1. Utilization of digital dividend decisions and experiences
ITU Regional Initiative for Europe on Digital Broadcasting 5-7 November 2012, Budapest, Hungary
Utilization of digital dividend
decisions and experiences
Wladimir Bocquet
Senior Director
Global Spectrum Policy
GSM Association
We all know that mobile broadband demand is growing rapidly – faster that we thought possible even a few years ago. The rise of touch screens and smart phones has changed the way people use the internet. The idea that everyone would need a laptop to access broadband content via dongles has changed. Whilst it is clear we need more spectrum, that is not the whole story. We need the right type of spectrum too. Contiguous blocks of sufficient size will be required for as long as we have analogue front end devices in phones/tablets. This will need to feed into the decision process that will end with new IMT identifications at WRC15 (I hope!).
The growth predictions that we hear so often is a credit to all who make these technologies work but now we face a ‘nice’ problem…..you (or we as an industry) have made them too popular, that people have come to rely on them for their communication and entertainment as well as business, that data running across our mobile networks is running away from us too! I’d like to take a few moments to share with you some figures on where this growth is coming from, what the industry is currently trying to do to cope and after the WRC-12, what we really need to achieve to ensure longevity in our industry.

2. About GSMA
Representing the interests of the worldwide mobile communications industry. Nearly 800 operator members covering over 200 countries.
More than 200 associate members from the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset makers, software companies, equipment providers, Internet companies, and media and entertainment organization

3. What’s at stake for mobile industry?
Data Explosion: Rapid changes in mobile service provision such as usage trends and number of important social and behavioural changes have led to previously unpredicted patterns of data consumption amongst mobile users. Mobile data traffic is still expected to significantly increase in the coming five years
Spectrum Resource: Spectrum is the lifeblood of the mobile industry. The amount of spectrum made available and the regulatory conditions on which it is made available fundamentally drive the cost, range and availability of mobile services. Spectrum is a scarce resource and public State property
Vital input to many industries
Radio waves do not stop at national borders
cross border issues have a significant role in spectrum management
Spectrum Policy: Choosing the appropriate spectrum policy licensing framework to facilitate the large investments required in rolling out networks and introducing updated technologies and new services

4. Agenda Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary

5. Agenda Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary

6. Mobile global data traffic
Estimates data traffic based on multiple sources
The growing adoption of data services has become the major source of traffic since 2010
On the Analysis Masson forecasts , mobile traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of 42% to reach 28 000 PB per year in 2015.
Source: ITU-R M.2243 Report

7. Mobile global data traffic
Comparison of ITU-R M.2072 with Current Data
The ITU-R M Report concludes
“The current data traffic (in year 2010) is more than 5 times greater than some of the estimates for Report ITU-R M (WRC-07). “
“Actual traffic being experienced by some operators today (year 2011) is even greater than some of the 2020 forecasts given in Report ITU-R M.2072.[…].”
Source: ITU-R M Report
This Report clearly indicates that the ITU-R should consider this increasing mobile broadband traffic demand.”

8. Factors impacting traffic forecast Diversity of devices
Mobile traffic (PB per year) by device type
Tablet generates 500 times as much data traffic as a basic mobile phone
Smartphones generate, on average, around 50 times more data per month than a basic phone
Average modem/dongle use, with laptop users generating as much as 1300 times that of a “standard” 3G phone
Source: ITU, Analysys Mason
 Mobile data usage is heavily device-dependent

9. Factors impacting traffic forecast Number of devices
2020
12 Billion
Mobile Connected Devices
2011
6 Billion
Mobile Connected Devices
Source: Machina
Here we have research company Machina predicting that by 2020 we will have 24 billion connected devices of which 12 billion will be mobile….that growth is staggering but actually real if we look at how we have predicted data growth in the past…..
Mobile world has reached another milestone with Internet becoming increasingly mobile. Ericsson, based on industry information, estimates that the number of mobile subscription will reach 9 billion end of 2017
Spectrum is a key resource/element for Mobile Broadband development

10. Agenda Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary

11. Spectral efficiency Global trend towards IMT systems
IMT / IMT-Advanced family
Provides a global ecosystem with inherent mobility
Dramatically improves speed and latency

12. Frequency bands available for the development of the Mobile Broadband
Country objectives
Region 1 options
Business drivers
Below 1 GHz
800MHz
900MHz
Above 1GHz
1800MHz
2100 MHz
2600 MHz
Coverage requires low frequency spectrum for rural and in-building
Capacity requires more total spectrum
Acquire Digital Dividend
Extend licences & refarm to UMTS
Extend licences & refarm to UMTS / LTE
Acquire new spectrum
Acquire new spectrum

13. Effect of frequency on range and capex
Coverage of rural areas at about 30% of the of 2100 MHz

14. Impact of the digital dividend Band
800MHz indoor coverage
800MHz outdoor coverage
2.6GHz indoor coverage
2.6GHz outdoor coverage
Map legend
Base station

15. Maximise the harmonisation in ITU-R Region 1 Digital Dividend: 790 – 862 MHz
Harmonised technical conditions of use in the MHz frequency band for mobile broadband
ITU-R Recommendation M.1036
Maximise the harmonisation in ITU-R Region 1
Facilitate innovation and roaming
Enable economy of scale
Help managing cross-border interference
791
832
862
FDD downlink
FDD uplink
Guard
band
790
Duplex
gap
821
30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz)

16. Agenda Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary

17. The benefits of using the Digital Dividend for mobile broadband
An increasing number of countries are looking to transition from analogue TV to digital in order to reap the benefits of the digital dividend
The greater efficiency of digital broadcast networks means that it is possible to release some spectrum for other uses, notably mobile broadband
Across the world, two harmonised UHF bands have been identified for mobile broadband:
800MHz band (790–862MHz) in ITU region 1
The economic and social benefits of clearing this digital dividend spectrum for mobile use have clearly been demonstrated in numerous studies
European Commission study
Analysys Mason concluded that using the 800MHz band for wireless broadband could generate between EUR50 billion and EUR190 billion of private value in addition to social value, across the EU

18. Policy impact of usage of the Digital Dividend
Contribution to ICT ecosystem (economic contribution)
Which option contributes more to ICT suppliers
Which option contributes more to GDP and creation of industry jobs?
Direct economic contribution
Scenario definition
(spectrum allocated to broadcasting or mobile broadband?)
Which option contributes more to other sector of the economy in term of GDP growth and jobs?
Indirect economic contribution
Which option provides more benefits (“welfare”) to society?
Social impact

19. Value creation can be estimated in terms of its economic and social impacts and benefits
Contribution to the GDP growth
Direct contribution to the economy
Direct job creation
Supply
Side
effects
Contribution to the GDP growth
Indirect contribution to the economy
Indirect job creation
Additional taxes
Demand
Side
effects
Consumer surplus

20. Socio-economic benefit Allocating harmonised mobile broadband
Analysys Mason:
Saudi could attain over 400k jobs by 2020 with the availability of DD and 2.6GHz
BCG:
$1trillion GDP impact from DD in Asia Pacific
AHCIET:
DD will contribute US$15billion to Latin America
Plum:
GDP increase by 5.2% - directly lifting 40M people out of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa
Deloitte:
US$15billion MNO Investment in mobile broadband in next 2 years in Brazil
Significant socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised spectrum to deliver mobile broadband (GDP and job growth..)

21. Spectrum Award Design
Auctions can provide an economically efficient means to allocate spectrum
When there is competition for scarce spectrum resources
When demand is expected to exceed supply
But not the only option available to government to manage spectrum allocation and should only be used in appropriate circumstances
Consultation with the operators, and others stakeholders is essential
There is no ‘one fits all’ design for spectrum auctions. Each auction needs to be designed to meet the market circumstances and to achieve the specific objectives of the auction
Auctions should be designed
To realise the long term economic value of the spectrum to the economy as a whole
Not to maximise short-term revenue for governments.
to be fair, transparent and appropriately designed for the specific market circumstances

22. Recent results of Digital Dividend auctions in Europe

23. Situation in Germany
The 800MHz band was awarded through auction in March The licences included coverage obligations requiring licensees to roll-out services to the most rural communities first, which previously had inadequate broadband services, before moving to more populated areas.
The spectrum was awarded to T-Mobile (Deutsche Telekom), Vodafone, and Telefónica (which uses the O2 brand)
The first operator to use this band was Vodafone when it commenced its LTE roll out in September T-Mobile subsequently launched LTE using the 800MHz band in April 2011, with Telefónica launching the LTE using this band in July of the same year.
Within 12/18 months, the LTE800 coverage obligations have been fulfilled in 12 Federal states.
Source: BNetzA

24. Situation in Sweden
In March 2011 the Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS) auctioned the 800MHz band. The spectrum was awarded in 2×5MHz blocks, with the block at the top of the band (FDD6) having a coverage obligation attached to the licence. This coverage obligation required the operators to cover specific rural geographies with mobile broadband. These geographies previously had inadequate broadband coverage.
The spectrum was awarded to TeliaSonera, Net4Mobility (a joint venture between Telenor and Tele2), and Hutchison 3G. Net4Mobility acquired the spectrum licence with the coverage obligation.
TeliaSonera began the deployment of LTE using 800MHz spectrum days after the auction process ended, with Hutchison 3G launching in the spring of
Source: PTS

25. Agenda Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary

26. Summary Meeting the growth in demand for mobile services
Data demand continues to grow
Additional spectrum being made available and ensuring that the spectrum goes to the use and users which will maximise its benefits to society
Facilitating international harmonisation to support roaming and enable scale economies to lower the cost of equipment
Evaluate the global benefit of the Mobile Broadband in the Digital Dividend
Significant socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised spectrum to deliver mobile broadband (GDP and job growth..) 26

27. THANK YOU