1. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 1 GEMS_Atmosphere in GMES Anthony Hollingsworth

2. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 2 GMES calls in Dec 2002 Topics Dec 2002 Call InstrumentSelection OceanIPMERSEA LandIPGEOLAND Risk ManagementIP- SecurityNoE? ArchitectureSSAHALO GOSIS

3. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 3 GMES calls in Nov 2003 Topics November 2003 CallInstrumentSelection Water ResourcesIPTBD AtmosphereIP Risk ManagementIP SecurityIP

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9. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 9 SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME PRIORITY : FP6-2002-Space-1-GMES Ocean and Marine Applications INTEGRATED PROJECT Annex I - Description of Work Project acronym: MERSEA IP Project full title: Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area Proposal/Contract no.: FP6-502885

10. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 10 MERSEA Work Package 4 Forcing Fields Objectives carry out necessary R&D activities to determine the optimal way of deriving forcing fields from Numerical Weather Prediction outputs (ECMWF analyses and forecasts) to drive the MERSEA global ocean model, and validate it through impact studies using the global ORCA2 mode (task 4.1), carry out necessary R&D activities to improve ECMWF wind stress and turbulent heat fluxes fields using relevant available high resolution satellite observations (scatterometer and microwave radiometer (task 4.2), implement the near real-time access to the ECMWF outputs and the first version of the surface forcing fields production

11. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 11 MERSEA WP7 : Modelling and Assimilation Objectives To perform research and development on physical modelling, ecosystem modelling and data assimilation as required for the operational objectives of MERSEA during the whole life of the project. To provide all the necessary tools (physical model codes, biogeochemical model codes, data assimilation codes) that are required by the MERSEA project to reach its operational objectives. To bring ad hoc scientific innovations into the project and to gather all the relevant European capabilities in order to make sure that operational systems are maintained at the most advanced level thus benefit from the progress achieved in the research community, during the project life-time and beyond.

12. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 12 MERSEA TASK 11.4: SF2: Assessment of the impact of MERSEA-¼ analyses on seasonal forecasts skill Lead: ECMWF, Participants: ECMWF, MF, INGV. Objectives To produce and assess seasonal forecasts using the lower resolution coupled models initialised with the interpolated Mersea-¼ analyses Comparisons of seasonal forecasts using the lower resolution coupled models initialised with other existing analysis systems Description of work Task 11.4.1: The available Mersea-¼ analyses, appropriately interpolated using the interpolation package developed in Task 11.3.1, will be used for initialising the low resolution coupled models. The hindcasts will cover the period for which Mersea-¼ analyses are available. These hindcasts will be assessed similarly to what was done by the FP5 DEMETER project and results compared to those obtained with the same DEMETER project (ECMWF, MF, INGV).

13. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 13 HALO Harmonised coordination of the Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone The programme for the build-up of the GMES pre-operational capabilities includes data delivery processes of observation systems; interoperability and interconnection of the data processing and delivery systems; & organisation and system architecture. Key elements of the Land and Ocean IPs will be dependent on the outputs of the Atmosphere IP. The Atmosphere IP will be dependent on outputs of the Land and Ocean IPs. The HALO SSA will prepare the architecture and system integration for the interacting part of all 3 IPs into the GMES framework, and prepare their joint transition to operational status.

14. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 14 HALO Harmonised coordination of the Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone HALO will optimise the interactions of these Segments of the GMES Backbone by: formulating agreed recommendations to the 3 IPs, and to the GMES Steering Group in the areas of scientific thematic analysis and coordination of observational, modelling and data-assimilation requirements for the interacting parts of the IPs; cross fertilization of scientific thematics leading to an improvement of knowledge, and definition of the overall scientific architecture; identification of shared issues in the areas of data policy implementation, data acquisition, data sharing and data dissemination, leading to proposed candidate solutions; analysis of the candidate solutions, and formulation of recommendations for a coordinated transition to operations of the interacting part of the pre-operational systems developed in the 3 IPs.

15. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 15 HALO will focus on the interactions of Atmosphere, Land, Ocean IPs

16. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 16 HALO Planning: Science Requirements, Candidate Solutions, Recommendations

17. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 17 Study Logic for the industrial studies

18. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 18 Available Text on the Atmosphere IP Number of interactions influences the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere and requires efficient monitoring and assessment. Data required to perform these activities are available from satellites and from in-situ measurements (in the atmosphere and on ground). The objective is the integration and validation of the available results in order to reach a coherent and validated GMES infrastructure serving the user community. Preference will be given to an Integrated Project.

19. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 19 GEMS (ii) Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data GEMS data assimilation projects Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non- reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O (+CO) Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES: Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. Monitor-AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information Cross-Cutting projects SYSTEM-INTEGRATION Integrate the data-assimilation sub- projects in a unified pre-operational system RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS Validate the pre-operational system through observational verification of retrospective analyses for the "EOS - ENVISAT" epoch 2000-2007, and perhaps for the epoch 1947-2007.

20. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 20 GEMS-GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CO Heritage: COCO (FP5) Instruments: AIRS, SCIAMACHY, IASI, OCO Data Mgt R/Tdevelop from COCO Modelling develop from COCO Sources / SinksCurrent Methods + 3D-InVar; variational method using CTM very close to ECMWF model Data Assim. ECMWF & …. Validationbuild on COCO validation team

21. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 21 CO 2 assimilation -Troposphere CO 2 tropospheric columns are being assimilated from AIRS infrared observations. Monthly mean distribution for May 2003

22. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 22 CO2 assimilation - Stratosphere First analysis of stratospheric CO 2 shows Brewer- Dobson type of circulation. Variability is also much smaller than in troposphere.

23. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 23 CO 2 flask observation network

24. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 24 Monitor-AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information Heritage: - Instruments: MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER Data Mgttbd R/T Modelling Sources/ Sinks Data Assim. Validation

25. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 25 Aerosol modelling and assimilation is an emerging issue for NWP HIRS channels sensitive to the surface temperature, lower tropospheric temperature, and moisture are subject to a 0.5 K or more reduction in the brightness temperature during heavy dust loading conditions. (Weaver, Joiner, Ginoux JGR April 2003) Aerosol is the biggest source of error in ECMWF clear-sky radiation computations (JJ Morcrette, pers.comm.)

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27. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 27 GEMSREACTIVE-GASES [ and Forecast Chemical Weather] Deliverables Determine the magnitude and location of stratospheric / tropospheric ozone exchanges Determine the modes and magnitudes of intercontinental transport of ozone and other constituents. Provide global Chemical Weather Forecasts including UV-B forecasts, plus initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather Forecasts. Data Assimilation Approach Stream 1: 4d Var with simplified chemistry to retrieve Ozone (12hr window). Stream 2: Chemical Transport Model uses Atmospheric transport from stream 1 to assimilate / transport up to 50 species. A priori surface flux fields specified from RIVM-EDGAR database Instruments: UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES R/T & Retrievals Modelling Sources / Sinks Data Assim. Validation

28. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 28 Global Monitoring / Forecasting of Reactive Gases: The Chemical Weather Forecast Current operational ozone monitoring capability is a good basis for developing a global capability to monitor reactive gases and associated aerosols 3.1 Integrate chemical modules with weather models, to provide global assimilation & forecasts of the distributions of ozone and its precursors sulphate aerosol other aerosol The global models can drive regional chemistry / air quality models. The cost could be modest at 1 degree resolution Ozone CO

29. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 29 GAW Network of world Stations

30. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth SAC Oct 2003 Slide 30 Current status on GEMS Atmosphere The project is well-targeted The GHG, Aerosol, Integration, Re-analysis sub- projects are of manageable and affordable scope Many institutes are keen to be involved in the reactive gas sub-project, especially on validation If we do the essential work to build the overall system, and support all interested parties for 3 years, then the budget will far exceed the available funds. We are about to survey all interested parties to improve our budget estimates. We may have to restrict participation by validation partners to the latter part of the project.

31. END thank you for your attention!