1. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC Exposure to GEC

2. From Coping strategies to Adaptation strategies Coping strategies short term and local scale –E.g. eating less, selling a cow, keeping girls home from school, accepting food aid, planting later than ‘normal’ Adaptation: longer term and higher (broader) scale –E.g. changing staple food preference, moving to the city permanently, switching to commercial crops with irrigation

3. For long term and regional or national adaptation, need enabling institutions and policies Environmental: water infrastructure, grazing rules Crops: input subsidies, market access Social: school lunches, government safety nets Economic: water pricing policy, trade preferences ………

4. Increasing adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerability to stressors StressorVulnerabilityAdaptive strategy Water quantity stress Few drought tolerant crops with market value Increase groundwater? Open markets for new crops? Low human capital as result of HIV/AIDS Barrier to institutional reform and learning Educate youth? Make drug treatment cheaper? Low political integration Barrier to regional trade and economic growth SADC and NEPAD?

5. Multiple stressors, multiple adaptation pathways HIV/ AIDS incidence, Low prices for raw agric product Poor terms of trade Late and poor rains, Low agric biodiversity Low household income Low food produced Malnutrition Question: what is the best adaptation strategy?

6. Multiple strategies and multiple levels (local, national, regional) To reduce malnutrition: –Lower HIV rates in one area? Nationally? –Increase nutritional value of food: by promoting alternative crops nationally? Locally? (what about markets?) or with commercial supplements? From local or international sources? –Reduce water borne diseases?

7. Institutions and policies (and hence reforms or changes) can work at cross-purposes E.g. National policy to promote sorghum can hurt prices for traditional sorghum region E.g. local policy to increase access to irrigation can affect neighbouring water supply Low educational capacity locally can limit national environmental management