1. APCA Importance of Tennessee Agriculture Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center 2010 Tennessee Farmland Legacy Conference Pigeon Forge, TN November 11, 2010

2. APCA Here Is What We Are Going To Do Changes in population, per capita income and other characteristics Relative importance of TN Ag and Forestry Changes in level and sources of Ag income Changes in farm numbers and land in farms Areas in TN with high quality farmland and its relative rate of development How does TN Ag land conversion compare with other states? Time lapse of Davidson County development

3. APCA Metro and Nonmetro Counties

4. APCA Population Growth 2000-2009 Tennessee’s Population grew 10.7% between 2000 and 2009 to 6.3 million (US Population grew 9.1% to 307 million) Source: US Census Bureau

5. APCA 2008 Poverty Rate Tennessee had a 15.5% poverty rate in 2008 Source: US Census Bureau

6. APCA Retirement Destination Counties “Number of residents 60 and older grew by 15 percent or more between 1990 and 2000 due to in-migration” (ERS, USDA) 7 Metro 11 NonMetro

7. APCA Per Capita Income in the U.S. and Tennessee, 1969-2004 (In 2004 Dollars) Map prepared by Rural Policy Institute (RUPRI)

8. APCA Per Capita Income in Metro and Nonmetro Counties, 1969-2004 (In 2004 Dollars) Map Prepared by RUPRI

9. APCA Direct Economic Activity Percentage of Economic Activity (Value of Production) from Direct Agriculture and Forestry, 2006 8.9% Statewide Source: Data and map from Menard et al. March 2009, UT Dept of Ag. Econ.

10. APCA Total Economic Activity Percentage of Total Economic Activity (direct and secondary) from Total Agriculture and Forestry, 2006 16.2% Statewide Source: Data and map from Menard et al. March 2009, UT Dept of Ag. Econ.

11. APCA Crop and Livestock Shares of Cash Receipts Livestock 51.4% Crops 48.6% Livestock 40.0% Crops 60.0% 2000 Crops $0.936 Bil. Livestock $0.991 Bil. 2009 Crops $1.704 Bil. Livestock $1.137 Bil. Source: USDA ERS Between 2000 and 2009 Total of Crop and Livestock Cash Receipts increased from $1.9 to $2.8 billion or 47%

12. APCA Percentage of Cash Receipts 2000 Cattle & Calves 21.6% Broilers 11.9% Dairy 10.0% Other Livestock 7.9% Nursery 10.6% Soybeans 6.4% Cotton 4.2% Corn 5.7% Tobacco 10.4% Other Crops 8.7% Wheat 2.5% 2009 Cattle & Calves 14.9% Broilers 15.6% Dairy 4.5% Other Livestock 5.0% Nursery 10.3% Soybeans 19.9% Cotton 5.1% Corn 8.8% Tobacco 3.8% Other Crops 8.4% Wheat 3.7% All Livestock 51.4% All Crops 48.6% All Livestock 40.0% All Crops 60.0% Source: USDA ERS

13. APCA Tennessee Net Farm Income Million Dollars Net Farm Income Less Government Payments Net Farm Income Source: USDA ERS

14. APCA Percentage Change in Number of Farms Percentage Change between 2002 to 2007 Source: US Agricultural Census Tennessee’s number of farms declined 10.5% between 2002 and 2007 to 79 thousand farms

15. APCA Percentage Change in Land in Farms Percentage Change between 2002 to 2007 Source: US Agricultural Census Tennessee’s land in farms declined by 6.5% between 2000 and 2009 to 11 million acres

16. APCA Percentage Change in Land in Farms Percentage Change between 2002 to 2007 Source: US Agricultural Census

17. APCA High-Quality Farmland & Development Areas Source: American Farmland Trust Using Data from USDA Natural Resources Inventory, 2006

18. APCA Where Does TN Rank? Acres of Ag Land Converted 2002 to 2007 1.Texas ( 658,700 acres) 2.Florida (322,800 acres) 3.California (312,400 acres) 4.Arizona (250,300 acres) 5.Colorado (139,000 acres) 6.Tennessee (125,600 acres) North Carolina (10 th ); Georgia (13 th )

19. APCA Where Does TN Rank? Percent of Ag Land Converted 2002 to 2007 1.Rhode Island ( 7.19%) 2.Delaware (3.51%) 3.Florida (3.28%) 4.New Jersey (2.79%) 5.Maryland (1.91%) 10. Tennessee (1.31%) North Carolina (9 th ); Georgia (10 th )

20. APCA Davidson County Development Through Time Source: Summary Data and Map courtesy of Cho Seong-Hoon, UT Dept. of Agr.

21. APCA Davidson County Development Through Time Source: Summary Data and Map courtesy of Cho Seong- Hoon, UT Dept. of Agr.

22. APCA Davidson County Development Through Time Source: Summary Data and Map courtesy of Cho Seong- Hoon, UT Dept. of Agr.

23. APCA Davidson County Development Through Time Source: Summary Data and Map courtesy of Cho Seong- Hoon, UT Dept. of Agr.

24. APCA Davidson County Development Through Time Source: Summary Data and Map courtesy of Cho Seong-Hoon, UT Dept. of Agr.

25. APCA Thank You

26. APCA To receive an electronic version of our weekly ag policy column send an email to: dray@utk.edu requesting to be added to APAC’s Policy Pennings listserv Weekly Policy Column