least costs Finance management Finance management

26. Urban, Community Forests Where 80% of the people live Where 80% of the people live Primary purposes: Primary purposes: Attractive communities, neighborhoods Attractive communities, neighborhoods Conserve resources: water, energy Conserve resources: water, energy Increase property values Increase property values Backyard wildlife habitats Backyard wildlife habitats Management challenges: Management challenges: Safety, infrastructure impacts Safety, infrastructure impacts Minimize sprawl Minimize sprawl Minimize invasive species escapes Minimize invasive species escapes

27. Reserve Forests: Reserve Forests: Mostly federal, some state, tribal, private Multi-resource Forests: Multi-resource Forests: Mostly state, tribal, some family, some federal Wood Production Forests: Wood Production Forests: Mostly industry, family, some state, tribal Urban, Community Forests: Urban, Community Forests: Forests where people live Social Benefits Economic Benefits ForestSustainability Environmental Benefits

28. Ownership Matters Wood Production Multi-resourceReserve Industry, TIMO Private, large Family, NGO Tribes State Federal * * * Streamside zones, leave trees, habitats as mini or micro reserves

29. Maryland Forest Owners

30. Leading the Way State Foresters vision for forests State Foresters vision for forests Forest values Forest values American forests in a global context American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The work ahead

31. Challenges 1.Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values Sustain US forests in face of global forces, urban sprawl Sustain US forests in face of global forces, urban sprawl Meet peoples forest resource needs efficiently Meet peoples forest resource needs efficiently Improve management and conservation efficiency Improve management and conservation efficiency Restore and sustain health of at-risk forests Restore and sustain health of at-risk forests Create new knowledge and technologies: Create new knowledge and technologies: Sciences and products for progressive sustainability Sciences and products for progressive sustainability Products and practices innovations Products and practices innovations Enhance lifelong learning and extended education Enhance lifelong learning and extended educationAND

32. Address Demand -- Consumption Ethic Intelligent consumption and production of renewable natural resources is key to sustaining quality of life; Overuse, non-renewable substitutes, transfer effects degrade ecosystems somewhere; Prudent choices consider full impacts, the future, and the entire life cycle of resources – Domestic Renewables Win!

33. Restoration Challenge Defining forest health Defining forest health Normal stresses Normal stresses Choices Choices Integrated strategies Integrated strategies Essentials for success Essentials for success Roles for science Roles for science Strategic decision tree Strategic decision tree

34. Threats to Forest Health Uncharacteristic fire Uncharacteristic fire Invasive species and explosive natives Invasive species and explosive natives Climate change and drought Climate change and drought Residential encroachment Residential encroachment

35. Healthy Forest? Functions as intended according to landowner goals, state and/or federal, tribal policies Functions as intended according to landowner goals, state and/or federal, tribal policies Delivers high quality water in quantities and seasons that sustain ecosystems and people Delivers high quality water in quantities and seasons that sustain ecosystems and people Sustains native fish and wildlife compatible with primary purpose(s) Sustains native fish and wildlife compatible with primary purpose(s) Resilient to future stresses, e.g., drought, insects, diseases, storms, fires, invasive species, explosive natives Resilient to future stresses, e.g., drought, insects, diseases, storms, fires, invasive species, explosive natives Has community support to produce the array of values, uses, products and services desired by owners Has community support to produce the array of values, uses, products and services desired by owners

36. Some Stresses are Normal Fires, disease, storms, landslides are natural processes; vital to renewal of productivity, resilience Fires, disease, storms, landslides are natural processes; vital to renewal of productivity, resilience But some watershed conditions exceed range of natural processes; impede water quality or create unacceptable vulnerability to extreme stresses But some watershed conditions exceed range of natural processes; impede water quality or create unacceptable vulnerability to extreme stresses Under what conditions should we intervene to solve problems, alter ecosystem conditions or trajectory of recovery? Under what conditions should we intervene to solve problems, alter ecosystem conditions or trajectory of recovery?

37. What are the Options? Let nature take its course Let nature take its course Intervene to reduce or eliminate stresses Intervene to reduce or eliminate stresses Stop pollution, stop practices that impede health Stop pollution, stop practices that impede health Intervene to restore resilience before extreme stress Intervene to restore resilience before extreme stress Affect species, stocking, sizes, distributions, understory Affect species, stocking, sizes, distributions, understory Intervene after events to restore health or influence resilience to stress and the trajectory and rate of ecosystem recovery Intervene after events to restore health or influence resilience to stress and the trajectory and rate of ecosystem recovery Remove threats to desired future conditions Remove threats to desired future conditions Affect species, stocking, competing vegetation, herbivory Affect species, stocking, competing vegetation, herbivory

38. Integrated Strategy Assess need for intervention and priorities at site, watershed and landscape scales – collaborative, community engagement Assess need for intervention and priorities at site, watershed and landscape scales – collaborative, community engagement Target actions/treatments strategically for highest success, lowest failure; lowest cost, highest benefits Target actions/treatments strategically for highest success, lowest failure; lowest cost, highest benefits Design actions for learning – adaptive management Design actions for learning – adaptive management Link restoration actions to complementary goals: Link restoration actions to complementary goals: Water, fish, wildlife, wood yield, aesthetics, recreation, carbon Water, fish, wildlife, wood yield, aesthetics, recreation, carbon Energy, transportation, jobs, wood-based products Energy, transportation, jobs, wood-based products Monitor and research to reduce costs, increase benefits Monitor and research to reduce costs, increase benefits Communicate, learn, adapt – close the loop on continual learning Communicate, learn, adapt – close the loop on continual learning

39. What is Needed for Success? Ready access to contemporary science, relevant information, tools Ready access to contemporary science, relevant information, tools Ability to assess and act strategically at landscape/watershed scale Ability to assess and act strategically at landscape/watershed scale Financial resources, social capital for intervention Financial resources, social capital for intervention Ability to accomplish multiple objectives and create wealth from treatments to cover some costs of restoring health, resilience Ability to accomplish multiple objectives and create wealth from treatments to cover some costs of restoring health, resilience Integration of science with management and local knowledge for place-based problem solving, adaptive learning Integration of science with management and local knowledge for place-based problem solving, adaptive learning Innovation in work processes and new products Innovation in work processes and new products Bias for barrier-busting boldness – risks and costs increase with delay; timidity could = failure on goals Bias for barrier-busting boldness – risks and costs increase with delay; timidity could = failure on goals

40. Does Science Have All the Answers? No way!

41. Can We Get There Without Science? No way!

42. A Strategic Decision Tree Is policy/plan clear on direction for area in question? Is policy/plan clear on direction for area in question? If no, messy gridlock; clarify policy/plan If no, messy gridlock; clarify policy/plan Will nature deliver what policy/plan calls for? Will nature deliver what policy/plan calls for? If yes, work is through If yes, work is through When restoration interventions are needed/warranted When restoration interventions are needed/warranted What kind? What kind? Where? Where? How frequent is the need? How frequent is the need? How to pay for restoration work? How to pay for restoration work? Public $$ – but state and federal discretionary $$ declining Public $$ – but state and federal discretionary $$ declining Revenues generated from by-products of restoration work Revenues generated from by-products of restoration work Savings from reduced emergency spending Savings from reduced emergency spending Carbon credits Carbon credits Other: conservation incentives, recreation? Other: conservation incentives, recreation?

43. The Case for Management Wood Production Forests Wood Production Forests Sustain productivity and increase value as forests Sustain productivity and increase value as forests Compete in global markets Compete in global markets Excellence in commodity woods Excellence in commodity woods Value-added differentiated wood and wood-based products Value-added differentiated wood and wood-based products Sustain resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Sustain resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Multi-resource Forests Multi-resource Forests Joint resource production Joint resource production Diversify revenues to finance management: wood + recreation + ecosystem services Diversify revenues to finance management: wood + recreation + ecosystem services Diversity, resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Diversity, resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Reserve Forests Reserve Forests Restore wildness and natural processes Restore wildness and natural processes Contain human impacts Contain human impacts

44. University Roles … Educate a highly skilled forest/mill workforce and future forest scientists and teachers Educate a highly skilled forest/mill workforce and future forest scientists and teachers Create a stronger science base for all SFM systems; improve regulatory efficiency Create a stronger science base for all SFM systems; improve regulatory efficiency

45. Public Forestry Agency Roles… Innovations for improved market and environmental performance of all US forests and forest products Innovations for improved market and environmental performance of all US forests and forest products Innovations to increase productivity and sustainability of US forest resources and forest products Innovations to increase productivity and sustainability of US forest resources and forest products Educate a more knowledgeable, responsible citizenry Educate a more knowledgeable, responsible citizenry Promote prudent policies, empowered communities Promote prudent policies, empowered communities Advocate for diverse, productive, resilient forests and associated economies and human communities Advocate for diverse, productive, resilient forests and associated economies and human communities

46. Future Forest Resilience? Its up to our generation to choose and act if we want to deliver healthy, productive, wealthy, and resilient forests to our children and grandchildren