1. New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products John A. Knaff – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Alison Krautkramer – NCEP/TPC - NHC, Miami, FL Mark DeMaria – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher – CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO

2. Outline Planned updates to the operational CIRA/NESDIS – NCEP AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm Current algorithm and uses Planned updates Possible new use Schedule Plans for a new operational Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) product Description of the new product 2007 verification (H*Wind, best track wind radii) Planned products Schedule 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 2

3. Current Product Uses the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from NOAA – 15, -16, -18 – Fix or V max, MSLP, & wind radii estimates – Radial vs. Height cross-sections of pressures, balance winds & temperatures on height surfaces – Horizontal heights, temperatures, & winds on standard pressure surfaces – Statistics related to the fix estimate 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 3

4. Some Current Uses Operational intensity and structure guidance Phase space diagrams (Bob Hart, FSU) Near surface winds (MTC-SWA, plans for H*wind) Examining extratropical transition (Pat Harr) 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 4

5. Planned Updates and Demonstrations Additional AMSU data NASA Aqua European Met-Op New Utilizations MTC-SWA, H*Wind Vertical Wind Shear estimates Depth of the steering level 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 5

6. Example of the 2-d Winds 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 6

7. Estimates of Vertical Wind Shear 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 7 2004-2007 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones NCEP 6 o average Versus AMSU 6 o average

8. Schedule (Time Table) May 2008 – Project starts Requested through TPC Spring 2008 - NCO to develop BUFR readers (Aqua and Met Op) Received - Get statistical retrieval coefficients from NESDIS Summer 2008 - Coordinate with TPC Summer 2008 - Modify Code to accept Aqua and Met Op data Fall/Winter 2008 – testing with TPC help Spring 2009 - Transition to operations at NCO 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 8

9. MTC-SWA Description Optimally combines and quality controls satellite-based, near surface wind observations and proxy winds – AMSU 2-d 850 or 700 hPa winds (Bessho et al 2006) – Cloud Drift/Water Vapor/ IR winds (e.g., Nieman et al., 1997) – Scatterometery (QuikSCAT, A-SCAT) – GOES IR flight-level proxy (Mueller et al 2006 with a few modifications) Creates a low-level wind field analysis (Variational approach, weighted) Applies a simple surface reductions over ocean & land which are loosely based on Franklin et al (2003) & Boose et al (2001) 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 9

10. Input: Hurricane DEAN 2007 20 August 06 UTC 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 10

11. 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 11 Analysis: Hurricane Dean 2007 20 August 06 UTC

12. Verification/Comparison vs. H*Wind 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 12

13. Verification/Comparison vs. NHC wind radii Wind Radii ErrorsDetection of Wind Radii 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 13 *Climatology from Knaff et al. (2007) 107,66,42 nmi for R34,50 & 64 HKD = (Hit Rate) – (False Alarm Rate)

14. Planned Products ATCF (JTWC & NHC) – Analysis Fix (PR; V max, RMW, R34, R50, R64, MSLP) CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Site – Analysis Plots – Dynamic MSLP estimation – Flight-level kinetic energy estimation matching Maclay et al. (2008) methodology. 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 14

15. Examples Dynamical MSLP estimationKinetic Energy (0-200km) 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 15 Flight-level KE Felix (2007)

16. Schedule for MTC-SWA May 2008 – Project Starts Summer 2008 – Run Experimental Product at CIRA & Establish data flow at NESDIS Winter 2008 - Install Software at NESDIS, Verify output, modify algorithm as necessary Spring 2009 - Begin running the product at NESDIS Winter 2009 – Develop the NESDIS/SSD Web Page, dissemination to ATCF from NESDIS Spring 2010 – Finish operational transition 3-7 March 2008 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference 16

17. QUESTIONS? 3-7 March 200817 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference