1. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 GEMS RG Global reactive gases monitoring and forecast subproject Lead: Guy Brasseur, MPI Hamburg

2. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Image from Fourmilab Earth Viewer... Four times daily three-dimensional global distributions with a horizontal resolution of 50km providing initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models modes and magnitudes of intercontinental pollution transport magnitude and location of STE ozone transport

3. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Prediction vs. Monitoring Forecast: daily seasonal Extreme events vs. accumulated exposure Monitoring: Policy evaluation Climate Change Accuracy and stability

4. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Air pollution is global! Smoke from fires in Siberia clearly visible on satellite image. Once around the world in 10 days! NAAPS smoke prediction A. Stohl, CO tracer prediction Meteosat visible image 27.5.2003

5. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Variability of Surface Ozone Concentrations (Monitoring needs long-term perspective) Emissions (Fossil fuel 1995-1990) Meteorology (May 1993 – May 1997)

6. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Sub project elements Data assimilation (UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES) – whole atmosphere columns, tropospheric columns, OT/LS layers CTM simulations (MOZART, ARPEGE, TM5) Integration/Validation Provision of boundary conditions

7. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (1) Experience with ozone data assimilation at KNMI - Operational ozone assimilation (since 2000) - Ozone and UV forecasting - Reanalysis - 7 years GOME data set - Radiance assimilation Improved ozone retrievals for UV-Vis spectrometers - GOME - SCIAMACHY - OMI - GOME 2 (25 y) - Column, profile; nadir, limb

8. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (2) Near-real-time delivery of ozone data - GOME (SCIAMACHY ?) - OMI (launch 2004, follow-up of TOMS) - High resolution - 13*24 km - Global coverage in 1 day Minor trace-gas retrievals from UV-Vis - Tropospheric (stratospheric) NO 2 : Observation operator, detailed error estimates OMI - high resolution

9. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (3) Dutch TM5 CTM with regional zoom capability - Use of ECMWF meteorological fields to drive CTM - Tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry - Chemistry parametrizations (ozone, methane) - Experience with couplers (PRISM project)

10. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 The MOZART-2 Chemistry Transport Model State-of-the-art CTM including 65 chemical species and ~170 reactions Online version coupled to ECHAM GCM almost ready Soon full coupling to multi-modal aerosol scheme Whole atmosphere (0-250 km) version available

11. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Chemical Weather with MOZART Script chain in place to perform monthly run almost automatically Run from April 2000 – September 2003 available Postprocessing and web interface need to be developed Validation in progress

12. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Time Evolution of Vertical O 3 Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany, Sep. 2002

13. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Time Evolution of Vertical CO Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany, Sep. 2002

14. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Freiburg

15. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Niederzier

16. Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, Hamburg GEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003 Issues Near realtime emission data (in particular biomass burning) Vertical distribution of assimilated columns Interference of multi-species column assimilation on chemistry (thus forecasts) What boundary conditions are required by RegAQ? Validation? Consistency between RG and aerosols (to what degree and when?)