1. ECMWF involvement in the DRR/SEE programme Conclusion of co-operation agreements with: The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina (agreed by the ECMWF Council, signature outstanding) ? Albania Provision of Metview software to: Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Montenegro the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Sarajevo March 2011

2. ECMWF an independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1975 with 18 Member States 16 Co-operating States Sarajevo March 2011

3. Benefits of becoming a Co-operating State Full access to – ECMWF real-time products – archive data – software tools RMDCN link Commercial use of ECMWF products User support Access to ECMWF Web Server Access to ECMWF training facilities, user meetings Sarajevo March 2011

4. Benefits of becoming a Co-operating State (cont) Visit to and from ECMWF Member of the Advisory Committee for Co-operating States (ACCS) Attend Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), Advisory Committee for Data Policy (ACDP) Recruitment of staff Participation to Optional projects (BC LAM) Sarajevo March 2011

5. MARS Custom DB ODB ArchivesLocal files + What is Metview? Data: – Access – Examine – Manipulate – Plot / Overlay Can be run interactively or in batch Can be easily installed and runs self-contained standalone – From laptops to large servers – No special data servers required Sarajevo March 2011

6. What can Metview visualise? High quality contouring Automatic and user specified titles Automatic legends WMO observation plotting Visualisation of feedback data Display of satellite data Supports geographical and Cartesian projections Allows users to control layout of plots on pages Sarajevo March 2011

7. ECMWF: a component of the EMI Information Systems and services – Analyses, forecasts and support to decision making climate monitoring – Archiving and reanalysis – Methods, tools and know-how – Web, push and pull services. Sarajevo March 2011 National Met Services EUMETSAT(sat ellites) ECMWF EUMETNET/ EUCOS (others) Shared and coordinated observation systems and related services EUMETNET Users/Customers/Decision-makers

8. Summary of the strategy for ECMWF 2006 – 2015 Principal goal Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events Complementary goals To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-inter-annual forecasts To deliver real-time analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System Sarajevo March 2011

9. Global observations UsersNational weather services Sarajevo March 2011 Global weather forecasts

10. Severe Weather ECMWF forecasts are used by its Member States and Co- operating States to provide early warnings of severe weather ECMWF has developed a number of products to assist our users in this work Member States and Co-operating States have also developed their own applications for specific warnings using ECMWF forecasts as input ECMWF supports WMO members by providing products for severe weather forecasting, in particular ECMWF contributes to the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects Sarajevo March 2011

12. Extreme forecast index (EFI) Used as an alarm bell to alert forecasters to possible extreme events Forecasters can then look in more detail Sarajevo March 2011

13. Central Europe heat wave July 2007 Sarajevo March 2011 Daily 2m maximum temperature anomalies summer 2007 Extreme temperatures 15-20 July, over 40°C in many places Forest fires, loss of crops, fatalities from heat stress Strong signal in 15 day forecast

14. Extreme forecast index (EFI) Sarajevo March 2011 Used as an alarm bell to alert forecasters to possible extreme events Forecasters can then look in more detail 15-day and 10-day EFI for 20 July 2007

15. Central and Eastern European floods – July 2008 Sarajevo March 2011 Extreme forecast index for 120-hour total precipitation (EPS from 21 July 2008, valid for period 22–27 July) Several days of heavy rainfall over south-east Europe on 23–28 July 2008 Flooding in parts of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary Over 35,000 people evacuated; 36 people reported killed Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) gives good indication of area of exceptional precipitation. Higher values show stronger signal for extreme event

16. Storm Xynthia – 28 February 2010 47 casualties in France EFI gave a clear early warning Sarajevo March 2011 Day 2-3 Day 3-4

17. Monthly forecast Verification 13–19 December 2010 Sarajevo March 2011