1. Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptation to Climate Change: Southeast Asian perspectives Daniel Murdiyarso Department of Geophysics and Meteorology Bogor Agricultural University AIACC Asia-Pacific Region Open Meeting Bangkok, 24 March 2003

2. Outline From Science to Key Policy Questions The Opportunities The Barriers The Strategies Conclusions

3. What to adapt - impacts on rice yields

4. What to adapt - water resources

5. What to adapt - human health IPCC (1998)

6. What to adapt - coral bleaching Wilkinson et al., 2000

7. Key policy questions - Dichotomy? To adapt or to mitigate? - opportunity costs To conserve or to develop? - tradeoffs Local or global agenda? - international treaties Who pay and how much? - rewarding mechanisms Who can participate? - governance

8. The Opportunities Back to the Convention (FCCC Art. 4.8 and 4.9 vs KP Art. 3.14) GEF and Special Climate Change Fund - increased and predictable to ‘compensate’ Equity, NOT complementary Avoid free-rider problems

9. The Barriers Adaptation cost to attack the impacts - is hardly met Mitigation cost to attack the causes - is more expensive Adaptation under UNFCCC is a non-binding mechanism Human/institution adaptive capacities are low

10. The Strategies Re-negotiate adaptation fund - legally binding? Develop efficient ‘compensation’ mechanisms Enhance community participation/ preparedness

11. Conclusions Resilience of most sectors in Southeast Asia is very poor The capacity to cope varies with country - make the government works for the most vulnerable group of community For equity reasons - Adaptation Fund should get more attention in the next round of climate negotiations Effective adaptation strategies require local involvement and inclusion of community perceptions